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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Oct 13, 18, 11:59 am   -   Wikipost
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Last edit by: aztimm
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Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
  • Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
      • Executive Platinum
        • Platinum Pro
          • Platinum
            • Gold
    • Upgrade type
      1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
        • 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
          • 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

      • Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
        • Booking class
          • Time of request"


See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
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Old Dec 15, 17, 5:23 pm
  #1  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: DEN
Programs: AA EXP, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 1,889
Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

Technically 2018 - but we don't have a thread for that yet.

Cleared SWU Y-->J ORD-NRT at booking today (along with the connecting domestic leg) for a Monday flight in late January.

I am 2/2 so far on Y-->J SWUs clearing at booking for 2018 flights - both in January. ^
bse118 is offline  
Old Jan 2, 18, 1:22 pm
  #2  
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: New York
Programs: AA EXP 1.0mm, not sure where I am with hotels these days
Posts: 2,756
Received a pleasant surprise 48 hours out that I was upgraded on tomorrow morning LGA DFW flight. Rare. In fact, all four of my segments were upgraded this trip.
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Old Jan 2, 18, 1:43 pm
  #3  
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: KHOU + KSFO
Programs: AA EXP | Marriott Bonvoy Ambassador | Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 5,618
Originally Posted by george 3 View Post
Received a pleasant surprise 48 hours out that I was upgraded on tomorrow morning LGA DFW flight. Rare. In fact, all four of my segments were upgraded this trip.
I cleared AUA-CLT-IAH at T100 yesterday.

Also was on a mileage ticket. 15k Milesaver saved me 550 USD.
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Antarius is online now  
Old Jan 3, 18, 1:41 pm
  #4  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: Austin, TX
Programs: AAdvantage Platinum
Posts: 11
I've never flown internationally before, but someone was kind enough to gift me an SWU.
Outbound PHL to FCO is basically full up front, but it's been applied for the return trip.
Anyone have any insight? FCO to PHL on 1/22, AA 719
There are other segments but they're domestic and I don't care so much about those. Plus my layovers are all in airports with Centurion Lounges so I can relax there.
Thanks!
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Old Jan 3, 18, 2:06 pm
  #5  
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: KHOU + KSFO
Programs: AA EXP | Marriott Bonvoy Ambassador | Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 5,618
Originally Posted by Brandonjt View Post
I've never flown internationally before, but someone was kind enough to gift me an SWU.
Outbound PHL to FCO is basically full up front, but it's been applied for the return trip.
Anyone have any insight? FCO to PHL on 1/22, AA 719
There are other segments but they're domestic and I don't care so much about those. Plus my layovers are all in airports with Centurion Lounges so I can relax there.
Thanks!
FCO-PHL is J7 R6 D4 I2 W7 P7 Y7 B0 H7 K7 M7 L7 G7 V7 S7 N7 Q7 O7 E7 with 8 of the 20 J seats open
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Old Jan 3, 18, 2:06 pm
  #6  
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: SFO
Programs: AA EXP, SPG / Marriott GLD, HHonors GLD
Posts: 504
Originally Posted by Brandonjt View Post
I've never flown internationally before, but someone was kind enough to gift me an SWU.
Outbound PHL to FCO is basically full up front, but it's been applied for the return trip.
Anyone have any insight? FCO to PHL on 1/22, AA 719
There are other segments but they're domestic and I don't care so much about those. Plus my layovers are all in airports with Centurion Lounges so I can relax there.
Thanks!
EF shows J7 R6 D4 I2 and 8 open seats with 1 blocked out of 20 J seats. Not very familiar with the route but doesn't look too full yet. Unfortunately as a non-status passenger you'll be behind all other elites using SWUs and Miles + Copays but hopefully you get good luck and it clears
lds89 is offline  
Old Jan 3, 18, 4:59 pm
  #7  
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: CLT
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 861
Originally Posted by Brandonjt View Post
There are other segments but they're domestic and I don't care so much about those. Plus my layovers are all in airports with Centurion Lounges so I can relax there.
Thanks!
The other segments, if on AA, are also eligible for upgrade on the same SWU if F (J) is offered on the flight (as in won't cost you additional SWUs).
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Old Jan 3, 18, 6:54 pm
  #8  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: Austin, TX
Programs: AAdvantage Platinum
Posts: 11
Originally Posted by ACA321 View Post
The other segments, if on AA, are also eligible for upgrade on the same SWU if F (J) is offered on the flight (as in won't cost you additional SWUs).
Ah yes, I was aware of this. I am just unconcerned if they actually upgrade or not. Thanks for making sure I knew though!
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Old Jan 3, 18, 8:37 pm
  #9  
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: CLT
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 861
Originally Posted by Brandonjt View Post
Ah yes, I was aware of this. I am just unconcerned if they actually upgrade or not. Thanks for making sure I knew though!
No problem! Good luck with the upgrade(s).
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Old Jan 4, 18, 9:48 am
  #10  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 719
I apologize for posting here (I could've sworn I saw a thread for upgrade chances clearing or something like that) but I don't think this is a considered an SWU?
Is there a way to check/find what chance you may have of clearing an upgrade (Gold, bottom of the barrel) with a 500-mile upgrade (the flight segments are all over 500 miles, so no complimentary upgrades).

