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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Oct 13, 18, 11:59 am   -   Wikipost
Please read: This is a community-maintained wiki post containing the most important information from this thread. You may edit the Wiki once you have been on FT for 90 days and have made 90 posts.
 
Last edit by: aztimm
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Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
  • Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
      • Executive Platinum
        • Platinum Pro
          • Platinum
            • Gold
    • Upgrade type
      1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
        • 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
          • 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

      • Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
        • Booking class
          • Time of request"


See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
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Old Jan 18, 18, 1:43 pm
  #46  
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Join Date: May 2013
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JFK-LAX Saturday AM cleared at T48 (comp UPG)
dciolli and thouartgerrard like this.
AANYC1981 is offline  
Old Jan 24, 18, 8:23 am
  #47  
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
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I have an SWU waitlisted on AA81 (LHR-DFW) on 27 Jan. Its not looking particularly good at the moment: J4 R3 D2 I0 W0 P0 Y7 B0 H7 K7 M7 L7 G7 V7 S7 N7 Q7 O7 E7. However, I noticed that the J seat map has had 8 open seats (seven selectable and one blocked) ever since the flight went below J7. I presume this is likely to be a Premium Economy oversell? I clearly should have gone for AA79 instead which has plenty of C class - shame AA does not allow international same day flight changes...
Europeanexplorer is offline  
Old Jan 24, 18, 9:17 am
  #48  
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
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Originally Posted by Europeanexplorer View Post
I have an SWU waitlisted on AA81 (LHR-DFW) on 27 Jan. Its not looking particularly good at the moment: J4 R3 D2 I0 W0 P0 Y7 B0 H7 K7 M7 L7 G7 V7 S7 N7 Q7 O7 E7. However, I noticed that the J seat map has had 8 open seats (seven selectable and one blocked) ever since the flight went below J7. I presume this is likely to be a Premium Economy oversell? I clearly should have gone for AA79 instead which has plenty of C class - shame AA does not allow international same day flight changes...
It could be oversell, it could be people with flights on hold/mileage awards on hold. definitely prefer 79 over 81 - the 77W has nearly twice the number of J seats.

Looking at EF seat map, 79 now is showing 11 open seats in J, but only J5.
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Old Jan 24, 18, 9:54 am
  #49  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: LA
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So far 2/3 cleared when I request this year. Cleared a AUS-LAX leg and just cleared a complimentary DFW-MSY for Friday. Prob not busy routes but doing well so far.
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Old Jan 24, 18, 10:12 am
  #50  
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
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Originally Posted by Antarius View Post
It could be oversell, it could be people with flights on hold/mileage awards on hold. definitely prefer 79 over 81 - the 77W has nearly twice the number of J seats.

Looking at EF seat map, 79 now is showing 11 open seats in J, but only J5.
Yeah - sadly I cannot make my connection in DFW if I take AA79. I think this one is going to go down to the wire - hopefully my EQDs will pull me through.
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Old Jan 24, 18, 10:17 am
  #51  
 
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Originally Posted by Europeanexplorer View Post
Yeah - sadly I cannot make my connection in DFW if I take AA79. I think this one is going to go down to the wire - hopefully my EQDs will pull me through.
Good luck!

I am on ORD-PEK on 1/27.. that is J5 as well, hoping for that to clear.
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Old Jan 24, 18, 11:02 am
  #52  
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
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Originally Posted by Antarius View Post
Good luck!

I am on ORD-PEK on 1/27.. that is J5 as well, hoping for that to clear.
Do you know if the PEK route is low volume? I travel to Korea several times a year and in October, I decided to fly through PEK on the way back (PEK-DFW). My upgrade (miles plus copay) cleared a few days prior to departure but that J class was completely empty. I was in the back cabin of the 788 and I was the only one except for someone who appeared to be one of the FAs mother. I also walked through the entire J cabin to find only 3 people in the front cabin also... That was a huge contrast to the DFW ICN which was completely full
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Old Jan 24, 18, 11:08 am
  #53  
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: STL
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Hey guys pls let me know if this is not the right place to post this. I have a couple general questions about upgrade chances to Hawaii for those of you who may have experienced this

1. Which routes to Big Island Hawaii (KOA) has the best probability of clearing an upgrade? I noticed that DFW- KOA is on a 772 but I'm assuming its a heavy route and with PE. PHX-KOA is on a 757 and I think the LAX-KOA route is a 321, F/Y configuration class.
2. Can you still upgrade directly to F from Y (essentially bypassing W) if you are flying to Hawaii on a 777? Americans wording makes it seem like you can upgrade to premium economy from coach but not from Coach to First.

