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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

Old Dec 17, 2017, 12:15 pm
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Last edit by: aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
  • Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
      • Executive Platinum
        • Platinum Pro
          • Platinum
            • Gold
    • Upgrade type
      1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
        • 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
          • 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

      • Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
        • Booking class
          • Time of request"


See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

Old Apr 18, 2018, 8:43 pm
  #211  
 
Join Date: May 2007
Programs: UA 1K, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 5,342
Originally Posted by Rsherwin


I would guess you will not get it. I’m on a BOS - DFW flight right now (Wed afternoon at 2pm), and was #8 on UPG list as an EXP. At this rate, I would guess Platinum’s get 1 out of 15 or 1 out of 20 upgrades, especially if DFW is involved. Any Plat’s care to share?
I was once #23 as an EXP on DFW - BOS on a Monday evening after a long weekend.
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Old Apr 18, 2018, 8:56 pm
  #212  
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: PHX & AGP
Programs: AA Lifetime PLT, Bonvoy Lifetime Titanium, Hilton Gold
Posts: 11,408
Originally Posted by Steven6702
It's been a long time since I was elite, but I recently qualified to Platinum and wondering about my chances in general on a particular route of DFW-BDL. I don't have specific dates in mind yet, but just wondering if that's generally a route that I could hope to upgrade on with a companion. I have high EQD for a Plat (about 12K right now) but don't know if that's a heavily traveled route by EXPs/PPs such that my EQD won't even be a factor. Appreciate any advice.
People have posted data that shows if you are not flying HUB to HUB or to higher demand cities that your changes of upgrades is good.
FlightNurse is offline  
Old Apr 18, 2018, 11:11 pm
  #213  
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: DFW
Programs: AAdvantage EXP, HHonors Gold, Marriott Rewards Lifetime Gold Elite
Posts: 14
Smile 2018 SWU's

Update on my SWU for Flt 125 (DFW - HKG) on Saturday, 3/17/18. My wife and I ended up being #10 & 11 on the Airport Upgrade List. None cleared. F & J went out full.
Was glad that our SWU's cleared well in advance(3 months) for the return leg. AA 60 (NRT - DFW). Only have 3 more international flights booked for the remainder of 2018. They are in purchased J class (2 cabin equipment). Now trying to determine what flights to use my remaining SWU's on. Most of my domestic flights are short haul (less than 1,000 miles), however, I hate to see them expire in January 2019. I want to use them.

Any suggestions?
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Old Apr 19, 2018, 3:49 pm
  #214  
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, SPG AMB, AS MVP Gold 75K, UA Silver, Hertz President's Circle
Posts: 4
My SWUs (Y to J) on JFK-LHR and MAD-JFK cleared for both my wife and I. Almost 5 weeks ahead of trip Pretty happy right now.
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Old Apr 22, 2018, 8:47 am
  #215  
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Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: DEN
Programs: AA EXP, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 2,562
Cleared Y-J SWU DEN-DFW-GRU for a Monday in May just now. Noticed it was showing available on the website, called in, and applied the SWU.

That makes all 4 of my 2017-earned SWUs used - all clearing either at booking or weeks ahead of the flight; and continues my record of never having missed an SWU during my time as EXP.
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Old Apr 23, 2018, 7:12 pm
  #216  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: DCA
Programs: AA EXP; BoNVoY Tit LTP
Posts: 1,920
I am still waiting for upgrade space for my SWUs to open on MIA-MXP this Thursday, a flight that is listed on EF as J7 and appears to have possibly 15 seats on the seat map. Any way to make this happen sooner?
ckendall is offline  
Old Apr 24, 2018, 12:05 pm
  #217  
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Roswell, GA
Programs: AA EXP 2.8m,Lifetime PLT, Hilton Diamond, IHG PlLT, SPG Gold
Posts: 3,191
My swu cleared J to F for atl
to lhr via dfw departing July 13
returning the next week
zpaul likes this.
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Old Apr 24, 2018, 12:28 pm
  #218  
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Originally Posted by ckendall
I am still waiting for upgrade space for my SWUs to open on MIA-MXP this Thursday, a flight that is listed on EF as J7 and appears to have possibly 15 seats on the seat map. Any way to make this happen sooner?
I'm on MIA-MXP tomorrow (Apr 25) and C space finally opened up this morning (Apr 24) around 9am MIA time. This flight was completely wide open (seatmap only 25% full in business and 7's across the board on EF).

