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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old Jan 6, 2019, 6:09 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)


Elite status
  1. Concierge Key
  2. Executive Platinum
  3. Platinum Pro
  4. Platinum
  5. Gold

Upgrade type
  1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
  2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
  3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

Then, by
  1. Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
  2. Booking class
  3. Time of request

See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017




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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old Aug 27, 2019, 1:54 pm
  #796  
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 4
Hi there!

I'm flying DFW to MAD (AA 36) on Sep 1 and a friend of mine requested a SWU for the flight. Can somebody with an EF subscription please check for J/C availability? How are my chances as someone with no status?

I really appreciate it
Slamless is offline  
Old Aug 27, 2019, 2:43 pm
  #797  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,502
Originally Posted by Slamless
Hi there!

I'm flying DFW to MAD (AA 36) on Sep 1 and a friend of mine requested a SWU for the flight. Can somebody with an EF subscription please check for J/C availability? How are my chances as someone with no status?

I really appreciate it
Flight is J7 and wide open in business, no upgrade space though but that's not surprising. Given that you're flying on a Sunday night of a holiday weekend this is a slam dunk upgrade even without any status. In typical AA fashion though it probably won't clear till around 24-36 hrs before the flight, so I'd be watching your reservation hard starting Friday night and Saturday morning.
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Old Aug 27, 2019, 4:41 pm
  #798  
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 4
Originally Posted by JJeffrey
Flight is J7 and wide open in business, no upgrade space though but that's not surprising. Given that you're flying on a Sunday night of a holiday weekend this is a slam dunk upgrade even without any status. In typical AA fashion though it probably won't clear till around 24-36 hrs before the flight, so I'd be watching your reservation hard starting Friday night and Saturday morning.
Great to hear I have a decent shot. Thank you so much!
Slamless is offline  
Old Aug 27, 2019, 11:22 pm
  #799  
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Denver, CO
Programs: AA EXP, IHG Spire Elite
Posts: 72
Originally Posted by Slamless
Hi there!

I'm flying DFW to MAD (AA 36) on Sep 1 and a friend of mine requested a SWU for the flight. Can somebody with an EF subscription please check for J/C availability? How are my chances as someone with no status?

I really appreciate it
I just took this flight in July and got an upgrade with miles pretty easily, and that was on a Thursday.

To add to the other person's response on ExpertFlyer, seat map shows 19 open business seats. Nothing as upgrades yet, but with that many open, it should happen.

I never knew people could give away SWUs to friends/family not on their ticket. I've only done that when my wife was on the same booked flights/itinerary.

I also don't know how you will be prioritized. My gut says AA will bump status requests and mileage + copay first.

Another problem you'll have is not having an EF account for alerts. If there is anyone on that same flight also waiting for availability, and they have an alert set up, they will swoop in and take it before you even knew it was open. When I get those emails, I'm immediately on the phone with the EXP desk asking to punch through the upgrade, and they always do. So you're up against that challenge, which will result in you being on the wait list at the gate hoping for a last-minute bump.

BUT, given there are 19 seats open, I'd say the chances of getting the SWU upgrade, status or not, is quite high. Good luck and let us know!
acoburn73 is offline  
Old Aug 28, 2019, 12:21 am
  #800  
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: PHL (kinda, no airport is really close)
Programs: AA Exp, but not sure for how long. Enterprise Platinum woo-hoo!
Posts: 4,551
I know this thread is mostly about SWU's, but I had a surprise today in a different context.

I SDC'ed from a SEA-PHL redeye to a noon flight. The seat map shows 4 open F seats (out of 20 on the A321) but none for sale. When the upgrade list populated at T-4 hours, I was third. I figured, no way - if there were no F seats for sale, these seats were probably spoken for. I PPro with probably a relatively high EQD for being PPro (probably 15-18K).

There were a total of 5 names on the upgrade ilst, and I at #3 and someone else at #5 got upgraded.

I don't know if 1, 2 and 4 didn't show up, or what. I didn't complain.
redtop43 is offline  
Old Aug 28, 2019, 12:36 am
  #801  
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Denver, CO
Programs: AA EXP, IHG Spire Elite
Posts: 72
Originally Posted by redtop43
I know this thread is mostly about SWU's, but I had a surprise today in a different context.

