Jan 6, 2019, 6:09 pm
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes."New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017
(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
Elite status
- Concierge Key
- Executive Platinum
- Platinum Pro
- Platinum
- Gold
Upgrade type
- Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
- 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
- 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)
Then, by
- Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
- Booking class
- Time of request
See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017
Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017
ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)
Sep 15, 2019, 2:23 pm
#857
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA EXP; Marriott BonVoy Titanium Elite, Marriott LT Plat.
Posts: 1,717
RM holding tight on to those two last seats on A319 (SAT-PHX) for 6:50 PM departure on Wednesday. Guess they're sticking with their metrics. My upgrade from PHX-SFO (A321 )came two days ago at this point. LOL
Sep 15, 2019, 10:43 pm
#858
Join Date: Mar 2014
Programs: Choice Hotels
Posts: 762
I have newish platinum pro status
On 9/18 I am booked
2337 OKC-DFW Confirmed at 72 Hour mark 738
1910 DFW-PHX Confirmed at 72 Hour mark 321
710 PHX-SEA Waitlisted (app shows 4 F seats open) 321
I was surprised with my upgrade on 1910. It is the first time I have been upgraded at all on a Hub-Hub flight, and it confirmed at 72 hours.
On 9/18 I am booked
2337 OKC-DFW Confirmed at 72 Hour mark 738
1910 DFW-PHX Confirmed at 72 Hour mark 321
710 PHX-SEA Waitlisted (app shows 4 F seats open) 321
I was surprised with my upgrade on 1910. It is the first time I have been upgraded at all on a Hub-Hub flight, and it confirmed at 72 hours.
Last edited by thunderdeacon; Sep 15, 2019 at 10:51 pm Reason: Incomplete
Sep 22, 2019, 11:59 am
#859
Suspended
Join Date: May 2013
Location: NYC
Programs: DL Diamond, AAdvantage EXP, Hyatt Explorist, HHonors Diamond, Avis First
Posts: 7,344
So I am within the UPG window for EXP on a domestic flight.....AA.com shows SWU availability. In the past, as long as this was showing my comp EXP UPG would clear, but now it doesn't. Did something change?
Sep 22, 2019, 12:26 pm
#860
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,502
Seeing C space on a domestic flight within the upgrade windows is certainly a good indicator that AA will most likely release R space at some point, however it has never been 'guaranteed' or directly correlated 1 to 1, as far as I know.
Sep 23, 2019, 7:43 am
#861
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Finland
Posts: 27
First time ever watching what will happen to my upgrade requests (Plat status.) Booked in PE with W code LHR-ORD AA99 9/29 and ORD-LHR AA98 10/4 so 15k points.
AA99 has J7 R7 D7 I5 W4 P0 and AA98 J7 R7 D7 I3 W0 P0, fingers crossed.
AA99 9/29
9/23: J7 R7 D7 I5 W4 P0
9/25: J7 R7 D7 I4 W5 P0 (over 100 hours so no upgrades yet processed? No C availability)
9/26: J7 R7 D7 I7 W5 P0 (just under 3 days to go so within EXP and PP upgrade window, 10 hours later J/R/D/I=5)
9/27: J5 R5 D5 I5 W3 P0(less than 48 hours to go)
AA98 10/4
9/23: J7 R7 D7 I3 W0 P0
9/25: J7 R7 D7 I0 W0 P0
9/26: J7 R7 D7 I5 W1 P1
9/27: J7 R7 D7 I5 W1 P1
AA99 has J7 R7 D7 I5 W4 P0 and AA98 J7 R7 D7 I3 W0 P0, fingers crossed.
AA99 9/29
9/23: J7 R7 D7 I5 W4 P0
9/25: J7 R7 D7 I4 W5 P0 (over 100 hours so no upgrades yet processed? No C availability)
9/26: J7 R7 D7 I7 W5 P0 (just under 3 days to go so within EXP and PP upgrade window, 10 hours later J/R/D/I=5)
9/27: J5 R5 D5 I5 W3 P0(less than 48 hours to go)
AA98 10/4
9/23: J7 R7 D7 I3 W0 P0
9/25: J7 R7 D7 I0 W0 P0
9/26: J7 R7 D7 I5 W1 P1
9/27: J7 R7 D7 I5 W1 P1
Last edited by mellimies; Sep 27, 2019 at 12:52 am Reason: tracking availability
Sep 23, 2019, 2:56 pm
#862
Join Date: Jul 2019
Posts: 4
Just wanted to report in that I was upgraded on flight 126 from HKG -> DFW
Did not have status, and there were only 4 people on the upgrade list. 20 seats open in business class, and I was upgraded more than 24 hours before the flight. However, all the business seats were filled by the time of the flight.
Most likely due to HKG issues and not as many people flying.
Now I have AA Gold.
Did not have status, and there were only 4 people on the upgrade list. 20 seats open in business class, and I was upgraded more than 24 hours before the flight. However, all the business seats were filled by the time of the flight.
Most likely due to HKG issues and not as many people flying.
Now I have AA Gold.
Sep 24, 2019, 9:56 am
#863
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 10
Hello! My wife and I are flying on flight 169, LAX to NRT on O fare class, Oct 15th. I no longer have status with AA but was hoping to do a miles + copay award upgrade to business. Is the likelihood of this clearing close to zero? I don’t have enough AA miles, so if there’s no realistic chance I’d rather not deal with converting Marriott points. Thank you for any advice.