No idea what AA is thinking on this flight but it's obvious they're holding space on it till the last minute. There was tons of other C space open much further in advance this week on a variety of TATL flights that were way more full in business than this one.
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Old Apr 24, 2018, 12:48 pm
  #219  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: DCA
Programs: AA EXP; BoNVoY Tit LTP
Posts: 1,920
Originally Posted by JJeffrey
I'm on MIA-MXP tomorrow (Apr 25) and C space finally opened up this morning (Apr 24) around 9am MIA time. This flight was completely wide open (seatmap only 25% full in business and 7's across the board on EF).

No idea what AA is thinking on this flight but it's obvious they're holding space on it till the last minute. There was tons of other C space open much further in advance this week on a variety of TATL flights that were way more full in business than this one.
Thanks you give me hope!
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Old Apr 25, 2018, 6:49 am
  #220  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: DCA
Programs: AA EXP; BoNVoY Tit LTP
Posts: 1,920
Originally Posted by JJeffrey
I'm on MIA-MXP tomorrow (Apr 25) and C space finally opened up this morning (Apr 24) around 9am MIA time. This flight was completely wide open (seatmap only 25% full in business and 7's across the board on EF).

No idea what AA is thinking on this flight but it's obvious they're holding space on it till the last minute. There was tons of other C space open much further in advance this week on a variety of TATL flights that were way more full in business than this one.
I got the email this am at just before 8am MIA time, so things are improving! Both of us cleared so I am a happy camper.
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Old Apr 25, 2018, 8:03 am
  #221  
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Programs: AA EXP, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 394
LHR-ORD May 12th, one seat in J left odds are not looking good!
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Old Apr 25, 2018, 8:38 am
  #222  
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Not SWU related but am 100% this year (9 out of 9) on complimentary upgrades for EXP on Award tickets.

pleasantly surprised.
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Old Apr 25, 2018, 8:42 am
  #223  
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Chicago, IL
Programs: AA EXP (LT Plat 2MM), Marriott Plat, IHG Plat, HHonors Diamond, Hyatt Plat, SPG Plat75, UA1K
Posts: 1,248
SWU Clearing PHL-CDG/AMS-DFW

Booked 9/1 PHL-CDG and the 9/9 AMS-DFW. Two of us ticketed in PE. I am an EXP but will have a low rolling dollar amount at the time of the trip. Looks like the outbound is J7 with 12 seats unassigned on the seatmap (and yes I know that isn't a totally accurate indicator). The return AMS-DFW is J7 with 27 seats unassigned in J.
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Old Apr 25, 2018, 10:00 am
  #224  
 
Join Date: May 2007
Programs: UA 1K, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 5,342
Originally Posted by ORDPLATAA
Booked 9/1 PHL-CDG and the 9/9 AMS-DFW. Two of us ticketed in PE. I am an EXP but will have a low rolling dollar amount at the time of the trip. Looks like the outbound is J7 with 12 seats unassigned on the seatmap (and yes I know that isn't a totally accurate indicator). The return AMS-DFW is J7 with 27 seats unassigned in J.
I'd honestly not expect the outbound to clear. Assuming the flight is operated by a 332 with one seat blocked for crew rest, you already have 7 of 19 seats (~40%) assigned over four months out, and at this rate the cabin could fill up with revenue pax several weeks before departure. The return looks far more promising at this point in time.
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Old Apr 26, 2018, 9:53 pm
  #225  
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: DFW
Programs: AAdvantage EXP, HHonors Gold, Marriott Rewards Lifetime Gold Elite
Posts: 14
How far in advance are you fellow EXP's booking TATL's in order to get SWU's confirmed at the time of booking? I am particularly interested in DFW departures. I find it particularly difficult to find any flights that offer C space available at time of booking on any flights to cities that are serviced by 2 cabin aircraft. AA seems to be reducing the number of 3 cabin aircraft going to Europe.

Any comments are welcomed.

TIA
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