Originally Posted by gudugan

Good analysis. Option 1 isn't feasible. The data was just released from late 2020 phase 1 trial of ARCoV (domestic mRNA vaccine) and phase 3 is not released/keeps getting postponed. Basically, it's highly likely that ARCoV doesn't work for Omicron (if it works at all). https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journ...21)00280-9.pdf They can't get enough Moderna/BioNTech even if they wanted to (politics notwithstanding) and distribution will take a long time.

Option 2 is already happening. This is the only tool they can use. Unfortunately the correct thing to do with this strategy is overreact rather than underreact; if you overreact people are unhappy in the short term but it might be successful. If you underreact people are fine in the short term but it runs the risk of the strategy failing completely. Part of the problem is that they keep firing all the local government leads when there is an outbreak, which generally leads to more incompetence over time.

If you read the latest Zhang Wenhong (from 13 March) the TLDR is they do want to move away from Zero Covid but also that they need to control the virus. So basically both sides, or nothing at all. For what it's worth, he does mention that it is becoming less deadly. I don't know if the average person cares or reads these articles.
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