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Current China Entry policy

Old Mar 15, 22, 9:12 pm
  #1561  
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Originally Posted by narvik View Post
I am already booked on a PVG-AKL flight (in J, with miles....for cheap! lol) ----> that is Plan A....what I am after now is Plan B!
I assume you booked NZ as Plan A. My Plan B would be the MU flight. No matter how much we complain about Shanghai, it's not that scary. Plus, you won't even need to leave the airport.
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Old Mar 16, 22, 5:18 am
  #1562  
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Originally Posted by travelinmanS View Post
Just got the notice sent to my wechat at 4:30am. My community in Shanghai is now under lockdown. The gates went up in front of the compound right after and we all need to take 2 tests within 48 hours before we are released. I doubt that we will be released then however as I don’t see the spread of Omicron stopping and I’m hunkering in for a long incarceration.

Now I can sit alone in my thoughts as I watch my Chinese tech stocks collapse! Definitely is stepping up the timing of my exit plan.
I saw this post when I got up this morning and my initial reaction was that you got unlucky. However, as the morning rolled on, I received word from everyone I know in Xuhui that they had also been selected...and everyone they know in Xuhui also got the notice. At that point, it was clear that people weren't being selected because there were positive cases in their compounds; rather, this was a catch-all deal. I still hadn't been summoned myself yet but knew it was coming...and, I wanted to enjoy the amazing weather before hunkering down. So, I decided to walk up to Jing'an again --this time up Wulumuqi Rd-- and try out the lobster roll place (Shanxi Bei Lu / Kangding Lu...basically between the Shed and Bubba's).


As I left my place, I noticed lots of testing sites with the requisite snowmen along Yongjia Rd.

And also many policemen. I realize this picture doesn't convey such; I'm a little shy wrt cop photos.

But in-person dining is definitely still happening at most restaurants here. As I mentioned yesterday, Jing'an has cracked down hard on this.

This is a picture of Nanjing Rd. facing east towards Jing'an Temple, which you can see on the left side of the street if you look hard enough (it is gold). I was amazed that there weren't any cars at all. (It is one of the busiest streets in Shanghai.)

After about 45 minutes of walking, I reached my goal, Will's Lobster. This is the menu.

And this is the product. I had low expectations because I grew up eating the real deal. However, I must say that it was pretty damn good. A little smaller than what I regard as standard, but Y93 would be a good price even in Boston.

At some point during my walk the lockdown notice showed up in my WeChat. It instructed me to go to the elementary school next to my compound. The process wasn't so bad.

Now I'm back home. The deal is I can get my second test (also a throat swab, I think) at 10a tomorrow morning. And, once the result comes back, I'll be in the clear. The testing people told me to stay home, and I will. However, in my case, nothing would prevent me from fleeing (i.e. the gates are not locked). I would simply feel stupid if I flaunted this rule and got busted. I'm guessing I would stick out like a sore thumb if I wandered about because it appears that they've tested pretty everyone they could in this district. I mentioned all of the snowmen and police in Xuhui. I didn't see any in Jing'an. So, my theory is that they're moving around from district to district. I don't completely see the point of this exercise, but there are lots of things I don't understand about China. All in all, I don't feel particularly inconvenienced though. I'll just pretend tomorrow is a rainy day (even though it won't be).
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Last edited by moondog; Mar 16, 22 at 5:34 am
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Old Mar 16, 22, 5:45 am
  #1563  
 
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Quite an eventful day, Moondog.

Our compound is completely locked. We can go outside, use the tennis court, gym, etc. but just can't leave. But when I left to get testing, no one was following me so I walked around a bit and got a coffee.

The concern now is the backlog of tests and how that impacts our release timing.
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Old Mar 16, 22, 10:25 am
  #1564  
 
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So I am realizing there are different levels of lockdown. I guess to some extent it is the honor system whether someone "just goes to get tested" when they leave their house. And even in locked down places some eateries are open?
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Old Mar 16, 22, 11:37 am
  #1565  
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Originally Posted by narvik View Post
So, it's starting on March 21st (not 17th, as everyone had predicted):

Flights to Shanghai from abroad to be diverted

More than 100 international flights to Shanghai will be diverted to one of a dozen different domestic airports beginning March 21 to help relieve the city's recent COVID-19 prevention pressure.

The 106 flights to be diverted are on 22 routes operated by five domestic airlines Air China, China Eastern, Shanghai Airlines, Juneyao and Spring, the Civil Aviation Administration of China ( CAAC) announced on Tuesday.



https://www.shine.cn/news/metro/2203153131/
Not sure if you have looked into the UA 858 PVG-ICN-SFO. I flew on Feb 28 when UA 857 was not carrying passengers (just cargo). The oubound flight from China to the US can still carry passengers.

