Rapid Rewards devaluation coming April 17, 2015
Apr 9, 2015, 4:07 pm
#361
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: LAS-DEN
Programs: WN CP & B-list. Disillusioned fmr UA-1P/2P,F9-Ascent; Fmr AA-Plat,CO-Gold,NW-Silver,TWA-Elite
Posts: 1,630
This sucks, but if SWA changes it too much, the whole system is going to collapse.
However the changes come down on April 17, come May 14, the next schedule extension, I am going to be pricing tickets around Christmas. If these are significantly more than 70 points/$1, I'm going to be really mad. I will probably fly with SWA anyway, as their cash price tends to be less (with bag fees) than other carriers on my route (Frontier, United). I will probably fly with them because I have companion pass, so no other airline can compete with them at half price (generally).
If it is more than 100 points/$1, I will terminate all spending on my SWA VISA card because I might as well spend on Discover and get 1% cash back bonus.
I already balance my spending between the two cards to take advantage of when Discover is offering 3% and 5% cash back specials.
I will then continue to seek opportunities to use my SWA points at *reasonable* rates. Next comes spring break, a high demand time. If redemption rates are poor, that will be the end of my SWA VISA card. Cancelled because I can't know that I am getting 1%, so better cash in the hand with Discover than an unknown with Chase/SWA.
Let the companion pass expire and burn off the remaining miles as best I can. Loyalty went out the window a long time ago. I have only been loyal to SWA because its been the best deal. But ... next flight ... it could be with anybody.
Bad move.
However the changes come down on April 17, come May 14, the next schedule extension, I am going to be pricing tickets around Christmas. If these are significantly more than 70 points/$1, I'm going to be really mad. I will probably fly with SWA anyway, as their cash price tends to be less (with bag fees) than other carriers on my route (Frontier, United). I will probably fly with them because I have companion pass, so no other airline can compete with them at half price (generally).
If it is more than 100 points/$1, I will terminate all spending on my SWA VISA card because I might as well spend on Discover and get 1% cash back bonus.
I already balance my spending between the two cards to take advantage of when Discover is offering 3% and 5% cash back specials.
I will then continue to seek opportunities to use my SWA points at *reasonable* rates. Next comes spring break, a high demand time. If redemption rates are poor, that will be the end of my SWA VISA card. Cancelled because I can't know that I am getting 1%, so better cash in the hand with Discover than an unknown with Chase/SWA.
Let the companion pass expire and burn off the remaining miles as best I can. Loyalty went out the window a long time ago. I have only been loyal to SWA because its been the best deal. But ... next flight ... it could be with anybody.
Bad move.
Apr 9, 2015, 4:39 pm
#362
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: ORD, MDW or MKE
Programs: American and Southwest. Hilton and Marriott hotels primarily.
Posts: 6,462
This is why I love FT.
I would never know about this and would probably not notice. That is what the bean counters at Southwest are counting on. They are the masters of obfuscation in their pricing.
Unfortunately, reward redemptions just don't count in my calculus of who has the best price for where I want to go. Southwest's no cancellation fee is worth enough that I cannot punish this devaluation by switching airlines.
I would never know about this and would probably not notice. That is what the bean counters at Southwest are counting on. They are the masters of obfuscation in their pricing.
Unfortunately, reward redemptions just don't count in my calculus of who has the best price for where I want to go. Southwest's no cancellation fee is worth enough that I cannot punish this devaluation by switching airlines.
Apr 9, 2015, 4:56 pm
#363
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,832
All airlines are getting worse and basically the whole experience sucks these days. You've just got find the airline, based upon where you live, FF perks, and schedule, that sucks the least.
Apr 9, 2015, 5:00 pm
#364
Used to be 'Travelergcp'
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: New Orleans
Programs: AA Plat, Marriott Gold, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 2,826
The real value proposition is in the CP if you're a party of 2. Pretty hard to beat 50% off all the time, even on sale fares or points. If that goes away I will really start complaining.
Apr 9, 2015, 5:37 pm
#366
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 6,607
Add in that you can easily acquire CP for nearly 2 years without ever paying for a flight
Apr 9, 2015, 8:17 pm
#367
Join Date: Jul 2002
Posts: 3,643
BA Avios continue to look better and better. Like RR 2.0, they are distance based, can be used to book North American flights on AA, AS and US. From personal experience, they are a great deal for destinations like Hawaii and Mexico from the West Coast, Mexico and the Caribbean from the East Coast. We have also found Avios cash + points options to offer excellent redemption value for flights within Europe - very competitive with budget carriers but without the significant downgrade in service, nickel and diming.
Yes - Avios capacity is limited, requires some advance planning, tools like Expert Flyer for availability alerts, but it offers some of the best redemption values for AMEX MRs and Chase URs, or those interested in getting the BA Card from Chase. Cancellation policies are also quite generous, primary hassle is having to call BA to book AS awards, as they are not currently shown on the BA website.
