Jan 6, 2019, 6:09 pm
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes."New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017
(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
Elite status
- Concierge Key
- Executive Platinum
- Platinum Pro
- Platinum
- Gold
Upgrade type
- Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
- 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
- 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)
Then, by
- Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
- Booking class
- Time of request
See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017
Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017
ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)
Sep 1, 2019, 9:49 am
#811
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: home = LAX
Posts: 25,934
Especially on international flights, many people who book through foreign carriers or through consolidator travel agents may not be able to easily select their seats, so they don't select their seats, and their seats may stay unselected until close to flight time. So, yes, it is common enough to see the seat map pretty wide open despite the cabin being close to sold out. The seat map only shows those seats that have been selected, it is incapable of showing how mean seats are taken but not yet selected.
Sep 1, 2019, 10:51 am
#812
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Wesley Chapel, FL
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 30,043
cleared on a saver Y dfw-atl and back Friday/Saturday.
I booked the ticket Wednesday and the upgrade instantly for the return leg Saturday and I was number 1 for 1 seat Friday out.
I booked the ticket Wednesday and the upgrade instantly for the return leg Saturday and I was number 1 for 1 seat Friday out.
Sep 1, 2019, 11:15 am
#813
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,500
The beginning of October I am flying to CLT-MAD, bought the tickets in March and requested a miles+dollars upgrade a few days after. This evening was reviewing my flights since I have a few trips happening next month, and saw I no longer had a seat assigned for CLT-MAD flight. Took a closer look and the flight now shows business class, but my credit card hasn’t been charged or miles deducted from account so not sure what happened. The app and web site still show upgrade “requested” and not confirmed.
Only Platinum, did I somehow get lucky with the upgrade gods, or will the charge/miles go through when I check in for the flight?
Only Platinum, did I somehow get lucky with the upgrade gods, or will the charge/miles go through when I check in for the flight?
Sep 1, 2019, 11:28 pm
#814
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 4
I was 6 out of 7 on the wait list. 1, 2, 4, 5, and 7 all cleared. Bummer! Thank you everyone who replied and helped me out.
Sep 2, 2019, 12:20 am
#815
Join Date: Jun 2007
Programs: AA Lifetime Gold, AA Exec Plat
Posts: 715
Had a peculiar situation happen today, and was wonder if anyone knows how this works. Originally booked on JFK-LAX at 8:45. Had J1, and an earlier 6:30 flight had J1 as well. 24 hrs before flight, I same day flight change to the 6:30 and got an instant upgrade (i'm a explat). I thought when there it 1 seat left it goes to the list.
Sep 2, 2019, 9:46 am
#816
Join Date: May 2006
Location: STL
Programs: AA PLT
Posts: 6
AA vs. EF
Booked on AA 73 tomorrow. Today EF shows C7, but AA says inventory does not exist. I've called twice and also sent DM to @AmericanAir with no luck clearing the upgrade. Anyone else experienced this?
Sep 2, 2019, 9:52 am
#817
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,500
Booked on AA 73 tomorrow. Today EF shows C7, but AA says inventory does not exist. I've called twice and also sent DM to @AmericanAir with no luck clearing the upgrade. Anyone else experienced this?
Sep 2, 2019, 9:54 am
#818
Join Date: May 2006
Location: STL
Programs: AA PLT
Posts: 6
Thanks. I was searching the full itinerary and now see C0 when searching only AA 73.
Sep 2, 2019, 12:14 pm
#819
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Southern California
Programs: AA EXPlat, 2.4MM; HHonors Diamond
Posts: 580
Question: I am EXPLAT, booked coach JFK-LAX 09/07 #341 (3-cabin 321). I just received an Expert Flyer notification that a C upgrade is available. Does that mean anything to me at this point, 5 days away from the flight?
Sep 2, 2019, 2:24 pm
#820
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 532
If I book a discount PE seat from DFW-OGG, and I request to upgrade with stickers, I understand the priority of upgrades (I’m guessing time of request if
never a factor since how often will two members have the same exact rolling dollar spending).
I was also considering requesting a 15,000 mile $175 copay upgrade. The miles upgrades have priority over stickers. When do miles upgrades start opening up and clearing compared to stickers?
Is there anyway to assess my sticker upgrade chances as a platinum as flight time gets closer and then request a miles upgrade if jt doesn’t look like I will get a stickers upgrade? Does anyone know the data on miles and stickers upgrades success rates on dfw-ogg? I am guessing that any lie flat routes that can be upgraded with stickers or less miles/dollars than say a Europe biz class upgrade, will be difficult to get.
never a factor since how often will two members have the same exact rolling dollar spending).
I was also considering requesting a 15,000 mile $175 copay upgrade. The miles upgrades have priority over stickers. When do miles upgrades start opening up and clearing compared to stickers?
Is there anyway to assess my sticker upgrade chances as a platinum as flight time gets closer and then request a miles upgrade if jt doesn’t look like I will get a stickers upgrade? Does anyone know the data on miles and stickers upgrades success rates on dfw-ogg? I am guessing that any lie flat routes that can be upgraded with stickers or less miles/dollars than say a Europe biz class upgrade, will be difficult to get.