May be the diversion won't impact the inbound cargo flight.
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Old Mar 16, 22, 5:46 pm
  #1566  
 
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Originally Posted by gudugan View Post
Good analysis. Option 1 isn't feasible. The data was just released from late 2020 phase 1 trial of ARCoV (domestic mRNA vaccine) and phase 3 is not released/keeps getting postponed. Basically, it's highly likely that ARCoV doesn't work for Omicron (if it works at all). https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journ...21)00280-9.pdf They can't get enough Moderna/BioNTech even if they wanted to (politics notwithstanding) and distribution will take a long time.
ARCoV will just need a third shot for Omicron, same as Pfizer and Moderna. There's no data indicating that it'll be significantly worse than the other two mRNA vaccines (which still aren't great) against Omicron after a booster.




https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-022-00626-w
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Old Mar 16, 22, 6:06 pm
  #1567  
 
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Originally Posted by boat stuck View Post
ARCoV will just need a third shot for Omicron, same as Pfizer and Moderna. There's no data indicating that it'll be significantly worse than the other two mRNA vaccines (which still aren't great) against Omicron after a booster.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-022-00626-w
I have no interest in playing armchair virologist but the article you linked says they only tested this in mice not humans. Manufacturing and distribution is still a problem.
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Old Mar 16, 22, 7:02 pm
  #1568  
 
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Originally Posted by gudugan View Post
I have no interest in playing armchair virologist but the article you linked says they only tested this in mice not humans. Manufacturing and distribution is still a problem.
You're the one who started this "armchair virologist" discussion. The Lancet article you linked in your original post had nothing to justify your statement that "Basically, it's highly likely that ARCoV doesn't work for Omicron (if it works at all)". You have not linked to any other study, human or mouse, that proves "ARCoV doesn't work for Omicron."

Now you're claiming you "have no interest in playing armchair virologist" when confronted with contrary evidence.
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Old Mar 16, 22, 7:14 pm
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Yes, if there's no large-scale test data on humans we have no definitive answer if it works.

I didn't know about the article you posted. The original link I posted was data from late 2020 (released this month) when no one even knew Omicron existed so it's unclear if that formulation works for Omicron. The phase 3 data from ARCoV still hasn't been published to my knowledge, and your article says at the end ARCoV-Omicron is approaching clinical trials, so there also isn't any data there either.

Note also in the phase 1 ARCoV trial they didn't even try it on anyone over the age of 60, which should be the target population.
Developing a mRNA vaccine is nontrivial especially in China because they can't license the IP from other companies and have to do everything from scratch. It's not similar to an inactivated vaccine like Sinovac where the technology is well known.
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Old Mar 16, 22, 7:25 pm
  #1570  
 
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Originally Posted by gudugan View Post
Yes, if there's no large-scale test data on humans we have no definitive answer if it works.
Having "no definitive answer if it works" is a very different assertion from: "Basically, it's highly likely that ARCoV doesn't work for Omicron (if it works at all)"
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Old Mar 16, 22, 7:28 pm
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Originally Posted by boat stuck View Post
ARCoV will just need a third shot for Omicron, same as Pfizer and Moderna. There's no data indicating that it'll be significantly worse than the other two mRNA vaccines (which still aren't great) against Omicron after a booster.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-022-00626-w
In science nobody says there is 'no data' to prove it is worse. You do not presume non-inferiority. You have to prove it.
And why quote a mice study, as nobody cares about those. Alzheimer's has been cured in mice. Care to tell me which drug is available for humans?
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Last edited by NewbieRunner; Mar 17, 22 at 3:17 am Reason: Removed image from quoted post for readability
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Old Mar 16, 22, 7:51 pm
  #1572  
 
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People, please, lets keep this thread clear from COVID related details. 🙏
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Old Mar 16, 22, 8:07 pm
  #1573  
 
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Originally Posted by s0ssos View Post
In science nobody says there is 'no data' to prove it is worse. You do not presume non-inferiority. You have to prove it.
And why quote a mice study, as nobody cares about those. Alzheimer's has been cured in mice. Care to tell me which drug is available for humans?

That was a response to: "Basically, it's highly likely that ARCoV doesn't work for Omicron (if it works at all)."

I was pointing out that he presented no support for that assertion. In fact, the Lancet study and the more recent Cell study suggest the opposite, that ARCoV is likely to be broadly comparable. Given how recent Omicron is, it makes sense that mice results are the first available, and they look promising.
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Old Mar 16, 22, 8:35 pm
  #1574  
 
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Originally Posted by boat stuck View Post
That was a response to: "Basically, it's highly likely that ARCoV doesn't work for Omicron (if it works at all)."

I was pointing out that he presented no support for that assertion. In fact, the Lancet study and the more recent Cell study suggest the opposite, that ARCoV is likely to be broadly comparable. Given how recent Omicron is, it makes sense that mice results are the first available, and they look promising.
When there is no data it is best to use logic, or comparable things. I don't know that mRNA technology is that easy. Presumably many companies have tried but only 2 have succeeded.

India has developed a mRNA vaccine (Gennova), and it would be interesting to see how that compares. They are running trials.

One question I have for the trials for ARCoV is how will they get enough patients? I'd presume most in China are already vaccinated. It is easy enough to find unvaccinated patients in the West, but they obviously won't volunteer.
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Old Mar 17, 22, 2:15 am
  #1575  
 
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Originally Posted by UA_Flyer View Post
Not sure if you have looked into the UA 858 PVG-ICN-SFO. I flew on Feb 28 when UA 857 was not carrying passengers (just cargo). The oubound flight from China to the US can still carry passengers.

May be the diversion won't impact the inbound cargo flight.
For now, the change to PVG flights only affects Chinese carriers.

UA/AA/DL stay at PVG.
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