Oct. 15 is a Tuesday which plays greatly in your favor. I'd say your chances are good, but it's way too soon to be able to say for sure. All the normal paid business travel hasn't even begun to book yet.
You definitely have a "realistic chance," however I'm not sure I would transfer points yet. Even if you had the necessary miles, any upgrade space most likely won't appear till 24-48 hrs. before the flight.
You definitely have a "realistic chance," however I'm not sure I would transfer points yet. Even if you had the necessary miles, any upgrade space most likely won't appear till 24-48 hrs. before the flight.
Sep 24, 2019, 10:20 am
#864
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,502
Yuck, unfortunately LAX-NRT on 10/15 is down to J4 with the seatmap accurately reflecting only 4 seats left in business. Even with status those are not good odds still 3 weeks out, so I'd probably hold off on any miles transfers.
Sep 24, 2019, 4:01 pm
#865
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: LAX
Programs: AA EXP, SPG Gold
Posts: 181
MIA-LAX on AA 1061 at 9:30PM on 10/3 (Thursday) is currently J6 / D6 / I5 / C2. I know I could confirm miles + copay now, but not sure I value the upgrade that much so wanted to get an idea of my comp. upgrade chances as a PP with ~$14K rolling EQD. Anyone fly the later MIA-LAX departures regularly and have thoughts? Thanks in advance.
Sep 25, 2019, 5:00 am
#866
Join Date: Dec 2012
Programs: AAdvantage Executive Platinum (3 Million Miler), IHG Spire Royal Amdassador
Posts: 282
I'm 0 for 3 on recent SWUs as EXP (and unfortunately have one expiring at the end of January):
1. Mid July flight on a Wednesday, CLT>DUB. Showing J0, at least a week out. Did get confirmed to PE at 24 hour check in. #1 on upgrade list, around $20K rolling EQD . Didn't clear
2. Return DUB>PHL on a Monday in July. Showing J0 a month in advance so booked PE. 2nd on upgrade list and #1 cleared. PE looked W0/P0
3. Sunday, Sept 15 DFW>NRT. Switching from J4 to J2 to J0 back and forth the week before. JO the morning of the flight. I was 2nd on the list and #1 cleared. Probably at around $22K rolling EQD at this point
4. Heading home Saturday Sept 28, NRT>DFW, flt 176 Again, flight is switching from J4 to J0 to J2 to J0, etc. Not looking good for me. Ugh, I'm done
1. Mid July flight on a Wednesday, CLT>DUB. Showing J0, at least a week out. Did get confirmed to PE at 24 hour check in. #1 on upgrade list, around $20K rolling EQD . Didn't clear
2. Return DUB>PHL on a Monday in July. Showing J0 a month in advance so booked PE. 2nd on upgrade list and #1 cleared. PE looked W0/P0
3. Sunday, Sept 15 DFW>NRT. Switching from J4 to J2 to J0 back and forth the week before. JO the morning of the flight. I was 2nd on the list and #1 cleared. Probably at around $22K rolling EQD at this point
4. Heading home Saturday Sept 28, NRT>DFW, flt 176 Again, flight is switching from J4 to J0 to J2 to J0, etc. Not looking good for me. Ugh, I'm done
Last edited by VaBeachGirl; Sep 25, 2019 at 3:46 pm
Sep 25, 2019, 8:08 am
#867
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: DFW
Posts: 8,036
AA23 on 30-Sept, DIJC 0, 2 seats showing open in the seat map. Looking horrible with an SWU?
Sep 25, 2019, 8:24 am
#868
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,148
I'm 0 for 3 on recent SWUs as EXP (and unfortunately have one expiring at the end of January):
1. Mid July flight on a Wednesday, CLT>DUB. Showing J0, at least a week out. Did get confirmed to PE at 24 hour check in. First on upgrade list, around $20K rolling EQD . Didn't clear
2. Return DUB>PHL on a Monday in July. Showing J0 a month in advance so booked PE. Was 2nd on upgrade list and #1 cleared. PE looked W0/P0
3. Sunday, Sept 15 DFW>NRT. Switching from J4 to J2 to J0 back and forth the week before. JO the morning of the flight. I was 2nd on the list and #1 cleared. Probably at around $22K rolling EQD at this point
4. Heading home Saturday Sept 28, NRT>DFW, flt 176 Again, flight is switching from J4 to J0 to J2 to J0, etc. Not looking good for me. Ugh, I'm done
1. Mid July flight on a Wednesday, CLT>DUB. Showing J0, at least a week out. Did get confirmed to PE at 24 hour check in. First on upgrade list, around $20K rolling EQD . Didn't clear
2. Return DUB>PHL on a Monday in July. Showing J0 a month in advance so booked PE. Was 2nd on upgrade list and #1 cleared. PE looked W0/P0
3. Sunday, Sept 15 DFW>NRT. Switching from J4 to J2 to J0 back and forth the week before. JO the morning of the flight. I was 2nd on the list and #1 cleared. Probably at around $22K rolling EQD at this point
4. Heading home Saturday Sept 28, NRT>DFW, flt 176 Again, flight is switching from J4 to J0 to J2 to J0, etc. Not looking good for me. Ugh, I'm done
Sep 25, 2019, 8:31 am
#869
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,502
In any event, any flight that is J0 is not good for SWU odds for obvious reasons, unless this is a case where economy is oversold and AA is holding back J seats.
Sep 25, 2019, 8:45 am
#870
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: DFW
Posts: 8,036
plenty of space in economy
