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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Dec 17, 2017, 12:15 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
  • Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
      • Executive Platinum
        • Platinum Pro
          • Platinum
            • Gold
    • Upgrade type
      1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
        • 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
          • 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

      • Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
        • Booking class
          • Time of request"


See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Dec 6, 2018, 9:44 am
  #811  
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: STL/ORD/MCI/SAN
Programs: AA CK MM, AC SE100K, UA 1K, DL Plat, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 1,986
Originally Posted by GetSetJetSet
Didn't even clear CUN-JFK as EXP. What is the point if top tier status if you don't even clear upgrades on leisure routes during low season. I think i'm done with this next year.
I was almost burned by this recently on CUN-DFW. I was also trying to upgrade with a companion, which didn't help. Flight looked wide open at the time of booking, so we booked cheapo coach seats (like ~$200 RT) and got row 11 on the 32B, which I think is the best spot any couple traveling together in Y if you aren't upgraded... but we were counting on a fairly easy upgrade.

By the day of departure, though, J was down to one seat, and my companion didn't want to split, so I resigned myself to sitting in Y (we ended up being #1 and 2 on the airport list). About 15 minutes before boarding, another couple jumped ahead of us on the list, bumping us to #3 and 4. Somehow, though, there were 5 J seats available last minute, so all of us, plus #5 (who split from #6 -- we overheard all the GA discussion) received battlefield upgrades, but normally I wouldn't have let it get to that point, as I was really expecting to sit in J.

For a subsequent trip to AUA, we bit the bullet and just booked fairly pricey J seats (booked into 'D') to avoid the mess of the airport upgrade list. We literally got the last two J seats on the A319 AUA-PHL on the way back, and this was way before the elite upgrade window opened. Bottom line... even leisure routes can be tough for upgrades, and some totally sell out, with no upgrades being cleared. This seems to happen particularly on certain days/times and around certain holidays, but it can be tough to predict.

It seems that more passengers are simply paying to sit up front.
metallo is offline  
Old Dec 6, 2018, 10:35 am
  #812  
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: NC
Programs: AA, Marriott/SPG, AMEX
Posts: 272
Originally Posted by JJeffrey
What exactly do you mean by "claw back?"
Will they put my husband back into Y (where he had a very good seat before his upgrade) in an effort to accommodate passengers who have to be rebooked due to the coming storm? The exact forecast is a moving target but it is going to be a big mess.
hipquest is offline  
Old Dec 6, 2018, 11:03 am
  #813  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Wesley Chapel, FL
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 29,993
I'm #1 on the list for 1 seat back to DFW. I'm not holding my breath and will grab a sandwich beforehand.

Never mind. I was ousted out of 1st into 2nd. Quizno's here I come!

ETA I moved up to 1 and was upgraded at the boarding announcement. Unfortunately I already ate lunch.

Last edited by enviroian; Dec 6, 2018 at 1:41 pm
enviroian is offline  
Old Dec 6, 2018, 11:14 am
  #814  
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Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,453
Originally Posted by hipquest
Will they put my husband back into Y (where he had a very good seat before his upgrade) in an effort to accommodate passengers who have to be rebooked due to the coming storm? The exact forecast is a moving target but it is going to be a big mess.
Absolutely not. He's confirmed in business now.
JJeffrey is offline  
Old Dec 6, 2018, 11:30 am
  #815  
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: NC
Programs: AA, Marriott/SPG, AMEX
Posts: 272
Originally Posted by JJeffrey
Absolutely not. He's confirmed in business now.
Thank you! I thought that might be the case but we just started using his miles for upgrades. I'm learning all the ins and outs. This thread and FT have been great to learn!
hipquest is offline  
Old Dec 6, 2018, 3:15 pm
  #816  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: En Route
Programs: Many
Posts: 6,798
Originally Posted by dkc192
When did you fly? I'd argue Thanksgiving to Christmas is high season for CUN, particularly in the front end of the plane which would be filled with families (as opposed to college students filling the back over spring break).
Flight is coming up on the 9th, cleared though...app just hadn't updated. I am going by what the hotel said, they said "high season" starts around Dec. 18.
GetSetJetSet is offline  
Old Dec 6, 2018, 6:56 pm
  #817  
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: DFW
Posts: 270
Originally Posted by GetSetJetSet
Flight is coming up on the 9th, cleared though...app just hadn't updated. I am going by what the hotel said, they said "high season" starts around Dec. 18.
High season in hotel talk is when THEY start charging more. Not necessarily true high season.
shaddie is offline  
Old Dec 6, 2018, 9:08 pm
  #818  
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: AZ
Programs: AA Exec Plat; Marriott Plat; HHonors Diamond; Hertz PC
Posts: 213
Originally Posted by enviroian
Dfw- indianapolis cleared at only T-23 on a Sunday no less!? A few years ago that would have easily cleared at T-100.

