cockpitvisit

Is Tegnell really against the vaccine?? I cannot believe that

zxcv1

Trans-Tasmanian bubble will open on 18-APR-21.

NZ Prime Minister: “This is an important step forward not seen in other parts of the world.”

Let's see how long till this bubble bursts. Would suck to be left stranded and having to face the non-existent availability and also hefty fees for managed isolation upon return.

Covid19-free travel could open in EU too in terms of growing bubbles.

https://simpleflying.com/trans-tasma...ble-announced/

r2d2

Indeed. And for travel to open up, it's not enough that we are vaccinated - also the destination country has to be. As vaccines are distributed quite evenly in the EU, I guess there is high pressure to open intra-EU travel ASAP (I'd guess when the Central European summer holidays start in August), but for long haul travel it's a different story. Probably there will be travel bubbles between countries with both a high vaccination rate and evidence that it has reduced the number of Covid cases to a very low level.

I'd assume many of the Asian countries won't open these travel bubbles as they rely more on keeping the virus out of the country than on vaccinations. This could be especially true with China, who is using their own vaccines that at least for now seem to have a limited efficacy (around 60%) and wouldn't be enough to keep the virus in control. It would be a horror for AY and their Asian strategy, if China would be out of the game.

Post Scriptum

It is also bit about what we decide to accept, i.e., world is not shut down for global influencas. And then what to do if big proportion of population chooses not to be vaccinated?

But AY's strategy is definitely in danger and I doubt mass-tourism from China will recover in few years. Maybe in 5 years after multiple epidemies create endemic partial immunity/resikience for most people.

If world is kept shut "until covid is gone" that will never happen as long as testing continues and we must prepare ourselves to new economy. I don't like the prospects of i.e. Finnish&swedish engineering consulting companies as inshore-resources and partners will likely be prioritized contra offshore ones (for a Chilean mine, AFRY is a offshore resource)

intuition

Just checking if we are looking at the same numbers.
1 million refers to number of doses, right? ('Our world in data' has it down to 1 063 590 by april 4)
Do note that this boils down to only 90 000 individuals fully vaccinated!




Yes, this is the other big problem, likely to persist 2021 and beyond.

WilcoRoger

Correct.

1st dose already gives considerable protection at least against serious symptoms and against being hospitalized. That's already good enough (IMO), as it puts covid19 back to the "unpleasant flu" category. There are a great many vaccinations against other illnesses that provide protection with the first jab, though follow up jabs are required for full protection.

intuition

Didn't the trans-tasman bubble open and closed already once before?
Anyway, I think this indicates it will take even longer for europeans to get access to Australasia.



I think there are multiple issues. Just sheer size (area and population) makes vaccination slow. Also the large cultural distance between city- and agrarian-life. And it wouldn't be a stretch to imagine that some political levels prefer leaving some people unvaccinated.
As for China outbound tourism, it will also be hampered by lack of reciprocity. Perhaps they won't normalize "border control" before they run out of disk space in the peoples archive...

intuition

Absolutely! Medically, prioritizing one shot is a no-brainer.

It was looking at the entry requirements for Thailand, posted upstream that made me worry about future travel. If the world will "open up" by requiring 2 shots, fresh test, paperwork, yada yada yada, we are still stuck here for a while.

finnishlad

I'm in UK and we aren't allowed to travel for holiday until 17.May. Then you need covid test to fly with Finnair with or without vaccination proof and they're expensive. That's my biggest worry.
I will fly to Bangkok in autumn. Luckily I will get my 2nd jab next month, but still need certificate of entry, covid test and covid insurance.

ffay005

I believe the 2nd shot cannot be taken more than 6 months ago, so be sure to plan accordingly. Of course, this rule might be amended. But May + 6 months = November, so that should work!

finnishlad

Rule has been amended already. Only that 2 weeks from 2nd vaccine.

intuition

In other news...
It seems EU and a number of member states have issued updated prognosis today. EU claims target (I assume the 70% level) will be reached much earlier that previously said. Now by end of june.

All is based on updated delivery reports. Sweden, for example, says it will see rapidly increasing deliveries, reaching 1 million doses a week by june 1. Some even says 75% of age group 18-59 will recieve 2 doses before end of july. Still not a believer that the inocculation infrastructure is enough, but we'll see.

zxcv1

In October 2020, Australia began allowing New Zealanders to fly to certain airports. Subject to certain criteria, they could skip the otherwise mandatory two-week quarantine. To date, New Zealand has not returned the favour.

What a gold rush this bubble has turned out to be for local operators: Qantas alone has bounced from 3% of its normal trans-Tasman capacity back to 83% with the potential for further increases. When the bubble begins, the number of weekly flights between Australia and New Zealand will rise from the single digits to the hundreds. Amid the high-fiving between the local operators rushing to unwrap planes, this is the single best news for the aviation industry has had in a long time. The incompetent Sanna and her friends could do well to learn from the Jacinda Ardern government, and now good things happen as a result of exemplary handling of covid19. Let's hope the pundits are wrong this time.

intuition

Theee even was an announcement for direct flights from HBA, making it earn its 'internatiinal' moniker again!

Too bad this will be an internal affair for the forseeable future.

Also, Ardern warned AU state governments they need to pull their act together. There is potential on the AU side to blow things up.
LEts hope it survives anzac day at least

Steve_Hun

In my opinion you are looking at the "let's do this together" approach from an incorrect angle. The together in this case should definitely mean the whole of the EU, as it has been from the start with the vaccine procurement. (that is something you can agree with or criticise, but I believe it makes sense, even with all the mistakes done during the process) The whole point of that, if the wealthier member states would have bought up all the vaccines, leaving the smaller/poorer ones behind, that could have meant a total chaos on an EU level. IMHO you should be looking at the EU from a vaccination/pandemic POV as one country, especially the Schengen area. Without getting to the properly low level of infection throughout the Union, there is no real reopening.

Finland, in solidarity with Croatia (was it?) has offered to provide them with extra doses of the vaccines, to help fight the higher level of infection over there. As Wilco has pointed out, in the big scheme, the number of vaccines offered is not game changer, but it still shows some level of solidarity. Even HU, where the situation is LOT worse than in FI, as they have had the highest in the world death per million or 100K capita (not sure which) for the last few weeks have offered vaccines to the Czech Republic.

Keep it in mind, that you and I getting vaccinated will not get rid off the travel restrictions within the EU, we all need to reach a proper level first.