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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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Old Feb 9, 2019, 8:39 pm
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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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Old Apr 20, 2016, 3:43 pm
  #496  
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Los Angeles
Programs: UAL, Marriott,
Posts: 23
Thanks, foppishbum & EmailKid. At least getting expert opinion to confirm the low odds is helpful. I think I'll go for the $ upgrade.

-Todd
drtoddchang is offline  
Old Apr 21, 2016, 7:15 am
  #497  
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: NY, US
Programs: UA
Posts: 15
why is there seemingly never any R-class availability?

This might be an answered question already, and perhaps it's just a rant, so apologies where appropriate.

I'm trying to fly to Bangalore this summer. I'd LIKE to fly united, and I'd like to upgrade for the obvious reasons. However, despite BF being completely empty all through the summer - really, empty - there's no R or RN inventory. There was, about a month ago; stupidly, I was too busy thinking about other things so I didn't book.

What is with United here? Are they really going to hold all of the BF inventory hoping someone will pay? Or are miles+$ upgrades so devalued that they really don't want them?

Is there a logic being used to decide whether that inventory is available or not, beyond "no we aren't going to make it available, we'll only ever clear it last minute"?

This isn't the first time, of course. I'm rather down on the whole idea of miles+$ upgrades anymore in the first place, which makes me wonder about the usefulness of accumulating miles at all. (And I still have a presidential-plus card!)
michiflyer is offline  
Old Apr 21, 2016, 7:35 am
  #498  
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: New Jersey
Programs: UA MM 1K, AA MM Gold, Marriott LT Platinum
Posts: 3,236
Originally Posted by michiflyer
This might be an answered question already, and perhaps it's just a rant, so apologies where appropriate.

I'm trying to fly to Bangalore this summer. I'd LIKE to fly united, and I'd like to upgrade for the obvious reasons. However, despite BF being completely empty all through the summer - really, empty - there's no R or RN inventory. There was, about a month ago; stupidly, I was too busy thinking about other things so I didn't book.

What is with United here? Are they really going to hold all of the BF inventory hoping someone will pay? Or are miles+$ upgrades so devalued that they really don't want them?

Is there a logic being used to decide whether that inventory is available or not, beyond "no we aren't going to make it available, we'll only ever clear it last minute"?

This isn't the first time, of course. I'm rather down on the whole idea of miles+$ upgrades anymore in the first place, which makes me wonder about the usefulness of accumulating miles at all. (And I still have a presidential-plus card!)
You'll have to roll the dice and check closer to flight time. I checked May 3rd for example, and there is R availability on the EWR-FRA UA segment.

[IMG][/IMG]
tarheelnj is offline  
Old Apr 21, 2016, 7:36 am
  #499  
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: ORD
Programs: UA Silver, Marriott Platinum/LT Platinum, Hilton Gold
Posts: 5,594
I was looking at flights for ORD-FRA/MUC earlier this week for an August flight and saw R9. Ultimately I found a good P fare to Munich instead.

So, to your earlier question, people do pay. From US-India specifically, which is a frequent route where US companies will pay for business class, it doesn't surprise me that they expect to sell a lot of those seats, many closer in.

I also think your statement about whether miles+$ is worthwhile to United is interesting. I bet they would love to have those $500 copays. But remember, there are a whole lot of 1K's out there who want to use GPU's, so there is a benefit to UA in trying to sell these seats before they open up much R, and give them away for just a GPU.

That said, I think if you keep monitoring, you'll see some R open (and close) over time.
JBord is offline  
Old Apr 21, 2016, 8:15 am
  #500  
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: WAS/ BOM
Programs: UA 1K, Marriott Gold, HHonors Gold
Posts: 1,567
Originally Posted by michiflyer
This might be an answered question already, and perhaps it's just a rant, so apologies where appropriate.

I'm trying to fly to Bangalore this summer. I'd LIKE to fly united, and I'd like to upgrade for the obvious reasons. However, despite BF being completely empty all through the summer - really, empty - there's no R or RN inventory. There was, about a month ago; stupidly, I was too busy thinking about other things so I didn't book.

What is with United here? Are they really going to hold all of the BF inventory hoping someone will pay? Or are miles+$ upgrades so devalued that they really don't want them?

Is there a logic being used to decide whether that inventory is available or not, beyond "no we aren't going to make it available, we'll only ever clear it last minute"?

This isn't the first time, of course. I'm rather down on the whole idea of miles+$ upgrades anymore in the first place, which makes me wonder about the usefulness of accumulating miles at all. (And I still have a presidential-plus card!)
Summer travel is a super busy season. United knows that people will buy paid business seats. If they feel that a particular route won't sell, they will open up the space. Summer travel is always a gamble!
IADFlyer123 is offline  
Old Apr 21, 2016, 11:48 am
  #501  
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: NY, US
Programs: UA
Posts: 15
Originally Posted by JBord
I was looking at flights for ORD-FRA/MUC earlier this week for an August flight and saw R9. Ultimately I found a good P fare to Munich instead.

So, to your earlier question, people do pay. From US-India specifically, which is a frequent route where US companies will pay for business class, it doesn't surprise me that they expect to sell a lot of those seats, many closer in.

I also think your statement about whether miles+$ is worthwhile to United is interesting. I bet they would love to have those $500 copays. But remember, there are a whole lot of 1K's out there who want to use GPU's, so there is a benefit to UA in trying to sell these seats before they open up much R, and give them away for just a GPU.

