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Old Apr 7, 2022 | 5:24 am
  #1711  
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I know this has recently become the "Current China Exit strategy" thread, but to briefly return to the "Entry" theme again:
Looks like they're going to further limit arrivals by reducing the aircraft loads from 75% to only 40%. Expect even higher prices....


"Two sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters that flights arriving into Shanghai from abroad would have to have a load factor - an airline industry measure of seat occupancy - of just 40% from next Monday till the end of the month.

That compares with a previous load factor cap of 75%...."



https://www.usnews.com/news/world/ar...es?context=amp
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Old Apr 7, 2022 | 6:50 am
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Originally Posted by narvik
I know this has recently become the "Current China Exit strategy" thread, but to briefly return to the "Entry" theme again:
Looks like they're going to further limit arrivals by reducing the aircraft loads from 75% to only 40%. Expect even higher prices....


"Two sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters that flights arriving into Shanghai from abroad would have to have a load factor - an airline industry measure of seat occupancy - of just 40% from next Monday till the end of the month.

That compares with a previous load factor cap of 75%...."



https://www.usnews.com/news/world/ar...es?context=amp
Where will they put these shanghai arrivals? The quarantine rooms should be fully booked based on the number of people I know being told to stay in their own room rather than taken to a quarantine center.

At least they still continue the minute details of every imported case each day along with the extra 20k cases in shanghai (which Im hearing is a massive understatement).

My friend wrote the consulate to see if there were any plans for evacuation charters for American citizens. They told him to find his own way homea bit of a challenge.
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Old Apr 7, 2022 | 7:40 am
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https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/gDa7m6-B0HDmmV8g7iY8VA

This guy flew to China on Jan 1 2022, tested positive, spent 3 months in quarantine hotels, and then flew back to the US on April 1st 2022.

Some quotes (translated):
From the first quarantine place where he is in the same room as other people: There is no medical treatment. We don't have any symptoms, so we just wait for the virus in our body to slowly go away as a natural process.
Near the end: The situation is the same as described in the recent recording on the Internet: the health cloud app says negative. The CDC says you are positive, but they don't give you a notification. They just say that there is a problem and you need to go to a hospital and can't be let out of quarantine.
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Old Apr 7, 2022 | 7:41 am
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Originally Posted by travelinmanS
Where will they put these shanghai arrivals? The quarantine rooms should be fully booked based on the number of people I know being told to stay in their own room rather than taken to a quarantine center.

At least they still continue the minute details of every imported case each day along with the extra 20k cases in shanghai (which Im hearing is a massive understatement).

My friend wrote the consulate to see if there were any plans for evacuation charters for American citizens. They told him to find his own way homea bit of a challenge.
I think you shouldn't panik as long as you've a stock of food at home. Reality will force a change upon their 0-covid police VERY soon.

If they somehow try keep it going, they'll end up (the party..) on the short end of the stick.
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Old Apr 7, 2022 | 11:05 am
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Originally Posted by STS-134
https://weekly.chinacdc.cn/news/TrackingtheEpidemic.htm

March 25: 4988 cases
March 26: 5765 cases
March 27: 5702 cases
March 28: 6409 cases
March 29: 7051 cases
March 30: 8825 cases
March 31: 8559 cases
April 1: 7386 cases
April 2: 9998 cases
April 3: 13287 cases
April 4: 13267 cases
April 5: 16590 cases
April 6: 20614 cases

Seems the doubling time is getting smaller, and went from ~8 days to ~4 days. Should we make bets on when they'll start seeing > 100k cases/day? If this rate of growth continues, it could happen by the end of April.
These are under reported numbers. I suspect that Shanghai already has 1 million infections.

Originally Posted by travelinmanS
I really hope they find a way to back away from zero Covid. People are gonna start to get real desperate in about a week if they food situation remains the same here.
One week? What about one month? It's going to be really ugly.

Originally Posted by narvik
I know this has recently become the "Current China Exit strategy" thread, but to briefly return to the "Entry" theme again:
Looks like they're going to further limit arrivals by reducing the aircraft loads from 75% to only 40%. Expect even higher prices....

"Two sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters that flights arriving into Shanghai from abroad would have to have a load factor - an airline industry measure of seat occupancy - of just 40% from next Monday till the end of the month.

That compares with a previous load factor cap of 75%...."

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/ar...es?context=amp
My friends are booked UA 857 on April 15 and 20. Load factor is already 70%.

UA needs to dump someone if 40% is required. This sucks.

Originally Posted by YuropFlyer
I think you shouldn't panik as long as you've a stock of food at home. Reality will force a change upon their 0-covid police VERY soon.

If they somehow try keep it going, they'll end up (the party..) on the short end of the stick.
The Emperor and his kingdom dig a big hole. They keep digging, because the face of the emperor is the only thing matters.

