Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes."New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017
(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
Elite status
- Concierge Key
- Executive Platinum
- Platinum Pro
- Platinum
- Gold
Upgrade type
- Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
- 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
- 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)
Then, by
- Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
- Booking class
- Time of request
See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017
Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017
ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)
#106
Join Date: Jan 2019
Programs: AA Plat, Bonvoy Lifetime Plat, AC 25k, HHonors Gold, Amex Plat
Posts: 19
#107
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA EXP; Marriott BonVoy Titanium Elite, Marriott LT Plat.
Posts: 1,717
I was always just wondering at times, why the upgrade list is so short at times. Have always chalked it up -to people hoping for an op-up situation before giving up miles=copay (more value to some) than a SWU.
#108
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: LAX
Programs: UA Silver, AA, WN, DL
Posts: 4,091
Wanted to get seasoned AA flyers' perspective:
Got the try Gold trial and have 10 x 500 milers
Looking to fly JFK-LAX mid-week (Tue afternoon) and Basic Economy is $30 less. BE fare only $119; regular economy is $149
Need 2 tickets
Any realistic chance if I pay an extra $60 that these will clear? Given how elite heavy (and bottom rung my elite status is), I'm presuming no. But then again, I don't know if Tuesday afternoon flights (end of March) are filled with elites or not.
Alternatively, AS has regular economy for $119 and similar time, which I would probably take otherwise.
Got the try Gold trial and have 10 x 500 milers
Looking to fly JFK-LAX mid-week (Tue afternoon) and Basic Economy is $30 less. BE fare only $119; regular economy is $149
Need 2 tickets
Any realistic chance if I pay an extra $60 that these will clear? Given how elite heavy (and bottom rung my elite status is), I'm presuming no. But then again, I don't know if Tuesday afternoon flights (end of March) are filled with elites or not.
Alternatively, AS has regular economy for $119 and similar time, which I would probably take otherwise.
#109
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum/MM, DL Gold/MM, Hilton Diamond, Accor Platinum, Hertz Presidents Circle
Posts: 6,977
Wanted to get seasoned AA flyers' perspective:
Got the try Gold trial and have 10 x 500 milers
Looking to fly JFK-LAX mid-week (Tue afternoon) and Basic Economy is $30 less. BE fare only $119; regular economy is $149
Need 2 tickets
Any realistic chance if I pay an extra $60 that these will clear? Given how elite heavy (and bottom rung my elite status is), I'm presuming no. But then again, I don't know if Tuesday afternoon flights (end of March) are filled with elites or not.
Alternatively, AS has regular economy for $119 and similar time, which I would probably take otherwise.
Got the try Gold trial and have 10 x 500 milers
Looking to fly JFK-LAX mid-week (Tue afternoon) and Basic Economy is $30 less. BE fare only $119; regular economy is $149
Need 2 tickets
Any realistic chance if I pay an extra $60 that these will clear? Given how elite heavy (and bottom rung my elite status is), I'm presuming no. But then again, I don't know if Tuesday afternoon flights (end of March) are filled with elites or not.
Alternatively, AS has regular economy for $119 and similar time, which I would probably take otherwise.
#110
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: LAX
Programs: UA Silver, AA, WN, DL
Posts: 4,091
Probably not, but would need to know the specific flight to make a guess. For a flight that long I'd pay the extra $30 just to have the ability to pick my own seat and potentially be able to switch to an MCE seat at T-24. And Basic Economy gets you only half the EQMs of regular economy. Isn't your Gold challenge based on EQMs?
The invite to Gold challenge was nice but realistically, I won't be flying more than 4 flights a year that would be of any consequence (transcon or greater). Rest of my flights would be 1-2 hr hops. Figured if I can have decent chance using the 500 milers, may take a shot at it but don't plan on actually meeting the requirements.
The scheduled flight is on Tue 3/26, one of the afternoon flights. Revenue tickets are cheap; so presumption is that there isn't much demand. But for upgrades, I suppose that is an entirely different matter.
I remember back as an ExPlat/1K/Diamond NYC-LAX route was always a crapshoot trying to get instrument upgrades.
I'll accept the fact I'm better off buying a cheaper AS fare and still give me main cabin amenities than trying to use those 500 milers, and still be stuck in the back but payed 25% more.
