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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Oct 13, 18, 11:59 am   -   Wikipost
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Last edit by: aztimm
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Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
  • Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
      • Executive Platinum
        • Platinum Pro
          • Platinum
            • Gold
    • Upgrade type
      1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
        • 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
          • 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

      • Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
        • Booking class
          • Time of request"


See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
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Old Jan 24, 18, 1:23 pm
  #61  
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
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Thank you both for your thoughts. It seems like a wide body would be the way to go. I never thought of flying through HNL, that seems like a possible option as well. I've crossed off PHX.

Yeah I do have the Aviator credit card through Barclays and in the end, it came down to whether or not I wanted to get another 3000 EQD by spending more money on the Aviator vs spend it on other cards that had better return. I chose the latter since I figured I'm qualifying for EXP anyway. I may regret that decision later though.
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Old Jan 24, 18, 1:25 pm
  #62  
 
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Originally Posted by ntamayo View Post
It should be easier to clear upgrades ex-LAX simply due to more flights available, as opposed to a/c type.
Hmm that's something I never considered before. Thank you.

Also, from what I understand, nowadays upgrades are Y-> premium economy rather than Y->F for 777s on Hawaii flights. Is that correct?
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Old Jan 24, 18, 2:28 pm
  #63  
 
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Surprised that my SWU request for late April DFW-PVG round trip was cleared 3 months before the flight. I requested the SWU in the early this month and I was checking the EF once a while to see if any C inventory has been released for DFW-PVG, however my SWU was cleared without the C alert from EF. This is a first for me as in the past the TPAC SWU upgrade was always clear at the T-26 or later for me before this trip.
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Old Jan 25, 18, 8:57 am
  #64  
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Originally Posted by Antarius View Post
Good luck!

I am on ORD-PEK on 1/27.. that is J5 as well, hoping for that to clear.
Originally Posted by moonwoo View Post
Do you know if the PEK route is low volume? I travel to Korea several times a year and in October, I decided to fly through PEK on the way back (PEK-DFW). My upgrade (miles plus copay) cleared a few days prior to departure but that J class was completely empty. I was in the back cabin of the 788 and I was the only one except for someone who appeared to be one of the FAs mother. I also walked through the entire J cabin to find only 3 people in the front cabin also... That was a huge contrast to the DFW ICN which was completely full
We flew ORD-PEK and our upgrades didn't clear, in fact, we were #5-6 on the upgrade list. On the return, the PEK-DFW was wide open in J, when it went out they had 9 open seats, but we cleared on the PEK-ORD flight and it had 1 open seat on it in J. The PEK-LAX was full in J on our departure date. So if we didn't clear on the PEK-ORD I would have changed it to the PEK-DFW.
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Old Jan 28, 18, 7:53 pm
  #65  
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
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Inventory release for an SWU upgrade

So whats the consensus where with folks that have had their intl swus waitlisted...It looks like a empty flight so far for travel in about 6 months....albeit 0 C U inventory available in Business...So wanted to to figure out when and how and if AA might release inventory in since i need C to get released...If U gets opened does my waitlist automatically pick that up or do i need to call and confirm.....and since it is 6 month out Also I know upg swu are prioritized over miles/copy and within the different elite status tiers....but does Premium economy fare code better over Y Economy code...In other words do I give my self better chances booking as premeco or saving a few hundred and booking in why since it will be upto elite status anyway

Thanks
for any suggestions
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Old Jan 28, 18, 7:59 pm
  #66  
 
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Originally Posted by SVRIRED View Post
So whats the consensus where with folks that have had their intl swus waitlisted...It looks like a empty flight so far for travel in about 6 months....albeit 0 C U inventory available in Business...So wanted to to figure out when and how and if AA might release inventory in since i need C to get released...If U gets opened does my waitlist automatically pick that up or do i need to call and confirm.....and since it is 6 month out Also I know upg swu are prioritized over miles/copy and within the different elite status tiers....but does Premium economy fare code better over Y Economy code...In other words do I give my self better chances booking as premeco or saving a few hundred and booking in why since it will be upto elite status anyway

Thanks
for any suggestions
If you don't want to fly PE, and are only looking at chance for upgrade there is no advantage in booking code. Many flights C inventory does not open up until a few days before the flight. If you are 6 months out, and C0 then I dint think you will see C until a few days before departure.
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Old Jan 28, 18, 10:16 pm
  #67  
 
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Originally Posted by SVRIRED View Post
So whats the consensus where with folks that have had their intl swus waitlisted...It looks like a empty flight so far for travel in about 6 months....albeit 0 C U inventory available in Business...So wanted to to figure out when and how and if AA might release inventory in since i need C to get released...If U gets opened does my waitlist automatically pick that up or do i need to call and confirm.....and since it is 6 month out Also I know upg swu are prioritized over miles/copy and within the different elite status tiers....but does Premium economy fare code better over Y Economy code...In other words do I give my self better chances booking as premeco or saving a few hundred and booking in why since it will be upto elite status anyway

Thanks
for any suggestions
SWUs are not prioritized above miles + copay. Both come out of the C bucket and if C0 you will all be waitlisted. When waitlisting for SWU or Miles + Copay all that matters is status and rolling EQD.

