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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old Jan 6, 2019, 6:09 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)


Elite status
  1. Concierge Key
  2. Executive Platinum
  3. Platinum Pro
  4. Platinum
  5. Gold

Upgrade type
  1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
  2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
  3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

Then, by
  1. Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
  2. Booking class
  3. Time of request

See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017




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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old Aug 15, 2019, 2:24 am
  #766  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Programs: AY+ Plat, Marriott Plat, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 2,846
Originally Posted by Zeromus-X
Currently AA Gold, I normally fly SFO or OAK to PHX, but decided to go STS > LAX > PHX on my last trip (8/13) since each leg is < 500 miles and I'm trying to get those last segments to Platinum this year. Got upgraded on both the STS > LAX and LAX > PHX legs at T-24.
I didn't realize AA had added flights between STS and LAX, but it's been operating for several months now! ^
flyingeph12 is offline  
Old Aug 15, 2019, 2:46 pm
  #767  
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: St Pete Beach, FL
Programs: AA Exec Plat
Posts: 45
Any recommendations on the best international route for using a SWU in January/February? Id prefer someplace warm, if possible. Just looking to get the most value out of them. TIA

Located in DC, but can reposition anywhere.
beershack is offline  
Old Aug 15, 2019, 3:01 pm
  #768  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,498
Originally Posted by beershack
Any recommendations on the best international route for using a SWU in January/February? Id prefer someplace warm, if possible. Just looking to get the most value out of them. TIA

Located in DC, but can reposition anywhere.
With the exception of maybe SYD and AKL, Jan/Feb is generally a gold mine for SWU space on most long haul routes. If you can fly midweek (especially Tues/Wed) then your chances are good. Unfortunately though most of the good value routes (Asia and Europe) are not very warm at that time of year, but you could always do SE Asia and connect through Tokyo or HKG, etc. And there's always South America.
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JJeffrey is online now  
Old Aug 15, 2019, 4:56 pm
  #769  
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: LA / NYC
Programs: Amex Platinum, SPG Gold, HHonors Gold, AA Platinum Pro, Hertz Gold, National Exec
Posts: 87
Wahoo! AA Platinum - just cleared for miles+copay upgrade to biz on a redeye LAX to JFK for tonight at T-9. When I bought the ticket 2 weeks ago, I was excited to see a J7 and a lot of open seats. Then of course, these past few days, it's filled up. Still don't have a seat yet though but got email confirmation that my upgrade cleared.
mad07 is offline  
Old Aug 16, 2019, 10:28 am
  #770  
Hilton Contributor BadgeIHG Contributor Badge
 
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: DFW
Posts: 675
I'm currently AA Gold and just cleared 24 hours before departure on DFW-PDX using certificates. I didn't think I was going to get upgraded with the number of MCE seats already taken, but I got lucky.
vh_bu98 is offline  
Old Aug 19, 2019, 11:30 am
  #771  
 
Join Date: Jul 2019
Posts: 4
How big can an upgrade list get? Currently 24 seats open and 10 days out.
takeaseat is offline  
Old Aug 19, 2019, 11:39 am
  #772  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,498
Originally Posted by takeaseat
How big can an upgrade list get? Currently 24 seats open and 10 days out.
Other than GA's making stuff up there's no arbitrary limit to the amount of pax that can be on any given upgrade list. With 24 seats open I assume you're talking about a long haul and/or widebody route, in which case it's completely normal to see a wide open business cabin but AA still not releasing any space at 10 days out. Just give it time, the space will open up around 24-36 hrs before.

Another thread on long upgrade lists: What is the Longest Upgrade List Ever????
JJeffrey is online now  
Old Aug 19, 2019, 12:07 pm
  #773  
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Denver, CO
Programs: AA EXP, IHG Spire Elite
Posts: 72
Had a rare upgrade last Friday night.

EXP on AA this year (just made it again on this trip) replying from Israel on work trip. Corporate travel booking (AMEX Global) booked this trip and somehow managed to run the AA metal portions through BA ticketing, which means requesting upgrades were not possible since the entire 3-segment front-end journey were on BA tix (DEN-ORD-LHR-TLV).

Sitting in ORD Flagship Lounge Friday evening talking to wife and got phone notification that my PE seat 14D had been changed to 3D on the AA metal, BA paper ORD-LHR leg. Told wife to get lost (ha!) and went to desk to find out PE had been overbooked, so they gave out 3 comp upgrades to business.

Probably the best and definitely most surprising long haul upgrade I've gotten (only free one aside from SWU)!
acoburn73 is offline  
Old Aug 19, 2019, 12:19 pm
  #774  
JTK
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: New York
Programs: AAdvantage EP
Posts: 368
Originally Posted by JTK
I know DFW to HKG is a hard upgrade, but I am flying on 8/20. Expertflyer shows 7 in all business classes. Looking on the seat map (yes it is not accurate) is shows 15 out of 52 seats occupied. I guess I will check at t-36 to see if that is AA algorithm.
As an update, my upgrade cleared about 24 hours before the flight. Up until then is was still showing all 7 in business class and only 15 seats were occupied until the upgrades cleared. Still showing C7 and 23 empty seats in J. You would think that there would be a algorithm that would have released C before this. I know DFW/HKG is typically full but not this time.
JTK is offline  
Old Aug 19, 2019, 12:25 pm
  #775  
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Denver, CO
Programs: AA EXP, IHG Spire Elite
Posts: 72
Originally Posted by JTK
As an update, my upgrade cleared about 24 hours before the flight. Up until then is was still showing all 7 in business class and only 15 seats were occupied until the upgrades cleared. Still showing C7 and 23 empty seats in J. You would think that there would be a algorithm that would have released C before this. I know DFW/HKG is typically full but not this time.
Easy explanation. Protests in HKG.