#111
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: NYC
Posts: 27,238
The 1/22 flight only has 2 seats left for sale in business class, and 4 in Premium Economy. There seem to be a bunch of J reservations without seat assignments, which is sometimes indicative of a reservation that's held but not yet ticketed, and thus a higher chance of it being cancelled. That's probably the only thing that will get you to clear the waitlist, I'd be surprised if you were #1 or #2 as a Platinum. So net, my box says 14% chance of upgrade.
#112
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: NYC
Posts: 27,238
Often it means that many have cleared in advance. Contrary to popular belief, AA does often clear C upgrades in advance even when available J inventory is very low. My husband cleared SFO-JFK about a day before when the flight was J2. (And FWIW, ExpertFlyer never caught any C availability). His JFK-SFO flight was actually available for upgrade at booking, just over week in advance (it was C4 in fact), and it was a Friday late morning flight so not some crazy off-hour one.
#113
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: The KUL city
Programs: AA Lifetime Plat, TK Elite+
Posts: 2,663
Just to share my experience for LAX-LHR-LAX.
Both flights were wide open in J (I've been told it's less than 50% sold) before they cleared the upgrades. C opened up at T-35 hours (had to call in to request the upgrade to be confirmed) although I suspect that I will clear if I didn't call anyway, but better be safe than sorry.
Seems like they are really waiting until the very last few hours to clear the upgrades (understandable for a route that might get sell a lot of J tickets, but both my flights were about 60-70% full in J after all upgrades + employees have cleared and mid-week January TATL travel).
IIRC, my upgrades cleared around T-7 days last year.
Both flights were wide open in J (I've been told it's less than 50% sold) before they cleared the upgrades. C opened up at T-35 hours (had to call in to request the upgrade to be confirmed) although I suspect that I will clear if I didn't call anyway, but better be safe than sorry.
Seems like they are really waiting until the very last few hours to clear the upgrades (understandable for a route that might get sell a lot of J tickets, but both my flights were about 60-70% full in J after all upgrades + employees have cleared and mid-week January TATL travel).
IIRC, my upgrades cleared around T-7 days last year.
#114
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Gatwick, UK
Programs: UA *G, BA Silver
Posts: 1,673
Just to share my experience for LAX-LHR-LAX.
Both flights were wide open in J (I've been told it's less than 50% sold) before they cleared the upgrades. C opened up at T-35 hours (had to call in to request the upgrade to be confirmed) although I suspect that I will clear if I didn't call anyway, but better be safe than sorry..
Both flights were wide open in J (I've been told it's less than 50% sold) before they cleared the upgrades. C opened up at T-35 hours (had to call in to request the upgrade to be confirmed) although I suspect that I will clear if I didn't call anyway, but better be safe than sorry..
I use these flights all the time and sometimes my SWUs clear 3-4 weeks out (even at ticketing sometimes) and sometimes as late as T-36. It seems to bear little relation to the fullness of J on my flight, but a little more to the fullness of all the flights. Its surprising how many times 136 is almost empty in J and 108 is almost completely full.
#115
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 17
HNL-PHX Need help
Hello guys, I need some advice on this.
I am trying to fly from HNL to LAS.
There is this HNL-PHX-LAS flight from AA which has the first segments with A330, so first class has lie flats.
I am recently upgraded to a trial platinum pro, so I am not familiar with the upgrade possibility.
The date is 2/3/19 Sunday, and it is a red eye flight. I assume people would love those lie flats....
Currently there are even award space available... I can redeem 37500 BA avios on it,which sounds reasonable. (I have lots of avios)
The cash price for economy all the way to LAS is at $250. However I would only buy this if I know I am likely to be upgraded to first, since there is a direct Hawaiian flight to LAS for $299.
So right now I have 3 possible options:
1. Redeem 37500 Avios (I value them at $500) + $5 to fly confirm in first HNL-PHX, and use buddy pass for PHX- LAS ($30)
2. Purchase HNL-PHX-LAS in economy for $250, and wait for that upgrade to first.
3. Purchase HNL to LAS in economy on Hawaiian Airline for $299.
Obviously option 2 is the best if I can be upgraded, if not, then 3 would be better. I dont mind option 1, but I would hate to know if option 2 is viable.
Here are some questions:
1. As a platinum pro, what is my chance of getting upgrade on this flight?
2. It says "72-hour upgrade window" for PPro, what does that mean? Does that mean there is no way for me to know if I am upgraded until T-72?
3. Would everything change if I have a companion with no status, and link to my reservation?
4. Any way to check the upgrade list?
Thanks!