I SDC'ed from a SEA-PHL redeye to a noon flight. The seat map shows 4 open F seats (out of 20 on the A321) but none for sale. When the upgrade list populated at T-4 hours, I was third. I figured, no way - if there were no F seats for sale, these seats were probably spoken for. I PPro with probably a relatively high EQD for being PPro (probably 15-18K).

There were a total of 5 names on the upgrade ilst, and I at #3 and someone else at #5 got upgraded.

I don't know if 1, 2 and 4 didn't show up, or what. I didn't complain.
This happened to me, but I was at the gate and was #2 on a long haul from PHL-MUC in June for a business upgrade from main cabin extra, on a plane that had PE seats (as many of us know, AA doesn't put PE pax ahead of E pax for upgrade priorities, nor does it use the "next cabin of service" like BA does for upgrades), and the top three were completely skipped for the last 3 biz seats at boarding.

The upgrade list on the board showed upgrade confirmation check marks by pax #4 , 5, and 7, but #1 , 2, 3 (and 6) pax on the list were passed up. I asked the gate agent why we were skipped for the last 3 upgrades, and she started loudly (nearly yelling) stating that since I wasn't in PE, I don't get the upgrade. #3 , 4, and 7 were PE, so they get the bump - can't jump cabins, she said (wrongly).

The agent was (erroneously) using the BA "next cabin of service" requirement for this flight, even though AA doesn't do this, yet (this was an AA ticket on AA metal). I tried to explain this to her, and she wasn't having it. Asked her manager, and she just supported her gate agent. Called EXP desk right there, and the EXP rep offered to speak to the gate agent, but again - she was having nothing of it. In fact it looked like they were trying to determine if my debating was enough to get me thrown off the flight entirely (I was perfectly calm). So I just tucked my tail and walked away, giving these two agents the satisfaction of power, even though they were completely wrong. I did get their names and filed a complaint, and AA later gave me 10,000 miles as an apology, while confirming that these agents were definitely not processing upgrades correctly.

My point here is - maybe you got picked because you had another gate agent that incorrectly applied the upgrade prioritization method. Were you in MCE (or PE if this flight had it), while the others were in economy? There seems to be a few gate agents that have no clue that AA isn't doing "next cabin of service" prioritization or even requirements.
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Old Aug 28, 2019, 9:58 pm
  #802  
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: PHL (kinda, no airport is really close)
Programs: AA Exp, but not sure for how long. Enterprise Platinum woo-hoo!
Posts: 4,551
Mine was just a "normal" two-cabin domestic flight. I'm aware that when there are 3 cabins, there can in effect be two separate upgrade lists, which on the monitor or app are combined into one.
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Old Aug 29, 2019, 2:04 pm
  #803  
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Central Mass
Programs: Independent
Posts: 4,829
How hard is it to get upgrades on the Sunday afternoon flight between DFW and JFK? I know you can't give me exact predictions, but as a EXP, do I stand a chance or is this flight usually heavy with EXPs?
Cloudship is offline  
Old Aug 29, 2019, 7:42 pm
  #804  
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 4
Originally Posted by Slamless
Hi there!

I'm flying DFW to MAD (AA 36) on Sep 1 and a friend of mine requested a SWU for the flight. Can somebody with an EF subscription please check for J/C availability? How are my chances as someone with no status?

I really appreciate it
Finally just bought an EF subscription after like 10 free trials haha. My flight is now saying J2 and I still haven't been upgraded so that's kind of a bummer. However, the seat map still looks pretty wide open. Does that happen often?

Thanks again!
Slamless is offline  
Old Aug 29, 2019, 8:09 pm
  #805  
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Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,502
Originally Posted by Slamless
Finally just bought an EF subscription after like 10 free trials haha. My flight is now saying J2 and I still haven't been upgraded so that's kind of a bummer. However, the seat map still looks pretty wide open. Does that happen often?

Thanks again!
The flight is also down to Y0W0 so if anything I'd bet that coach and/or PE is now oversold and AA has just removed J inventory to cover for some of the oversell (they do this semi frequently in this type of scenario where there will be little to no paid business travel). The business seatmap is still only half full as you mentioned. That's great news for anyone on the upgrade waitlist, but it probably means you won't see it clear till even later, most likely the day of the flight.

