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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Oct 13, 18, 11:59 am   -   Wikipost
Please read: This is a community-maintained wiki post containing the most important information from this thread. You may edit the Wiki once you have been on FT for 90 days and have made 90 posts.
 
Last edit by: aztimm
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Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
  • Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
      • Executive Platinum
        • Platinum Pro
          • Platinum
            • Gold
    • Upgrade type
      1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
        • 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
          • 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

      • Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
        • Booking class
          • Time of request"


See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
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Old Jan 9, 18, 9:46 pm
  #16  
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Programs: HH Lifetime Diamond; AA EXP / 2MM Lifetime Platnum; Hyatt Diamond
Posts: 64
Originally Posted by lds89 View Post
I had the return (HND-LAX) back in October. It was J2 and C0 with three seats open on the seat map. I set a C alert too and ~30 hours before flight time the EF alert (C1) came through - I immediately contacted AA on twitter and secured the upgrade within 10 minutes. Not sure if I jumped the queue as a result, because only 2 people cleared at the gate and the list had 7-8 people on it. So keep an eye out on the C space.

for you cabins look fairly empty so far (both J7+) so good luck!

I think it might be a little harder going forward now because the plane is changed to a 789 instead of the 772. Its down to 30 J seats from 37 in the 772.
nanaflyer is offline  
Old Jan 10, 18, 1:31 am
  #17  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: NYC, SFO
Programs: AY+ Plat, AA Plat, Marriott Titanium, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 2,840
Originally Posted by tasty_chicken View Post
Can anybody share about their experience with SWU's clearing for AA27/26 LAX/HND. I'm booked leaving 4/26 with return on 4/30. Expert Flyer shows 0 C award space as of today but I've set alerts.
The end of your trip coincides with the start of Golden Week. Not sure how that will affect your chances, but expect things to be crowded.
flyingeph12 is offline  
Old Jan 10, 18, 7:40 am
  #18  
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 148
Originally Posted by george 3 View Post
Received a pleasant surprise 48 hours out that I was upgraded on tomorrow morning LGA DFW flight. Rare. In fact, all four of my segments were upgraded this trip.
I did LGA / DFW in September / October and was 3/4 for upgrades. I really thought it was a popular route but apparently not and I've cleared 100 hours for one of the flights. I am flying this route later in the year and fairly confident it will be upgraded. For me the hardest upgrades are JFK - SFO and I just booked a ticket yesterday for a trip in 2 weeks.
Fine Art Landscape Photographer is offline  
Old Jan 10, 18, 2:45 pm
  #19  
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: SFO
Programs: AA EXP, SPG / Marriott GLD, HHonors GLD
Posts: 505
Originally Posted by nanaflyer View Post
I think it might be a little harder going forward now because the plane is changed to a 789 instead of the 772. Its down to 30 J seats from 37 in the 772.
That's a good point, I had the 772
lds89 is offline  
Old Jan 10, 18, 2:50 pm
  #20  
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Join Date: May 2013
Location: NYC
Programs: DL Diamond, AAdvantage EXP, Hyatt Explorist, HHonors Diamond, Avis First
Posts: 7,345
I love flying in Jan.....both my UPG's on LGA-ORD-LGA cleared at the window recently for my work trip. I'll be having the "beef filet" tomorrow night back to NYC. It has been hard to get ORD-LGA to clear anything but at the gate during Q3/Q4 in 2017.
AANYC1981 is offline  
Old Jan 12, 18, 5:26 pm
  #21  
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: PDX
Programs: AA EXP, HHonors Diamond, Avis First
Posts: 99
What's the "easiest" route for J upgrade to LHR?

Hi all, I'll be traveling to London in October and have my choice of almost every hub to connect through (LAX, PHX, ORD, DFW, CLT). In your experience, what is my best choice for the easiest, or most likely, SWU upgrade to biz?
infinite97 is offline  
Old Jan 12, 18, 5:48 pm
  #22  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: NYC, SFO
Programs: AY+ Plat, AA Plat, Marriott Titanium, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 2,840
Originally Posted by infinite97 View Post
Hi all, I'll be traveling to London in October and have my choice of almost every hub to connect through (LAX, PHX, ORD, DFW, CLT). In your experience, what is my best choice for the easiest, or most likely, SWU upgrade to biz?
There are so many factors that go into predicting chances of clearing that it's hard to say definitively that one hub is better than others. That being said, I would probably generally pick ORD or JFK.

DFW has too many EXPs. PHL and CLT probably have a lot of EXPs, too, and the A330 only has 20 or 28 business class seats. LAX could be tough because it's a relatively longer flight, although the 77W does have more J seats, so that might be a close third in my book.

