Current China Entry policy
Mar 15, 2022 | 3:39 am
#1531
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Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 46,325
I know this thread is entitled "Current China Entry policy", but I have a question on EXIT:
What's the best way to plan an exit in the next few weeks?
Are Shanghai domestic & international flights still leaving/arriving as scheduled for the next few weeks, and can one still currently fly PEK ----> SHA/PVG?
What's the best way to plan an exit in the next few weeks?
Are Shanghai domestic & international flights still leaving/arriving as scheduled for the next few weeks, and can one still currently fly PEK ----> SHA/PVG?
Mar 15, 2022 | 3:41 am
#1532
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: HNL
Posts: 1,165
I know this thread is entitled "Current China Entry policy", but I have a question on EXIT:
What's the best way to plan an exit in the next few weeks?
Are Shanghai domestic & international flights still leaving/arriving as scheduled for the next few weeks, and can one still currently fly PEK ----> SHA/PVG?
What's the best way to plan an exit in the next few weeks?
Are Shanghai domestic & international flights still leaving/arriving as scheduled for the next few weeks, and can one still currently fly PEK ----> SHA/PVG?
Mar 15, 2022 | 4:07 am
#1533
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Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 46,325
Mar 15, 2022 | 4:27 am
#1534
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: HNL
Posts: 1,165
In any case, lots of flights canceled, but still possible to fly PEK-SHA.
Mar 15, 2022 | 4:35 am
#1535
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Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 46,325
Got you. It could simply be an overcapacity issue. There's a lot of supply on that route now and I don't know of many people itching to fly it. Still, if I did go up there, I'd definitely fly. My friend that commutes to Beijing weekly told me that the covid police on the train are quite overbearing.
Mar 15, 2022 | 6:03 am
#1536
Join Date: May 2010
Location: AVP & PEK
Programs: UA 1K 2MM
Posts: 7,860
I was more concerned about individual cities locking down; i.e. if Beijing locks down, it might not be that easy to leave.
Mar 15, 2022 | 6:55 am
#1537
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Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 46,325
I didn't think about that variable and it's possible that the Chinese haven't made accommodations for it either. I'm guessing that only about 1 in 100 people has been hit with lockdowns here in Shanghai since the latest madness started last week. Even if that number goes up to 5%, I like the odds. But, if I was locked down the day before my departure, I'd make an appeal for an early release. If that failed (likely), it's rebooking time. I suppose choosing a flight that operates more than once or twice a week might be a decent hedge though.
Mar 15, 2022 | 7:54 am
#1538
Join Date: May 2010
Location: AVP & PEK
Programs: UA 1K 2MM
Posts: 7,860
So, it's starting on March 21st (not 17th, as everyone had predicted):
The 106 flights to be diverted are on 22 routes operated by five domestic airlines – Air China, China Eastern, Shanghai Airlines, Juneyao and Spring, the Civil Aviation Administration of China ( CAAC) announced on Tuesday.
https://www.shine.cn/news/metro/2203153131/
Flights to Shanghai from abroad to be diverted
More than 100 international flights to Shanghai will be diverted to one of a dozen different domestic airports beginning March 21 to help relieve the city's recent COVID-19 prevention pressure.The 106 flights to be diverted are on 22 routes operated by five domestic airlines – Air China, China Eastern, Shanghai Airlines, Juneyao and Spring, the Civil Aviation Administration of China ( CAAC) announced on Tuesday.
https://www.shine.cn/news/metro/2203153131/
Mar 15, 2022 | 7:59 am
#1539
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Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 46,325
So, it's starting on March 21st (not 17th, as everyone had predicted):
The 106 flights to be diverted are on 22 routes operated by five domestic airlines Air China, China Eastern, Shanghai Airlines, Juneyao and Spring, the Civil Aviation Administration of China ( CAAC) announced on Tuesday.
https://www.shine.cn/news/metro/2203153131/
Flights to Shanghai from abroad to be diverted
More than 100 international flights to Shanghai will be diverted to one of a dozen different domestic airports beginning March 21 to help relieve the city's recent COVID-19 prevention pressure.The 106 flights to be diverted are on 22 routes operated by five domestic airlines Air China, China Eastern, Shanghai Airlines, Juneyao and Spring, the Civil Aviation Administration of China ( CAAC) announced on Tuesday.
https://www.shine.cn/news/metro/2203153131/
Mar 15, 2022 | 8:14 am
#1540
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 7,934
Has China locked down an entire first-tier city?
Mar 15, 2022 | 8:25 am
#1541
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Location: Shanghai
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Mar 15, 2022 | 8:28 am
#1542
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 7,934
Good analysis. Option 1 isn't feasible. The data was just released from late 2020 phase 1 trial of ARCoV (domestic mRNA vaccine) and phase 3 is not released/keeps getting postponed. Basically, it's highly likely that ARCoV doesn't work for Omicron (if it works at all). https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journ...21)00280-9.pdf They can't get enough Moderna/BioNTech even if they wanted to (politics notwithstanding) and distribution will take a long time.
Option 2 is already happening. This is the only tool they can use. Unfortunately the correct thing to do with this strategy is overreact rather than underreact; if you overreact people are unhappy in the short term but it might be successful. If you underreact people are fine in the short term but it runs the risk of the strategy failing completely. Part of the problem is that they keep firing all the local government leads when there is an outbreak, which generally leads to more incompetence over time.
If you read the latest Zhang Wenhong (from 13 March) the TLDR is they do want to move away from Zero Covid but also that they need to control the virus. So basically both sides, or nothing at all. For what it's worth, he does mention that it is becoming less deadly. I don't know if the average person cares or reads these articles.
Full text: ???????_????_???????????????????????????. Relevant part translated below (lol @ daily mail as a source)
Option 2 is already happening. This is the only tool they can use. Unfortunately the correct thing to do with this strategy is overreact rather than underreact; if you overreact people are unhappy in the short term but it might be successful. If you underreact people are fine in the short term but it runs the risk of the strategy failing completely. Part of the problem is that they keep firing all the local government leads when there is an outbreak, which generally leads to more incompetence over time.
If you read the latest Zhang Wenhong (from 13 March) the TLDR is they do want to move away from Zero Covid but also that they need to control the virus. So basically both sides, or nothing at all. For what it's worth, he does mention that it is becoming less deadly. I don't know if the average person cares or reads these articles.
Full text: ???????_????_???????????????????????????. Relevant part translated below (lol @ daily mail as a source)
And the mRNA vaccines made by pfizer and moderna aren't very effective against omicron, which leads me to presume the Chinese vaccines are basically useless. So you basically have a whole country of unvaccinated people.
Mar 15, 2022 | 8:32 am
#1543
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Mar 15, 2022 | 8:48 am
#1544
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 7,934
So Shenzhen had 60 new cases on Sunday and thus got locked down but Shanghai had 64 and didn't?
Mar 15, 2022 | 8:54 am
#1545
Join Date: May 2010
Location: AVP & PEK
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