Let's see if they keep it going for 10 years because they can. They are stubborn.
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Old Apr 7, 2022 | 11:39 am
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Originally Posted by narvik
Made it to Auckland!
​​​​​👍🏼
Send pics so we can live vicariously! But maybe no photos food for now.....
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Old Apr 7, 2022 | 12:26 pm
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Originally Posted by kb1992
These are under reported numbers. I suspect that Shanghai already has 1 million infections.
My friend in SH has tested positive on an antigen test...after being in isolation for almost a month. Her housing complex had some confirmed cases a while back, well before Puxi locked down, so nobody has been able to leave the area for that long. Someone in the same building must have somehow gotten infected and left droplets in a common area (but so far, no positive tests, at least not officially). Only time she ever sees people outside of her family was when getting tested (and people were maintaining social distance and it was outdoors) and when taking deliveries, which, due to the short duration of contact and outdoor environment, is almost impossible to get infected. So I suspect it's either someone else on her floor (although they have all tested negative, as of yesterday, but it could be that they just are part of the 30-40% who aren't infectious enough to trigger an antigen test) or someone who was in the elevator or lobby area. We've seen those tests they did where droplets can hang in the air for 30+ minutes if the ventilation is poor. She said she wore an N95 mask around *most* of the time, but not *all* of the time, and she must have let her guard down when she shouldn't have. No symptoms except for a sore throat thus far but as of yesterday it was her first day of symptoms. The good news is that wherever she got it, it probably wasn't a very high initial dose.
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Old Apr 7, 2022 | 5:15 pm
  #1718  
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Originally Posted by kb1992

My friends are booked UA 857 on April 15 and 20. Load factor is already 70%.

UA needs to dump someone if 40% is required. This sucks.



.
The best thing that could ever happen to your friends is that UA cuts them off these flights. You have to be insane to come to China now!! People are fighting over food supply!!! Why would they even consider coming here??!!
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Old Apr 7, 2022 | 5:26 pm
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Originally Posted by YuropFlyer
I think you shouldn't panik as long as you've a stock of food at home. Reality will force a change upon their 0-covid police VERY soon.

If they somehow try keep it going, they'll end up (the party..) on the short end of the stick.
I think you are overestimating both the intelligence and compassion of the people running the show here.
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Old Apr 8, 2022 | 3:14 pm
  #1720  
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Originally Posted by travelinmanS
The best thing that could ever happen to your friends is that UA cuts them off these flights. You have to be insane to come to China now!! People are fighting over food supply!!! Why would they even consider coming here??!!
Just got an email from UA, their tickets are canceled.

=================================================

As a result of an unanticipated mandate from the Shanghai Government, we had to cancel your reservation XXXXXX for flight 857 from San Francisco to Shanghai on 4/15/2022.

Please contact United at 1-877-826-0254 to review rebooking options or to request a refund. For more information on our cancellation and refund policies, go to united.com/refund. We are sorry for this inconvenience and appreciate your understanding and cooperation during the process.

If you have a comment or complaint about your travel disruption, we suggest raising it with the Chinese government in the U.S. or its consulate office.

================================================== ========


So, UA is telling us to complain to the Chinese government LOL
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Old Apr 8, 2022 | 3:37 pm
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Originally Posted by kb1992
So, UA is telling us to complain to the Chinese government LOL
Americans need to gather at PVG and sing the Star Spangled Banner until they get a flight home.
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Old Apr 8, 2022 | 4:13 pm
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Originally Posted by HkCaGu
Americans need to gather at PVG and sing the Star Spangled Banner until they get a flight home.
This is about flights TO China, not FROM China.

Glad to help..
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Old Apr 8, 2022 | 4:27 pm
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Originally Posted by YuropFlyer
This is about flights TO China, not FROM China.

Glad to help..
How do you get flights FROM anywhere if there aren't flights TO there? Unless you're talking about an airport like PAE.
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Old Apr 8, 2022 | 4:31 pm
  #1724  
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Originally Posted by STS-134
How do you get flights FROM anywhere if there aren't flights TO there? Unless you're talking about an airport like PAE.
Not sure what you're trying to say.

The case which kb1992 has brought forward is about pax having their flights cancelled because the PRC reduced allowed occupancy rate on flights TO China.

Those flights can still leave with normal occupancy when departing FROM China, unless I'm mistaken. So pax booked on flights departing FROM China are not affected.

Same aircraft. Inbound to China (PRC) maximum capacity is cut, Outbound from China (PRC), it's not.
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Old Apr 8, 2022 | 5:13 pm
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Originally Posted by YuropFlyer
Not sure what you're trying to say.

The case which kb1992 has brought forward is about pax having their flights cancelled because the PRC reduced allowed occupancy rate on flights TO China.

Those flights can still leave with normal occupancy when departing FROM China, unless I'm mistaken. So pax booked on flights departing FROM China are not affected.

Same aircraft. Inbound to China (PRC) maximum capacity is cut, Outbound from China (PRC), it's not.
Ah, I see. The reservation was cancelled, not the entire flight.
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