I am trying to fly from HNL to LAS.
There is this HNL-PHX-LAS flight from AA which has the first segments with A330, so first class has lie flats.
I am recently upgraded to a trial platinum pro, so I am not familiar with the upgrade possibility.
The date is 2/3/19 Sunday, and it is a red eye flight. I assume people would love those lie flats....
Currently there are even award space available... I can redeem 37500 BA avios on it,which sounds reasonable. (I have lots of avios)
The cash price for economy all the way to LAS is at $250. However I would only buy this if I know I am likely to be upgraded to first, since there is a direct Hawaiian flight to LAS for $299.
So right now I have 3 possible options:
1. Redeem 37500 Avios (I value them at $500) + $5 to fly confirm in first HNL-PHX, and use buddy pass for PHX- LAS ($30)
2. Purchase HNL-PHX-LAS in economy for $250, and wait for that upgrade to first.
3. Purchase HNL to LAS in economy on Hawaiian Airline for $299.
Obviously option 2 is the best if I can be upgraded, if not, then 3 would be better. I dont mind option 1, but I would hate to know if option 2 is viable.
Here are some questions:
1. As a platinum pro, what is my chance of getting upgrade on this flight?
2. It says "72-hour upgrade window" for PPro, what does that mean? Does that mean there is no way for me to know if I am upgraded until T-72?
3. Would everything change if I have a companion with no status, and link to my reservation?
4. Any way to check the upgrade list?
Thanks!
#116
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: STL/ORD/MCI/SAN
Programs: AA CK MM, AC SE100K, BA Gold, UA 1K, DL Plat, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 1,989
Hello guys, I need some advice on this.
I am trying to fly from HNL to LAS.
There is this HNL-PHX-LAS flight from AA which has the first segments with A330, so first class has lie flats.
I am recently upgraded to a trial platinum pro, so I am not familiar with the upgrade possibility.
The date is 2/3/19 Sunday, and it is a red eye flight. I assume people would love those lie flats....
Currently there are even award space available... I can redeem 37500 BA avios on it,which sounds reasonable. (I have lots of avios)
The cash price for economy all the way to LAS is at $250. However I would only buy this if I know I am likely to be upgraded to first, since there is a direct Hawaiian flight to LAS for $299.
So right now I have 3 possible options:
1. Redeem 37500 Avios (I value them at $500) + $5 to fly confirm in first HNL-PHX, and use buddy pass for PHX- LAS ($30)
2. Purchase HNL-PHX-LAS in economy for $250, and wait for that upgrade to first.
3. Purchase HNL to LAS in economy on Hawaiian Airline for $299.
Obviously option 2 is the best if I can be upgraded, if not, then 3 would be better. I dont mind option 1, but I would hate to know if option 2 is viable.
Here are some questions:
1. As a platinum pro, what is my chance of getting upgrade on this flight?
2. It says "72-hour upgrade window" for PPro, what does that mean? Does that mean there is no way for me to know if I am upgraded until T-72?
3. Would everything change if I have a companion with no status, and link to my reservation?
4. Any way to check the upgrade list?
Thanks!
I am trying to fly from HNL to LAS.
There is this HNL-PHX-LAS flight from AA which has the first segments with A330, so first class has lie flats.
I am recently upgraded to a trial platinum pro, so I am not familiar with the upgrade possibility.
The date is 2/3/19 Sunday, and it is a red eye flight. I assume people would love those lie flats....
Currently there are even award space available... I can redeem 37500 BA avios on it,which sounds reasonable. (I have lots of avios)
The cash price for economy all the way to LAS is at $250. However I would only buy this if I know I am likely to be upgraded to first, since there is a direct Hawaiian flight to LAS for $299.
So right now I have 3 possible options:
1. Redeem 37500 Avios (I value them at $500) + $5 to fly confirm in first HNL-PHX, and use buddy pass for PHX- LAS ($30)
2. Purchase HNL-PHX-LAS in economy for $250, and wait for that upgrade to first.
3. Purchase HNL to LAS in economy on Hawaiian Airline for $299.
Obviously option 2 is the best if I can be upgraded, if not, then 3 would be better. I dont mind option 1, but I would hate to know if option 2 is viable.
Here are some questions:
1. As a platinum pro, what is my chance of getting upgrade on this flight?
2. It says "72-hour upgrade window" for PPro, what does that mean? Does that mean there is no way for me to know if I am upgraded until T-72?
