Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

I believe the different is people who ha e not chosen a seat.

When we went to PEK in Nov, our upgrade did not clear going but did clear on the return. On the return, the PEK-DFW was wide open on departure date home. We had cleared our PEK-ORD so I didn't switch our flights. From the date points from last year, flights out of DFW and LAX seem to be good chances.

I flew a couple of weeks ago. ORD-PEK seemed to have the best availability of the lot, so took that on the outbound. I would say Thursday, although it kind of depends on what EF says.

Yes, typically a tough UG on Fridays, Sundays, and Mondays, competing with corporate biz travelers.

All you can do is look at EF for the days you are thinking of traveling. On Friday 9 march, the LAX flight would look like the best chance, but the day before, I would say DFW is better.

But you are also still 4 weeks out and most J bookings occur in the 1-3 weeks out time frame, so it could all change.

I'm not convinced they haven't been blocking seats for sale on some routes (particularly those serviced by the A330). Quite consistently, I am seeing one more empty seat on the seatmap than what is available in J (when J < 7). I can't imagine that EVERY flight has one and only one person who hasn't selected a seat in J.

Of course, have no actual proof of this, but I find the seatmaps in J generally track very close if not exactly to actual load, though YMMV.

Question for the crowd: As a gold elite, if I request a miles& copay upgrade for a itinerary with C inventory available on all legs would it clear immediately? Or are my odds of an upgrade similar to that with using 500 mile upgrades? The route I am looking at is YYZ-DFW-PHX-LAS on a weekend, but I doubt I would get the 500 mile upgrade as a gold on the DFW or PHX legs.

Yes, if C is available when you request the miles+copay upgrade for any given leg, it will clear immediately for that leg.

I've recently had a problem with Miles/CoPay clearing. Frequently 3 (of 4 total roundtrip) will clear immediately (as I've checked with ExpertFlyer) and one will need to be waitlisted. The problem is that I sometimes am not on the UG list or others below me clear first. My thinking is that it's much easier for the Gate agent to clear a regular UG vs the a Miles/Copay which has to be reissued. Does that sound logical? Any way to improve the chances?

This is not true, it won't clear immediately. There might be seats available but that doesn't mean AA will upgrade quickly. Remember it goes by status first and granted you are Gold, there might be PLT or PP ahead on the upgrade list. In regards to the DFW = PHX fight, anything is possible but I highly doubt you will get an upgrade. It doesn't hurt to try on the upgrades.

I think you are the one in error - if C is available then upgrades will clear immediately (or at least as soon as you call in). If there were just seats available, but the flight was C0, then your argument would be more correct - but even then it is often the case that C is made available 12-48 hours before a flight, before X is made available and before it goes to gate control.

If you are not EXP and flying a popular route then Miles+ copay is probably the only way to snag an upgrade.

would be interesting to hear back from the OP so he can explain if the correct bucket is available, just on a side note, I look at flights between YYZ - LAS, mid 600 for Y and 1,0xx for FC, not too sure if paying the upgrade fee and miles is a good choice of miles and co-pay.

With a fare difference of ~$350 - $400, if you value the miles @ 1.5cpm, then its probably a wash if there's immediate C availability. However, paying for F outright guarantees you the seat up front and COS bonus.

A miles+copay upgrade, which the OP is seeking to use, books into C and will clear immediately on the sectors that have C available at the time of the upgrade request. For sectors that do not have C available, the traveler can be placed on a waitlist for C space, and *should* clear automatically, prioritized primarily by status of those on the waitlist, once the space becomes available--this automated process can be buggy, resulting in upgrades not clearing even when the space has become available. C can become available at any time--it is up to RM when to release it.

On the other hand, complimentary (for EXP and PRO) and 500-mile upgrades (for PLT and GLD) clear into R (formerly X) by a separate automated process, again prioritized primarily by status but less buggy than the one for C space. R can become available at any time inside of T-100, and pax are cleared into available R space in accordance to their upgrade windows (i.e. if R becomes available at T-72, only EXPs and PROs can clear into it, while PLTs and GLDs have to wait until T-48 and T-24, respectively).

Thanks for the help everyone. I can confirm that the upgrade confirmed instantly on all three legs. I had checked expert flyer and all flights had C availability. I think it helps that the comp upgrades are only starting now, since my flight is this weekend so there is still plenty of space.

I managed to get a cheap q fare about 8 weeks ago so my flight was only $350 RT, and I paid for the base fare with a voucher I got from being bumped off a work travel flight. The $75 copay + 13.5k miles (after 10% rebate) is not bad for my total out of pocket airfare costs.

I think its worth the miles for almost 8 hrs in J rather than in Y. And a good way to start a vegas vacation, lol.

I only upgraded my outbound flights as I have a redeye home and I'll take my chances with sticker upgrades clearing.