I'll be traveling at the end of July and I am an EXP

"For now, you can upgrade from Main Cabin or Premium Economy to First or Business using your AAdvantage miles or systemwide upgrades. For flights to / from Hawaii, Executive Platinum and Platinum Pro members receive complimentary upgrades if seats are available. Platinum and Gold members can use 500-mile upgrades."
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Old Jan 24, 18, 11:19 am
  #54  
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: LAX
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Originally Posted by Finsup72 View Post
I like your route choice!
Haha. I get more sleep on LAX-LHR . No, LAX-LHR was a week later
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Old Jan 24, 18, 12:13 pm
  #55  
 
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For expos, I find data points or questions on upgrade success not useful/answerable without knowing $EQD.
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Old Jan 24, 18, 12:15 pm
  #56  
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
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Originally Posted by moonwoo View Post
Do you know if the PEK route is low volume? I travel to Korea several times a year and in October, I decided to fly through PEK on the way back (PEK-DFW). My upgrade (miles plus copay) cleared a few days prior to departure but that J class was completely empty. I was in the back cabin of the 788 and I was the only one except for someone who appeared to be one of the FAs mother. I also walked through the entire J cabin to find only 3 people in the front cabin also... That was a huge contrast to the DFW ICN which was completely full
In my totally anecdotal opinion, PEK, PVG and NRT are much easier to clear upgrades than ICN and HKG. I assume there is enough volume to make them profitable (otherwise AA wouldn't fly to PEK from LAX, DFW and ORD), but seem to find the upgrades much easier to clear.

I think between the fact that there are 3 flights to PEK + tons of capacity from Air China/Eastern/Southern/Hainan, there is less demand for a single flight.
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Old Jan 24, 18, 12:40 pm
  #57  
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
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Originally Posted by beachfan View Post
For expos, I find data points or questions on upgrade success not useful/answerable without knowing $EQD.
Hello. If you were referring to my question, it was just a general question about which routes will have an easier chance to clear. So it would be myself trying to clear upgrades on LAX-KOA, DFW-KOA or PHX-KOA. Since I am the same person regardless of the route, I figured EQD wouldn't be as important, but if it is important to know, I'm at about 14k.

I just wanted to know if it would be easier to clear upgrades on a wide body 777 going from DFW or narrow body from the coast or a narrow body from PHX

Perfect example is what Antarius answered above. NRT/PEK routes are easier to clear than ICN. I do tend to agree with that as well. So on the Hawaii routes, there has to be one specific route that may be less congested and easier to upgrade than another as well.
moonwoo is offline  
Old Jan 24, 18, 12:52 pm
  #58  
 
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I was referring to all the “data points”.

I assume with barely qualifying EQD, a wide body would be best but I don’t know how elite heavy that Phoenix route is.
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Old Jan 24, 18, 1:06 pm
  #59  
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
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Originally Posted by moonwoo View Post
Hello. If you were referring to my question, it was just a general question about which routes will have an easier chance to clear. So it would be myself trying to clear upgrades on LAX-KOA, DFW-KOA or PHX-KOA. Since I am the same person regardless of the route, I figured EQD wouldn't be as important, but if it is important to know, I'm at about 14k.

I just wanted to know if it would be easier to clear upgrades on a wide body 777 going from DFW or narrow body from the coast or a narrow body from PHX

Perfect example is what Antarius answered above. NRT/PEK routes are easier to clear than ICN. I do tend to agree with that as well. So on the Hawaii routes, there has to be one specific route that may be less congested and easier to upgrade than another as well.
The PHX flight is on a ...... LUS 757 with chair seats. IMO, may as well just fly in coach on a widebody than this one.

I did HNL-PHX last year and thoroughly regretted that decision. I would go DFW-KOA.. or DFW-HNL-KOA (if possible, there are 2 DFW-HNL flights)
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Old Jan 24, 18, 1:16 pm
  #60  
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
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Originally Posted by moonwoo View Post
I just wanted to know if it would be easier to clear upgrades on a wide body 777 going from DFW or narrow body from the coast or a narrow body from PHX.
It should be easier to clear upgrades ex-LAX simply due to more flights available, as opposed to a/c type.
ntamayo is offline  

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