I'd say its Dorian related as people shuffle plans, especially anyone planning to fly through MIA on Sat or Sun is now scrambling.
JJeffrey is online now  
Old Aug 31, 2019, 4:49 am
  #806  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA EXP; Marriott BonVoy Titanium Elite, Marriott LT Plat.
Posts: 1,717
Originally Posted by acoburn73
This happened to me, but I was at the gate and was #2 on a long haul from PHL-MUC in June for a business upgrade from main cabin extra, on a plane that had PE seats (as many of us know, AA doesn't put PE pax ahead of E pax for upgrade priorities, nor does it use the "next cabin of service" like BA does for upgrades), and the top three were completely skipped for the last 3 biz seats at boarding.

The upgrade list on the board showed upgrade confirmation check marks by pax #4 , 5, and 7, but #1 , 2, 3 (and 6) pax on the list were passed up. I asked the gate agent why we were skipped for the last 3 upgrades, and she started loudly (nearly yelling) stating that since I wasn't in PE, I don't get the upgrade. #3 , 4, and 7 were PE, so they get the bump - can't jump cabins, she said (wrongly).

The agent was (erroneously) using the BA "next cabin of service" requirement for this flight, even though AA doesn't do this, yet (this was an AA ticket on AA metal). I tried to explain this to her, and she wasn't having it. Asked her manager, and she just supported her gate agent. Called EXP desk right there, and the EXP rep offered to speak to the gate agent, but again - she was having nothing of it. In fact it looked like they were trying to determine if my debating was enough to get me thrown off the flight entirely (I was perfectly calm). So I just tucked my tail and walked away, giving these two agents the satisfaction of power, even though they were completely wrong. I did get their names and filed a complaint, and AA later gave me 10,000 miles as an apology, while confirming that these agents were definitely not processing upgrades correctly.

My point here is - maybe you got picked because you had another gate agent that incorrectly applied the upgrade prioritization method. Were you in MCE (or PE if this flight had it), while the others were in economy? There seems to be a few gate agents that have no clue that AA isn't doing "next cabin of service" prioritization or even requirements.
Is this like a PHL thing or what? I think I've read several posts that the GA at PHL use this "next of cabin upgrade, no jumping cabins" mentality. Chances of me going intl from PHL are slim to none at the moment, but still, how is that "they" keep getting away with this? Is there no follow-up or "beat down" from AA with these "rogue" GA?
Zacnlinc is offline  
Old Aug 31, 2019, 1:45 pm
  #807  
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 255
Originally Posted by Zacnlinc
Is this like a PHL thing or what? I think I've read several posts that the GA at PHL use this "next of cabin upgrade, no jumping cabins" mentality. Chances of me going intl from PHL are slim to none at the moment, but still, how is that "they" keep getting away with this? Is there no follow-up or "beat down" from AA with these "rogue" GA?
I think the “beat down” option would require people to actively complain to AA when stuff like this happens. Most do not. So it would be difficult for AA to ascertain that this is a recurring issue at PHL.
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rumboj is offline  
Old Aug 31, 2019, 1:49 pm
  #808  
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 214
Originally Posted by Cloudship
How hard is it to get upgrades on the Sunday afternoon flight between DFW and JFK? I know you can't give me exact predictions, but as a EXP, do I stand a chance or is this flight usually heavy with EXPs?
DFW-NYC is always a hard upgrade. Lots of CKs and EXPs combined with lots of purchased business from both O&D and connecting flights
Finsup72 is offline  
Old Aug 31, 2019, 3:24 pm
  #809  
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Central Mass
Programs: Independent
Posts: 4,829
Originally Posted by Finsup72
DFW-NYC is always a hard upgrade. Lots of CKs and EXPs combined with lots of purchased business from both O&D and connecting flights
Thanks! That is the type of info that ids great to know - where are there lot os CK's and EXP's. I suppose that does kind of make sense that DFW would be full of them.
Cloudship is offline  
Old Aug 31, 2019, 7:58 pm
  #810  
 
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: CLT
Posts: 2
CLT-MAD Upgraded but not charged?

The beginning of October I am flying to CLT-MAD, bought the tickets in March and requested a miles+dollars upgrade a few days after. This evening was reviewing my flights since I have a few trips happening next month, and saw I no longer had a seat assigned for CLT-MAD flight. Took a closer look and the flight now shows business class, but my credit card hasn’t been charged or miles deducted from account so not sure what happened. The app and web site still show upgrade “requested” and not confirmed.

Only Platinum, did I somehow get lucky with the upgrade gods, or will the charge/miles go through when I check in for the flight?
cocallaw is offline  


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