3. Would everything change if I have a companion with no status, and link to my reservation?
4. Any way to check the upgrade list?
Thanks!
2. Correct, and you may actually not know until you get to the gate (or are already on the plane). 72 hours pre-departure would be the earliest.
3. You’d be paired on the upgrade list. So, it potentially makes your odds worse. If you’re next on the list but only one seat is available, you’ll be skipped in favor of the next solo upgrader on the list.
4. Nope. Not until T-4h on the AA app.
#117
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Manhattan Beach, California
Programs: BMI Diamond Club Gold forever
Posts: 6,367
I've got a couple of SWUs left that expire on Jan 31 and I have an upcoming trip to the east coast where I could relatively easily use SFO-JFK in the itinerary to try to go Y-J. I see J7/D7 on a few flights that day, I am at roughly $30k rolling EQD. Thoughts on my chances for clearing? I also could do SEA-JFK and avoid the connection not even needing the SWU knowing that I will have cleared a few days out anyway on that segment. anyone regularly burn SWUs on SFO-JFK who can comment.
#118
Join Date: Jan 2012
Programs: AY+ Plat, Marriott Plat, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 2,846
Hello guys, I need some advice on this.
I am trying to fly from HNL to LAS.
There is this HNL-PHX-LAS flight from AA which has the first segments with A330, so first class has lie flats.
I am recently upgraded to a trial platinum pro, so I am not familiar with the upgrade possibility.
The date is 2/3/19 Sunday, and it is a red eye flight. I assume people would love those lie flats....
Currently there are even award space available... I can redeem 37500 BA avios on it,which sounds reasonable. (I have lots of avios)
The cash price for economy all the way to LAS is at $250. However I would only buy this if I know I am likely to be upgraded to first, since there is a direct Hawaiian flight to LAS for $299.
So right now I have 3 possible options:
1. Redeem 37500 Avios (I value them at $500) + $5 to fly confirm in first HNL-PHX, and use buddy pass for PHX- LAS ($30)
2. Purchase HNL-PHX-LAS in economy for $250, and wait for that upgrade to first.
3. Purchase HNL to LAS in economy on Hawaiian Airline for $299.
Obviously option 2 is the best if I can be upgraded, if not, then 3 would be better. I dont mind option 1, but I would hate to know if option 2 is viable.
Here are some questions:
1. As a platinum pro, what is my chance of getting upgrade on this flight?
2. It says "72-hour upgrade window" for PPro, what does that mean? Does that mean there is no way for me to know if I am upgraded until T-72?
3. Would everything change if I have a companion with no status, and link to my reservation?
4. Any way to check the upgrade list?
Thanks!
I am trying to fly from HNL to LAS.
There is this HNL-PHX-LAS flight from AA which has the first segments with A330, so first class has lie flats.
I am recently upgraded to a trial platinum pro, so I am not familiar with the upgrade possibility.
The date is 2/3/19 Sunday, and it is a red eye flight. I assume people would love those lie flats....
Currently there are even award space available... I can redeem 37500 BA avios on it,which sounds reasonable. (I have lots of avios)
The cash price for economy all the way to LAS is at $250. However I would only buy this if I know I am likely to be upgraded to first, since there is a direct Hawaiian flight to LAS for $299.
So right now I have 3 possible options:
1. Redeem 37500 Avios (I value them at $500) + $5 to fly confirm in first HNL-PHX, and use buddy pass for PHX- LAS ($30)
2. Purchase HNL-PHX-LAS in economy for $250, and wait for that upgrade to first.
3. Purchase HNL to LAS in economy on Hawaiian Airline for $299.
Obviously option 2 is the best if I can be upgraded, if not, then 3 would be better. I dont mind option 1, but I would hate to know if option 2 is viable.
Here are some questions:
1. As a platinum pro, what is my chance of getting upgrade on this flight?
2. It says "72-hour upgrade window" for PPro, what does that mean? Does that mean there is no way for me to know if I am upgraded until T-72?
3. Would everything change if I have a companion with no status, and link to my reservation?
4. Any way to check the upgrade list?
Thanks!
#120
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 17
My recommendation would be to use your Avios, or go with Hawaiian. I would not count on an upgrade going through. There is a lot of paid F on flights to Hawaii, I believe, and right now it looks like J5 on AA 693 on 2/3. So not that many seats left, even for purchase.