Times have changed!
I am flying PHX to SFO at 9:35PM Friday night and not only does EF show J7 but the back of the plane is only 20% full but my upgrade just cleared T-25. Why not at T-100, beats me!
Assimilated Cajun likes this.
phxbarcelona is offline  
Old Dec 7, 2018, 2:26 pm
  #819  
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum/MM, DL Gold/MM, Hilton Diamond, Accor Platinum, Hertz Presidents Circle
Posts: 6,970
Originally Posted by enviroian
Also the 788's on the ORD-DFW and vice versa routes. I'm always in the teens on that list of 50+ passengers.
I don't understand why that is. Mathematically the ratio of F/J to Y seats is one of the better ones in the fleet. Do more people buying F target that plane to get the better seat, even on a route like DFW-ORD? I know a hub-to-hub route like that can be elite heavy but that would presumably affect all planes equally. I have two flights booked in Feb on the 788 between DFW and ORD, so I hope you're wrong. The J cabin is showing mostly empty now, but I know that doesn't mean much.
Stripe is offline  
Old Dec 7, 2018, 2:36 pm
  #820  
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: DCA/IAD/WAS
Programs: MAR AMB, WOH Explorist, AA EXP, UA 2P
Posts: 2,138
Originally Posted by Stripe
I don't understand why that is. Mathematically the ratio of F/J to Y seats is one of the better ones in the fleet. Do more people buying F target that plane to get the better seat, even on a route like DFW-ORD? I know a hub-to-hub route like that can be elite heavy but that would presumably affect all planes equally. I have two flights booked in Feb on the 788 between DFW and ORD, so I hope you're wrong. The J cabin is showing mostly empty now, but I know that doesn't mean much.
I just think a lot of frequent travelers go between ORD and DFW (whether as destinations or connections).
planecrashlaw likes this.
iadisgreat is offline  
Old Dec 7, 2018, 5:03 pm
  #821  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: DEN
Programs: DL PM, Hyatt Explorist, Hilton Gold
Posts: 395
Just booked my wife a LHR-LAX trip for late January and there is some great SWU availability right now. Her LHR-DFW 1/24 was C5 and LHR-LAX 1/30 was C3 I believe. Now both are one less : ) More availability within that week when I was looking as well.
Youngtraveldude is offline  
Old Dec 7, 2018, 5:22 pm
  #822  
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Vail, CO
Programs: AA EXP/1mm, Marriott Titanium/LT Gold, UA Silver
Posts: 626
Yesterday JFK-LAX at 330pm - was #6 (EXP - ~29K EQDs) using a BXP1 - 1-5 cleared :/.

Now that is some competition!
uscjeff is offline  
Old Dec 8, 2018, 6:50 am
  #823  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Los Angeles
Programs: American Airlines ExecPlat, Asiana Diamond
Posts: 126
I’m doing an extreme route on Monday, DPS to TPE to LAX then a flight from LAX to MIA and straight off the plane to work. Since I wanted sleep, I used my last SWU on the LAX to MIA flight just in case.

Color me surprised but since First was pretty open, they gave my 500mile upgrade priority; so they upgraded me with that and let me keep my SWU. Didn’t know it was smart enough to do that.
Rukes is offline  
Old Dec 8, 2018, 9:16 am
  #824  
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: SoCal
Programs: AA EXP, HHonors LTDia, Marriott Plat
Posts: 639
Originally Posted by enviroian
Dfw- indianapolis cleared at only T-23 on a Sunday no less!? A few years ago that would have easily cleared at T-100.

Times have changed!
AA has been holding these seats back for the last year until just after check in. When I check a couple of days before most are open. Something in the algorithm must be saying to hold on to these because of mechanical, weather, etc. Before they switched out the MD80s, we would have a mechanical at least 1/2 the time.
TSparky is offline  
Old Dec 8, 2018, 9:43 am
  #825  
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
Originally Posted by Stripe
I don't understand why that is. Mathematically the ratio of F/J to Y seats is one of the better ones in the fleet. Do more people buying F target that plane to get the better seat, even on a route like DFW-ORD? I know a hub-to-hub route like that can be elite heavy but that would presumably affect all planes equally. I have two flights booked in Feb on the 788 between DFW and ORD, so I hope you're wrong. The J cabin is showing mostly empty now, but I know that doesn't mean much.
I would guess a lot of EXPs prefer the 788 simply because it has lie-flat J and the other options on that route don't. Anytime I'm flying domestic and see a widebody that's my strong preference.
TSparky likes this.
HLCinCOU is offline  


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