Last edited by EQDsSUCK; Sep 2, 2019 at 5:10 pm
Sep 3, 2019, 5:09 am
#821
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,500
Question: I am EXPLAT, booked coach JFK-LAX 09/07 #341 (3-cabin 321). I just received an Expert Flyer notification that a C upgrade is available. Does that mean anything to me at this point, 5 days away from the flight?
Assuming you're just waitlisted for your 100 hr sticker upgrade, then there's 2 ways to look at it. On one hand AA releasing C space is good, as mentioned above this means there's still seats in business that AA doesn't think it will sell. On the other hand if there's any elites waitlisted for SWUs or miles/copays then they will start to clear, thus reducing J inventory for any potential sticker upgrades.
Sep 3, 2019, 5:22 am
#822
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,500
I was also considering requesting a 15,000 mile $175 copay upgrade. The miles upgrades have priority over stickers. When do miles upgrades start opening up and clearing compared to stickers?
Is there anyway to assess my sticker upgrade chances as a platinum as flight time gets closer and then request a miles upgrade if jt doesn’t look like I will get a stickers upgrade? Does anyone know the data on miles and stickers upgrades success rates on dfw-ogg? I am guessing that any lie flat routes that can be upgraded with stickers or less miles/dollars than say a Europe biz class upgrade, will be difficult to get.
Is there anyway to assess my sticker upgrade chances as a platinum as flight time gets closer and then request a miles upgrade if jt doesn’t look like I will get a stickers upgrade? Does anyone know the data on miles and stickers upgrades success rates on dfw-ogg? I am guessing that any lie flat routes that can be upgraded with stickers or less miles/dollars than say a Europe biz class upgrade, will be difficult to get.
As to upgrade chances, similar to pretty much every other AA long haul route this is completely dependent on the day of the week and time of year. Flying midweek will improve your odds tremendously.
And you can monitor the exact inventory on ExpertFlyer, or at aa.com by doing dummy bookings and checking the seatmaps to get a general idea. If your flight starts to fill up you can always call AA to get added to the miles/copay waitlist.
Sep 3, 2019, 11:04 am
#823
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Southern California
Programs: AA EXPlat, 2.4MM; HHonors Diamond
Posts: 580
Unless you are waitlisted for a SWU or miles/copay then C space doesn't really mean much. Pretty much standard operating procedure for AA to release C space in the week before a flight if there's still seats in business that they don't think will sell.
Assuming you're just waitlisted for your 100 hr sticker upgrade, then there's 2 ways to look at it. On one hand AA releasing C space is good, as mentioned above this means there's still seats in business that AA doesn't think it will sell. On the other hand if there's any elites waitlisted for SWUs or miles/copays then they will start to clear, thus reducing J inventory for any potential sticker upgrades.
Assuming you're just waitlisted for your 100 hr sticker upgrade, then there's 2 ways to look at it. On one hand AA releasing C space is good, as mentioned above this means there's still seats in business that AA doesn't think it will sell. On the other hand if there's any elites waitlisted for SWUs or miles/copays then they will start to clear, thus reducing J inventory for any potential sticker upgrades.
Sep 3, 2019, 12:37 pm
#824
Join Date: Nov 2017
Programs: AA PPRO; Marriott Rewards
Posts: 9
I sincerely apologize in advance if this has been answered in the prior 55 pages. . . . .I fly SGF - LHR multiple times a year (connect through DFW, ORD or CLT). I'm an EPlat and have 4 SWU right now. I last flew in May, and got the upgrade but don't think they ever deducted the SWUs (please don't tell).
I'm looking at a trip in early October. I've signed up for an EF seat alert. The way I see it, there are no C seats available right now. Any way to predict whether/when seats will be released? I need to go ahead and book, but don't necessarily want to play upgrade roulette if possible. Should I just keep monitoring EF for openings, or do they even show up? Am I wasting my time?
Thanks in advance!
I'm looking at a trip in early October. I've signed up for an EF seat alert. The way I see it, there are no C seats available right now. Any way to predict whether/when seats will be released? I need to go ahead and book, but don't necessarily want to play upgrade roulette if possible. Should I just keep monitoring EF for openings, or do they even show up? Am I wasting my time?
Thanks in advance!
Sep 3, 2019, 11:50 pm
#825
Join Date: Jan 2012
Programs: AY+ Plat, Marriott Plat, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 2,846
I sincerely apologize in advance if this has been answered in the prior 55 pages. . . . .I fly SGF - LHR multiple times a year (connect through DFW, ORD or CLT). I'm an EPlat and have 4 SWU right now. I last flew in May, and got the upgrade but don't think they ever deducted the SWUs (please don't tell).
I'm looking at a trip in early October. I've signed up for an EF seat alert. The way I see it, there are no C seats available right now. Any way to predict whether/when seats will be released? I need to go ahead and book, but don't necessarily want to play upgrade roulette if possible. Should I just keep monitoring EF for openings, or do they even show up? Am I wasting my time?
Thanks in advance!
I'm looking at a trip in early October. I've signed up for an EF seat alert. The way I see it, there are no C seats available right now. Any way to predict whether/when seats will be released? I need to go ahead and book, but don't necessarily want to play upgrade roulette if possible. Should I just keep monitoring EF for openings, or do they even show up? Am I wasting my time?
Thanks in advance!