I have seen as many as 50 upgrades on list for domestic AA flights. Even as an EXP I've been as low as #20 on those kinds of lists (usually not top, but 3-10 at worst). Rarely do I see many on international long haul upgrade lists - sometimes none - even when ExpertFlyer says it's wide open and there are upgrades available.
acoburn73 is offline  
Old Aug 19, 2019, 12:54 pm
  #776  
JTK
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: New York
Programs: AAdvantage EP
Posts: 368
Originally Posted by acoburn73
Easy explanation. Protests in HKG.

I have seen as many as 50 upgrades on list for domestic AA flights. Even as an EXP I've been as low as #20 on those kinds of lists (usually not top, but 3-10 at worst). Rarely do I see many on international long haul upgrade lists - sometimes none - even when ExpertFlyer says it's wide open and there are upgrades available.
I agree that the protests plus the fact it is a Tuesday had a lot to do with the empty cabin. I thought the upgrades would come through earlier because of the empty cabin. I have been on this flight with as many as 50 people on the upgrade list. Of course the bright side is I cleared soon enough to get the seat I wanted plus per order the dinner selection.
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JTK is offline  
Old Aug 19, 2019, 1:21 pm
  #777  
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 12
Hello Fellow FT Members,

Currently at Platinum Pro status and seems like I can never get an upgrade out of my home airport (PHX). I connect in ORD and DFW often. While I know Hub-to-Hub Upgrades are tough to come by, I'm curious if it even makes sense for me to push it for EXP this year. As Platinum Pro I am still often 15 or 16 on the upgrade lists out of PHX. As EXP, I am not sure if it would even make a difference. Is it still extremely hard to get upgraded Hub to Hub as an EXP?
Raymond Lattanzio is offline  
Old Aug 19, 2019, 1:30 pm
  #778  
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Denver, CO
Programs: AA EXP, IHG Spire Elite
Posts: 72
Originally Posted by Raymond Lattanzio
Hello Fellow FT Members,

Currently at Platinum Pro status and seems like I can never get an upgrade out of my home airport (PHX). I connect in ORD and DFW often. While I know Hub-to-Hub Upgrades are tough to come by, I'm curious if it even makes sense for me to push it for EXP this year. As Platinum Pro I am still often 15 or 16 on the upgrade lists out of PHX. As EXP, I am not sure if it would even make a difference. Is it still extremely hard to get upgraded Hub to Hub as an EXP?
With the new 15,000 EQD requirement instead of 12,000 for EXP, I'd give it a shot. I'm EXP now and am just a couple thousand EQDs (over 100,000 EQMs) away from renewal, and have been no higher than 2 on the upgrade list for domestic flights all year (DEN-ORD or DEN-DFW). Usually I'm in the 3-10 range and sometimes as far down as 20 on a huge 50+ person request list. But I think there are a lot of EXPs from last year that made it on the previous 12,000 EQD requirement, and there'll be fewer this year, so I'm hoping to be top 3 every flight domestic next year.

As a note, last year I hit the 12,000 EQD before I made 100,000 EQM (ended with 112,000 EQM and roughly 18,000 EQD). This year I've hit 113,000 EQM and still have 2500 EQDs to go to make EXP, and by the end of the year, even with 177,000 projected EQMs, I'll only be just slightly above the new 15,000 EQD requirement.

So in a nutshell, I'd say go for EXP as you never know how the lists will look with the new 15,000 EQD requirement. There could be quite a few that miss due to EQDs.
acoburn73 is offline  
Old Aug 19, 2019, 6:50 pm
  #779  
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Thousand Oaks, Ca., USA
Programs: AA Lifetime Plat; Bonvoy Titanium Lifetime Elite;Hyatt Globalist; HHonors Diamond; United Silver
Posts: 8,318
Originally Posted by acoburn73
With the new 15,000 EQD requirement instead of 12,000 for EXP, I'd give it a shot. I'm EXP now and am just a couple thousand EQDs (over 100,000 EQMs) away from renewal, and have been no higher than 2 on the upgrade list for domestic flights all year (DEN-ORD or DEN-DFW). Usually I'm in the 3-10 range and sometimes as far down as 20 on a huge 50+ person request list. But I think there are a lot of EXPs from last year that made it on the previous 12,000 EQD requirement, and there'll be fewer this year, so I'm hoping to be top 3 every flight domestic next year.

As a note, last year I hit the 12,000 EQD before I made 100,000 EQM (ended with 112,000 EQM and roughly 18,000 EQD). This year I've hit 113,000 EQM and still have 2500 EQDs to go to make EXP, and by the end of the year, even with 177,000 projected EQMs, I'll only be just slightly above the new 15,000 EQD requirement.

So in a nutshell, I'd say go for EXP as you never know how the lists will look with the new 15,000 EQD requirement. There could be quite a few that miss due to EQDs.
Not quite understanding how the new EQD requirements will help you. The folks weeded out would be below you on the list if you have EQD of 15k (if everyones miles were uniformly spread through the year).
beachfan is offline  
Old Aug 19, 2019, 7:13 pm
  #780  
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: LAX
Programs: AA EXP, SPG Gold
Posts: 181
Originally Posted by beachfan
Not quite understanding how the new EQD requirements will help you. The folks weeded out would be below you on the list if you have EQD of 15k (if everyones miles were uniformly spread through the year).
The change wouldn't help a current $15K EXP, but a $15K EXP still beats a $20K Plat Pro. Assuming the original poster will be over $15K as a Plat Pro he'd still be better off stretching to EXP (obviously depending on how much effort that requires). You're right that someone who's currently a $15K EXP shouldn't see a difference in list position (assuming the EXP population stays the same, no lumps in EQD, etc.)
jcain is offline  


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