However, it's hard to say anything categorically here, so take what I've said with a grain of salt.
flyingeph12 is offline  
Old Jan 12, 18, 5:52 pm
  #23  
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: PDX
Programs: AA EXP, HHonors Diamond, Avis First
Posts: 99
Originally Posted by flyingeph12 View Post
There are so many factors that go into predicting chances of clearing that it's hard to say definitively that one hub is better than others. That being said, I would probably generally pick ORD or JFK.

DFW has too many EXPs. PHL and CLT probably have a lot of EXPs, too, and the A330 only has 20 or 28 business class seats. LAX could be tough because it's a relatively longer flight, although the 77W does have more J seats, so that might be a close third in my book.

However, it's hard to say anything categorically here, so take what I've said with a grain of salt.

Thanks. Coming from PDX, so can't do JFK without making another stop, which isn't worth it. Appreciate the help
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Old Jan 12, 18, 5:56 pm
  #24  
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: KHOU + KSFO
Programs: AA EXP | Marriott Bonvoy Ambassador | Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 6,326
Originally Posted by infinite97 View Post
Thanks. Coming from PDX, so can't do JFK without making another stop, which isn't worth it. Appreciate the help
I'd go LAX. And if you can wiggle your dates, try a Tuesday or Wednesday.

Plus you get the longer flight, which makes it better to sleep. JFK-LHR is short enough that I'm still tired no matter whether in Y or J or F.
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Antarius is offline  
Old Jan 12, 18, 6:08 pm
  #25  
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Posts: 7,345
Really don't like Northeast US-LHR.....too short and no matter what cabin I'm in I still feel like crap the following day.
AANYC1981 is offline  
Old Jan 12, 18, 6:10 pm
  #26  
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: PDX
Programs: AA EXP, HHonors Diamond, Avis First
Posts: 99
Originally Posted by Antarius View Post
I'd go LAX. And if you can wiggle your dates, try a Tuesday or Wednesday.

Plus you get the longer flight, which makes it better to sleep. JFK-LHR is short enough that I'm still tired no matter whether in Y or J or F.
yes, we'll be going wed > wed. I also prefer the long LAX > LHR flights! More time in the bigger seat is always appreciated.
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Old Jan 12, 18, 7:50 pm
  #27  
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: ORD
Programs: AA EXP, Hyatt Diamond, Marriott Gold, Hilton Gold, Hertz PC
Posts: 449
Originally Posted by infinite97 View Post
yes, we'll be going wed > wed. I also prefer the long LAX > LHR flights! More time in the bigger seat is always appreciated.
Have you checked to see if upgrades are available now for your dates? It doesn’t look like there is much out there but I did see a LHR - DFW with 2 SWU available for one Wednesday in October. If your dates are flexible it might be worth a bit a research.
AlwaysSunnyInORD is offline  
Old Jan 12, 18, 8:18 pm
  #28  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: NYC, SFO
Programs: AY+ Plat, AA Plat, Marriott Titanium, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 2,840
Originally Posted by AANYC1981 View Post
Really don't like Northeast US-LHR.....too short and no matter what cabin I'm in I still feel like crap the following day.
Agreed, which is why, generally speaking, I would say JFK-LHR is an easier upgrade than LAX-LHR. If we are talking about the best upgrade, of course LAX-LHR is more worth it. A Wednesday departure, however, might increase odds of a LAX-LHR clearing.

Since OP is not traveling until October (10 months away), and since there is no longer a benefit (at least in terms of upgrade chances) to book and request upgrades early, maybe OP should wait to book, unless the price is especially attractive at the moment. OP can between now and then monitor availability and book whichever route has C space open up. The chance of clearing an upgrade then becomes 100%.
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Old Jan 13, 18, 8:15 am
  #29  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA EXP; Marriott BonVoy Titanium Elite, SPG LT Plat
Posts: 1,521
I recently started a EF subscription and have a question for the mob. For intra-US flights, does one need to also wait for C space to be available to book into next class be it F/J on two class aircraft? Is there a forum/thread for EF DIY learning?
Thanks in advance.
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Old Jan 13, 18, 1:07 pm
  #30  
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: KHOU + KSFO
Programs: AA EXP | Marriott Bonvoy Ambassador | Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 6,326
Originally Posted by Zacnlinc View Post
I recently started a EF subscription and have a question for the mob. For intra-US flights, does one need to also wait for C space to be available to book into next class be it F/J on two class aircraft? Is there a forum/thread for EF DIY learning?
Thanks in advance.
This is probably your best bet. ExpertFlyer.com Help Desk Thread

When you say for intra-US flights.... are you looking to use a SWU/miles-copay? If so, yes, it is C for Y to J and A from J to F. About a year ago, AA standardized their fare buckets.. so while it is called FIRST domestically, and BUSINESS internationally (for 2 class flights), they both use J for full fare, C for upgrade and U for milesaver awards.
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