kauppias

By October might very well be, it's another thing whether the variants will mutate more making the vaccines obsolete... Here's hoping for happy travels Oct 2021

intuition

Eu claims 70% will be vaccinated end of sept.

First, one can expect this to be overly confident because of unreliable AstraZeneca.
Secondly, even if this succeeds, those 30% are the ages that are most active, like 30-40 year olds. So for travelling the 70% claim is pointless if traveller is in the 30% group.

Unless most of us in here gets shot no1 by may, I think the gloom is valid.
Personally I expect shot no1 in sept, meaning shot no2 by dec.

OH-LGG

Vaccinated with two shots? No way.

And many things will change before October. Thailands own situation is unclear also.

Aurinkomatkat is selling Thailand starting from beginning of December 21. How they will manage quarantine ?

finnishlad

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/ar...r-than-planned

FFlash

I second intuitions pessimistic post. Wishful, forget 2021. Mutations and idiotic entry rules will keep the globe on toes and ”safety safety safety” mood.

fransknorge

That seems realistic.
I am in priority group 2 in Germany (Group 1 was people in nursing home and their carers, group 2 is medical staff + police + extremely vulnerable + > 70, groupe 3 is between 60 and 70, highly vulnerable, then everybody else). I have registered to get my jab more than a week ago and by the best estimate they plan my appointment in May. Meaning they will finish group 2 in June, group 3 is planned to take 3 months, so general population in Fall 2021. For the first shot.

I do not believe this. In summer Sweden closes down, including most of their healthcare. During July-August, they are stories regularly of people dying or having serious complications of treatable issues because the nearest open emergency room with an ambulance is 3 hours away. Doctors, ambulance drivers, nurses take their vacations and the healthcare is completely under-staffed during this 2 months. Considering how Sweden approach COVID and is doing the opposite of the right things (latest being long COVID is a myth that does not exist) and that Tegnell is against the vaccine, I wager they will not reach this goal.
Edit: even better, it turned out, discovered today, that the head vaccine coordinator of Sweden is the CEO of a company planning talk of anti-vaxxers.

WilcoRoger

Supplies seem to pick up - Finland gets now about the same amount a week it used to in a month - IIRC ca. 300k/week without the Janssen ones yet. The infrastructure is to administer the stabs is there (if Krista & co don't .... it up) - roughly speaking by July 70% should be realistic.

intuition

As for sweden, the goal was "before summer" up until recently, the offical material stil says "phase 4" will commence june. This date has slipped due to delivery issues. "Commencing" as in the first ones in 18-59 age group will be invited to schedule their first appointment.

However, one must understand the infrastructure. These datese are calculated by central government based on statistics like influx of vaccine doses, number of vaccinated and unvaccinated in each age group. Central government is very clear that they do not carry the responsibility for the actual vaccinations - this is a "devolved" matter.
Regional health government has multiple issues fulfilling this. For one, health care is strained, with staff working under crisis conditions over an extended period of time. Also, a lot of them are suffering from side effects and/or long covid symptoms from being vaccinated early or contracting the virus early. Finally, contractors have been on contract for the entire Q1 and Q2 based on the initial timetable. With AZ failing to fulfill their contract, they have been idle and contracts are ending.

Even if vaccine doses suddenly start rolling in, there is no one there to actually perform the inocculations, at least over summer.

In sweden 500 000 has had 2 shots, in Finland 90 000 has had 2 shots. If we guess the 30-60 year group are those who fly, I guess we have some 4-5 million in Sweden and 2 million in Finland completely unvaccinated and without a firm date for their first shot. To get this group cleared by sept we need to organise some 7 million inocculations in april-june and then some 7 millions second shot in that same group july-sept.

Is that possible even if 15 million doses arrive on time? Maybe if we just mail the syringes to people and ask them to DIY...

ffay005

Krista is currently sending the vaccines to foreign countries. While our government can't concentrate vaccines to areas most affected they seem to have no problem sending the vaccines out of the country. Wow, just wow.

https://www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/...c-08804ebe3eeb

Courmisch

EC promised 70% of adults by end of June. But, as Intuition pointed out already, this really means 50+y and role-based priority groups (e.g. teachers). And I'm guessing that, to save face, this will be interpreted to actually mean getting the first shot and thus being probably immunised. FWIW, French President promised all adults "proposed a vaccine" by "end of summer", which again means a first shot, and only well after the summer vacation season.

So first, unless you have no kids, and your partner is also 50+ or you are single, then that's no travel for you.
And second, if the destination country requires 2 weeks after second shot, then that's a no go for almost anybody this summer.

It remains to be seen what happens to travel restrictions within EU, and eventually within Europe and across the Atlantic. But AFAICT, Asia is not going to be possible until second half of next year.

WilcoRoger

It's true, it's marginal - 34.000 shots less. That's some 10% of a weekly amount arriving. And not "sending", just taking that much less delivery.

OTOH the BS about logistics issues about re-allocating doses from Kainuu to Vantaa is just mindblowing. Just don't put them on a truck heading to Kainuu after arrival at Vantaa airport - problem solved.

For Finland - we're at 1m today. With 300k/week, in 12 weeks that's 3,6m more, so 70% is realistic. The weekly rate should even go higher as Janssen starts to come in and if AZ can finally get its act together its even more.

ffay005

I see your point, but it's not that simple. Ask Kajaani (36.000 inhabitants) whether they'd like to have every single inhabitant receive one jab or just leave everyone unvaccinated and send the stuff to Croatia...

Vuosaari is 38.000 inhabitants. They'd need those jabs more than anyone.

WilcoRoger

C'mon, a one-off 34k jabs (arithmetically) means that the total vaccination program gets delayed by 16 hours (1/10th of a week). This gov't have already caused orders of magnitude larger damage.

intuition

I think we also need to remember that no one is protected until all are protected. It's a pandemic. If we let it rage somewhere in the world chances are it will mutate enough to make those already vaccinated vulnerable again.

ffay005

I don't disagree with you, yet I find that the message they're sending out here is highly inapproriate and detrimental, and will not contribute to the "let's do this together" spirit that would be needed right now, (defining "together" as "Finns together").