That said, I think if you keep monitoring, you'll see some R open (and close) over time.
I saw someone earlier in the thread say that the seat maps are never indicative of actual inventory. That surprises me somehow, but I also don't get how so many people book without a seat assignment either (not a judgment, just not how I'd roll) so I'll accept that at face value and stop thinking it's useful. Lo que hay.

My concern would be that the base fare will just keep climbing, so I can sit and wait but I'm guessing I'm better off with the really inexpensive DL Z fare (they're way cheaper vs UA P at the moment for whatever reason, it's not much more than the UA miles+$ fare), and I _really_ don't want to sit 14+ hours in Y overnight, even econo+. Call me a wimp...

Thanks for the 411.
michiflyer is offline  
Old Apr 21, 2016, 3:08 pm
  #502  
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Programs: Star Alliance (Gold) MileagePlus (Premier 1K), Marriott (Gold)
Posts: 5
EWR-NRT

Hi!

I booked 2 tickets for EWR-NRT for Thurs May5th back in mid-March and was waitlisted. I'm Premier1k, bought U-class tickets and as of today this is what's showing: J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN9 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W6 S6 T5 L4 K1 G0 N0 XN1 X0

Thoughts on chances of getting cleared? Should I be looking daily for R's to open?

Thanks much!!
Debs_09 is offline  
Old Apr 21, 2016, 10:14 pm
  #503  
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Programs: UA 1K, Hilton ♦ , Hyatt Carbonado, Wyndham ♦, Marriott PE, "Stinking Bum" elsewhere.
Posts: 5,001
Originally Posted by Debs_09
Hi!

I booked 2 tickets for EWR-NRT for Thurs May5th back in mid-March and was waitlisted. I'm Premier1k, bought U-class tickets and as of today this is what's showing: J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN9 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W6 S6 T5 L4 K1 G0 N0 XN1 X0

Thoughts on chances of getting cleared? Should I be looking daily for R's to open?

Thanks much!!
I fly this route often and haven't missed any upgrades for Wed and Thurs flights in the last couple of years. In addition, the P9 avail. is a good sign.

Good Luck!
zombietooth is offline  
Old Apr 22, 2016, 12:05 am
  #504  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Oct 1999
Posts: 11,468
Originally Posted by zombietooth
I fly this route often and haven't missed any upgrades for Wed and Thurs flights in the last couple of years. In addition, the P9 avail. is a good sign.

Good Luck!
And the PN9 is even a better sign. The fact that they are willing to part with 9 or even 9+ PN-upgrade seats, is a strong indicator for RN/R to open up.
cesco.g is offline  
Old Apr 22, 2016, 11:16 am
  #505  
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Programs: continental united starwood hilton marriott
Posts: 339
what are chances of upgrade

Traveling next week to FRA, in {E+}. On looking at seats many 1st class available for a 60,000 miles and $600.00.
Is their a chance of getting an upgrade at airport for a better priceor any other suggestions. Need 2 seats

Last edited by WineCountryUA; Apr 23, 2016 at 8:09 am Reason: OP has verified on UA flight and in E+
arubalad is offline  
Old Apr 22, 2016, 11:19 am
  #506  
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Houston
Programs: UA GS 2.6MM & Lifetime UC, Qantas Platinum, Hilton Lifetime Diamond, Bonvoy Platinum, HawaiianMiles
Posts: 8,700
Anything's possible, but miles & $$$ is your option unless you have GPUs and W fare or higher.
kirkwoodj is online now  
Old Apr 22, 2016, 12:07 pm
  #507  
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Colorado
Programs: UA Gold 1MM, Marriott Gold
Posts: 1,158
Originally Posted by arubalad
what are chances of upgrade
Complimentary? Somewhere between zero and none.
mrswirl is offline  
Old Apr 22, 2016, 1:01 pm
  #508  
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: ORD
Programs: UA Platinum, IHG Gold, HHonors Diamond, National Executive Elite
Posts: 186
Originally Posted by mrswirl
Complimentary? Somewhere between zero and none.
I managed to snag one ORD -> FRA free upgrade since there were too many infants for the number of bassinets but I was amazed it happened and figure I used my upgrade magic for the next 10 years on that one.
Hite is offline  
Old Apr 22, 2016, 5:19 pm
  #509  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: SFO/SJC
Programs: UA Silver, Marriott Gold, Hilton Gold
Posts: 14,891
Originally Posted by Hite
I managed to snag one ORD -> FRA free upgrade since there were too many infants for the number of bassinets but I was amazed it happened and figure I used my upgrade magic for the next 10 years on that one.
Really? I'm amazed they would upgrade so someone could have a bassinet. While I'm sure convenient for some, it is certainly not a requirement for lap infants. Mine (infant) wouldn't use it anyway. On SQ, we were still in a bassinet area, and I'd guess it was almost not worth it for the dad on the other side of our row, whose baby was not happy they had to be taken out and put back multiple times on SFO-HKG as the seat belt sign kept coming back on and off. On the return, we were one of multiple families who couldn't get a bassinet row.

I mean, good for you. Just surprised it would happen for this reason. Are you sure there wasn't another reason, like Y was oversold.
emcampbe is offline  
Old Apr 22, 2016, 5:23 pm
  #510  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: 4éme
Posts: 12,044
Originally Posted by mrswirl
Complimentary? Somewhere between zero and none.
I have 2 coworkers that recently got OP-UPs on a LH IAD-MUC flight. One got Y-J while the other got Y-PE. Both have no status with any airline and were flying on a UA ticket.
TomMM is offline  


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