Duke787

Looks like DL has put out its first travel waiver related to the coronavirus allowing rebooking of flights touching PEK/PVG that are scheduled through 1/31. Have a trip to AP at the end of February so personally will continue to monitor closely and I'm sure many others on this board have travel to China in the next few weeks

https://www.delta.com/us/en/advisori...ation-in-china

MSPeconomist

I'm surprised that connections on the same ticket/PNR to/from elsewhere in mainland China (plus maybe HKG) aren't included. Of course the KE ICN-WUH flight is obviously suspended. While most MU flights would go through Beijing or Shanghai (although not necessarily PEK and PVG), a lot of CZ traffic is routed through CAN.

PurdueFlyer

I too am monitoring closely for a mid-Feb trip ... 9-night cruise departing SIN and arriving HKG (stops in BKK and 3 Vietnam ports on the way). The DL connections are via ICN both ways, so this isn't applicable right now based on dates and routing in the waiver. I don't think I'd try and cancel the flights unless the whole cruise gets cancelled, too, which IMO isn't likely. But it will be interesting to see how various nations react (or over-react) over the next few weeks.

ethernal

I agree.. seems unusual but then again those are instances where Delta is probably just the marketing carrier and they may want to clear it with their partners first - and/or not deal with the fallout of it (either financial for them or retaliation from the partners).

Within reason, I think it is hard to over-react when it comes to public health crises... I am not worried about this virus because I trust countries to take the necessary actions to stop a crisis. If you read through my post history you will see I am probably one of the most pro-individual liberty persons you'll find and hate the security state that surrounds travel today, but one area where I fully support extraordinary power and changes is when true public health threats emerge. Statistically, an uncontrollable epidemics is probably the single most likely event to cause a significant "global meltdown" so to speak. Things like terrorism are inherently isolated events; viruses quite literally spread like a virus.

While not as deadly as a virus like SARS or MERS was, if it has a high enough natural R0 rate then it should be taken very, very seriously. Even if the fatality rate is only 2%, widespread infection globally would mean death potential in the order of 100 million people globally. It is hard in early stages of incidents like these to know the details, so over-reaction is not inherently a bad thing. So far, I don't think any country has created unnecessary hysteria on this topic. The quarantining of entire cities seems drastic, but I would hope that the US would do a similar thing in the event of a serious public health risk. In my opinion, this is one instance where the greater good does actually supersede the rights of any one individual.

To that extent, I am glad that Delta issued the waiver - and hopefully we will see an expanded waiver shortly.

doc4science

I am closely monitoring, as of now have a trip to Beijing and Xi'an early March. Well what happens over the next few months. Hoping for the best.

exwannabe

Ethernal, from the numbers I have seen there have been a few dozen cases outside of China reported and all of those were people who had come from China (and almost all Whuan). So of those cases, not a single forward transmission. I would assume the R0 is well under 1 outside of the super dense areas.

I do have to agree that it is sad but true that China is better able to deal with this than most all countries. Poor countries do not have the ability and most wealthy countries would not have the *** to do what is right until too late. Yeah, for minor outbreaks in low density areas a county like the US can handle it, but would we have the guts to clamp down on NYC if need be?

TechMarauder

I was in PVG for the past few days and HKG now. Other than almost everyone wearing a mask and the preparations for CNY, there doesn’t seem to be much difference. There are more temperature sensor checks but that was usual in places like HKG anyway.

Of course, it’s a different situation in WUH

phatcow

I posted about the possibility of a waiver a few days ago in another thread but it wasn’t active yet. Looks like finally got to posting

I just got off the phone with an agent, and there are some weird stipulations on the waiver that they see internally.

Seems like they are UNABLE to use KE as an alternate carrier, even for the short hop to ICN journey to connect to a DL TP flight.

So in my case they cannot change the ticket from HKG-PVG-LAX to HKG-ICN-LAX (Not that i would for a variety of reasons, but that option wasn’t there )

Halloweverybody

of the two studies published by universities. Current R0 is estimated to be 2.6 (low 1.5 high 3.5)

of course there are lots of assumptions bc China is drastically censoring information.

Study

Justin026

Appreciate the fresh views of the situation, always a feature on FT. And also as always, we have to scramble to keep up with our abbreviations. RO now researched and understood!

MSPeconomist

An alternative if you want to avoid mainland China might be to fly to HND/NRT and connect to the USA through Tokyo, but since no DL partners fly HKG-HND/NRT nonstop, you might need to purchase a separate ticket. [HKG-TPE-HND/NRT on China Airlines would waste a lot of time, and connecting on something like Garuda of Vietnam Airlines would be worse.]

It's not a close partner, but you might be about to get DL to rebook you onto a China Airlines (based in Taiwan) flight from HKG to Taipei and then Taipei back to the USA, probably through LAX as I don't think they operate many TPAC flights. Since your destination is apparently LAX, this part should be easy. DL should be willing to give you ORC, so being rebooked onto a Tier N level alliance partner shouldn't matter much.

CarmenOM

Count me among those who have searched further and learned more after reading this thread.

That R0 is comparable to the estimated R0 range of 1.4-2.8 for the 1918 swine flu pandemic, a sobering thought. Of course, there are more and better resources for combatting the disease now than there were 100 years ago.

WillBarrett_68

if this isn't over by March then we're talking global pandemic.

kale73

May be time to re-read The Stand.

FBplatinum

I am right now in China, it is incredible how much "calm" is.
Normally big mall are very busy.
Last day doing small shopping in the mall, we are near alone (except employers). not wait at the place to weight vegetables/fruits stations and also no wait at the cash.
When I flight 2 day ago from PVG to ZYI the lounge is near empty (I will say less than 10/15 guests).
And at arrival it is medical staff taking temperature of all passengers.
Curious how it will be in the next few days.
I take train to Hong Kong next Tuesday and flight HKG to PVG the 30 (and PVG-LAX the same day)