CK > EXP > PPRO > PLT > GLD > No Status. Within each status, you are prioritized based on rolling EQD spend. U inventory has nothing to do with upgrades.Neither does Economy or Premium Economy.
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Old Jan 29, 18, 12:02 pm
  #68  
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Originally Posted by Antarius View Post
SWUs are not prioritized above miles + copay. Both come out of the C bucket and if C0 you will all be waitlisted. When waitlisting for SWU or Miles + Copay all that matters is status and rolling EQD.

CK > EXP > PPRO > PLT > GLD > No Status. Within each status, you are prioritized based on rolling EQD spend. U inventory has nothing to do with upgrades.Neither does Economy or Premium Economy.
There should be an mandatory way for people to view the Wiki before posting... This would cut many of the repeated questions in this thread.
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Old Jan 30, 18, 8:47 am
  #69  
 
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JFK - SFO (Monday afternoon flight last week) - upgraded 56 hours before flight
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Old Jan 30, 18, 9:00 am
  #70  
 
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Originally Posted by SVRIRED View Post
So whats the consensus where with folks that have had their intl swus waitlisted...It looks like a empty flight so far for travel in about 6 months....albeit 0 C U inventory available in Business...So wanted to to figure out when and how and if AA might release inventory in since i need C to get released...If U gets opened does my waitlist automatically pick that up or do i need to call and confirm.....and since it is 6 month out
I think it is harder than it used to be, since booking early used to put at the top of the upgrade waitlist, but now it doesn't. I used to book early on flights where MCE was empty since then I could be 99% certain there could be no upgraders in front of me, but now I feel like it is a better strategy to book late and to look for a wide open J cabin.

But in answer to your specific questions, C can open up at any time, and disappear at any time whilst it is most likely to open up a day or two before departure, it can open up two months before departure (I just scored C on LHR-LAX over two months out with a J cabin where over half the seats are already assigned). If you are on the waitlist then you shouldn't need to do anything when C becomes available (though there's no harm in calling and arranging your preferred seat, etc).

In general J only really fills up in the 1-3 weeks prior to a flight, and it can sometimes lose passengers in the day or two preceding the flight. More than 3 weeks in advance and there is not much change usually (roughly 1 new booking per week I would guess).
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Old Jan 30, 18, 11:34 am
  #71  
 
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0 for two this year
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Old Jan 30, 18, 3:38 pm
  #72  
 
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SWU for HKG-LAX for early April and LAX-HKG for late May both cleared at time of booking.

Looking at EF, it seems like there are plenty of C available between LAX and HKG (and on certain days, DFW and HKG as well). Some flights are showing as high as C7 (and the cabin is barely filled). My flight is more than half filled and it's C2!
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Old Jan 30, 18, 4:13 pm
  #73  
 
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Originally Posted by FlightNurse View Post
We flew ORD-PEK and our upgrades didn't clear, in fact, we were #5-6 on the upgrade list. On the return, the PEK-DFW was wide open in J, when it went out they had 9 open seats, but we cleared on the PEK-ORD flight and it had 1 open seat on it in J. The PEK-LAX was full in J on our departure date. So if we didn't clear on the PEK-ORD I would have changed it to the PEK-DFW.
Update: Just got back - my ORD-PEK cleared at T24 roughly and PEK-DFW cleared at booking.
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Old Jan 30, 18, 4:57 pm
  #74  
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Originally Posted by Antarius View Post
Update: Just got back - my ORD-PEK cleared at T24 roughly and PEK-DFW cleared at booking.
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Old Jan 31, 18, 6:06 am
  #75  
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The last two trips I tried to use SWUs on, the outbound (LGA(Y)-DFW-PEK, JFK-LAX-HKG) was available for SWU at booking, but not return, which was true throughout Dec 2017/Jan 2018. (Is this a general pattern? If so, why?)

While my return PEK-ORD cleared a day or two before departure, my HKG-LAX was a nail-biter, and did not clear until 1 hour prior to departure. I was already mentally prepared to take my Y seat. Monitoring availability on EF in the week leading up to HKG-LAX, J buckets fluctuated up and down, mostly down. Seat map showed 6 seats, then 8 seats, then back down to 6 seats unassigned. MCE did not show many seats become available (indicating possible upgraders, 2-3 aisle/window seats became available in the week prior). C never became available while monitoring or via alert. F also fluctuated between 1-3 available for upgrade or miles. Day of departure, it was J2 R1 D0 I0, or something similar.
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