It would be 1/17/18 Flight #'s:
1920 (ALB-CLT)
455 (CLT-DFW)
and
3287 (DFW-GJT)

If I've asked in the wrong forum, I apologize (just point me in the right direction). I'm not savvy with ExpertFlyer so I don't know what fare buckets correspond to what.
Thanks!
hurnik is offline  
Old Jan 4, 18, 5:03 pm
  #11  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: Austin, TX
Programs: AAdvantage Platinum
Posts: 11
I'm not familiar with actual chances, but I'll give you the research and what little I know of it.
1/17 is a Wednesday, so it shouldn't be all that busy with business travelers who tend to clump at the beginning and end of weekdays.
ALB-CLT 8:00AM J4 D3 I2 Y7 with 4 of 12 seats still open on seating chart
CLT-DFW 11:45AM J7 D7 I4 Y7 with 8 of 16 seats still open on seating chart
DFW-GJT 2:40PM J7 D7 I7 Y7 with 11 of 12 seats still open on seating chart
From other posts I've read on here, I is one of most important indicators, because those are how many seats they are actively TRYING to sell.
Only 4 seats left on the first flight so I'd have a hard time chiming in there. Uneducated guess is that your CLT-DFW looks best. DFW is a hard upgrade because it's so busy but lots of open seats and I7.
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Old Jan 5, 18, 10:49 am
  #12  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 719
Originally Posted by Brandonjt View Post
I'm not familiar with actual chances, but I'll give you the research and what little I know of it.
1/17 is a Wednesday, so it shouldn't be all that busy with business travelers who tend to clump at the beginning and end of weekdays.
ALB-CLT 8:00AM J4 D3 I2 Y7 with 4 of 12 seats still open on seating chart
CLT-DFW 11:45AM J7 D7 I4 Y7 with 8 of 16 seats still open on seating chart
DFW-GJT 2:40PM J7 D7 I7 Y7 with 11 of 12 seats still open on seating chart
From other posts I've read on here, I is one of most important indicators, because those are how many seats they are actively TRYING to sell.
Only 4 seats left on the first flight so I'd have a hard time chiming in there. Uneducated guess is that your CLT-DFW looks best. DFW is a hard upgrade because it's so busy but lots of open seats and I7.
Thanks! (I'm really hoping for the last leg because it's a CRJ--LOL)

But we'll see what happens. There are truly worse things in life than flying in coach, even on a 2.5 hour or thereabout CRJ ride (ugh). A few drinks and I could probably sleep. haha
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Old Jan 5, 18, 4:02 pm
  #13  
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Programs: HH Lifetime Diamond; AA EXP / 2MM Lifetime Platnum; Hyatt Diamond
Posts: 64
Family of 3 all cleared AA 176 NRT-DFW for flight on 1/2/18 within a week before flight. 1 cleared on 12/28 and rest of cleared the next day

AA 176 went MX and canceled so we were all ultimately rerouted through LAX. Original rebooked flights were in economy through ORD and so I called in to the EP line to give them my 2 cents.
SWU Upgrades were preserved and honored onto the new rebooked flights through LAX. At gate in HND, a few seats in J and premium economy were still available.

Funny thing is, a lot of non-elites were openly talking about seeing how they can get an operational upgrade but were told $300 to either J or premium economy for the upgrade upcharge.

Having said that, I did not see any of those people talking about "scoring a 2k upgrade for free" in the J cabin....
nanaflyer is offline  
Old Jan 9, 18, 5:41 pm
  #14  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 18
Can anybody share about their experience with SWU's clearing for AA27/26 LAX/HND. I'm booked leaving 4/26 with return on 4/30. Expert Flyer shows 0 C award space as of today but I've set alerts.
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Old Jan 9, 18, 6:21 pm
  #15  
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: SFO
Programs: AA EXP, SPG / Marriott GLD, HHonors GLD
Posts: 504
Originally Posted by tasty_chicken View Post
Can anybody share about their experience with SWU's clearing for AA27/26 LAX/HND. I'm booked leaving 4/26 with return on 4/30. Expert Flyer shows 0 C award space as of today but I've set alerts.
I had the return (HND-LAX) back in October. It was J2 and C0 with three seats open on the seat map. I set a C alert too and ~30 hours before flight time the EF alert (C1) came through - I immediately contacted AA on twitter and secured the upgrade within 10 minutes. Not sure if I jumped the queue as a result, because only 2 people cleared at the gate and the list had 7-8 people on it. So keep an eye out on the C space.

for you cabins look fairly empty so far (both J7+) so good luck!
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