Yes - Avios capacity is limited, requires some advance planning, tools like Expert Flyer for availability alerts, but it offers some of the best redemption values for AMEX MRs and Chase URs, or those interested in getting the BA Card from Chase. Cancellation policies are also quite generous, primary hassle is having to call BA to book AS awards, as they are not currently shown on the BA website.
I appreciate this 'heads up", as I will now try to go ahead and commit to a weekend trip and use Southwest points now rather than wait.
Apr 9, 2015, 8:18 pm
#368
Moderator: Southwest Airlines, Capital One
Join Date: Sep 1999
Location: California
Programs: WN Companion Pass, A-list preferred, Hyatt Globalist; United Club Lietime (sic) Member
Posts: 21,625
Apr 9, 2015, 9:38 pm
#370
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: PHL
Programs: AAdvantage Platinum, Hilton HHonors Diamond
Posts: 1,203
I value AA miles more than WN at 70-1. Considering it is about to get worse, I'll value those AA miles even more.
Apr 10, 2015, 12:39 am
#371
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: SEA
Programs: HH Silver
Posts: 2,400
Apr 10, 2015, 3:59 pm
#372
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: LAS-DEN
Programs: WN CP & B-list. Disillusioned fmr UA-1P/2P,F9-Ascent; Fmr AA-Plat,CO-Gold,NW-Silver,TWA-Elite
Posts: 1,630
Good idea. For example, I just booked PHL-AMS for 36,000 AAdvantage miles. Currently, if that were WN points that would be worth $514 in base fare for WN. There's no way you'd get to Europe for $514 on any airline. I'm glad I moved all of my spending to AA cards, including a citi card that included 1,000 bonus miles per $1,000 spent. I was effectively getting 7-8% cash back if redeemed at those rates (cash rate was $1450), probably way higher if those were redeemed for international business or first class. Even without that citi bonus, that means 3-5% easily. Of course, I realize regular 25,000 domestic trips won't end up being great when you calculate the AA miles value, these aren't normal circumstances, but they work in my favor!
I value AA miles more than WN at 70-1. Considering it is about to get worse, I'll value those AA miles even more.
I value AA miles more than WN at 70-1. Considering it is about to get worse, I'll value those AA miles even more.
As you said, if you are mostly flying domestic, then it doesn't favor AA. If you have to spend $13,000 to get 13,000 miles and 13,000 bonus miles (effectively 2 miles per $1), there is a lot of the time that will get you one domestic one-way on AA. $13k of spend on the SWA VISA will (at least at the moment) give you almost every possible one-way flight if you book on the WGA fare. Even if the points for a particular flight are going up on SWA, it still seems like $1 of spend gets you further on SWA than on AA, domestically.
So I think it depends what you need and want your miles for. I use mine primarily to fly my wife and daughter with me on vacations. I'll use miles for myself when I have enough. That is mostly domestic. I also have CP for this year, so it is in effect buy two (with points or cash) and get one free. That balance still favors SWA.
However, if we start to see a different experience ... too many points to get from here to there, I will have to look at other options. But, with AA, UA and F9, the problem is that they will charge you bag fees, change fees, etc. so when I add that in, even a bit higher point redemption is still going to favor SWA.
Any devaluation sucks ... and it would seem that we are in for more devaluations, both on April 17 and at some point in the future. After we see how bad this is, I will adjust to optimize for whichever airline gives the best deal.
Apr 10, 2015, 6:06 pm
#373
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 6,607
I used to live in CT. I am meeting about 20 people from CT in Florida this week.
In the past they all flew, this year they were telling me gas and tolls would be about $125 each way for a family of 4 vs $1600 to fly plus a rental car.
Any airline increasing prices right now is playing a risky game as if people are willing to drive 1200 miles I'm sure others with shorter trips will also consider driving.
In the past they all flew, this year they were telling me gas and tolls would be about $125 each way for a family of 4 vs $1600 to fly plus a rental car.
Any airline increasing prices right now is playing a risky game as if people are willing to drive 1200 miles I'm sure others with shorter trips will also consider driving.
Apr 10, 2015, 8:33 pm
#374
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: ORD, MDW or MKE
Programs: American and Southwest. Hilton and Marriott hotels primarily.
Posts: 6,462
I am not necessarily saying that it would be cheaper for them to fly, but their calculus of how much it costs to drive isn't even close. Maintenance and depreciation on the car are hidden, but real costs. You cannot drive a car for much less than 40 cents a mile and it is probably closer to 50 cents, depending on how long you keep the car.
That said your point is correct that people perceive driving to be much less expensive than it really is and this should be a limit on how much airlines can charge.
That said your point is correct that people perceive driving to be much less expensive than it really is and this should be a limit on how much airlines can charge.
Apr 10, 2015, 8:42 pm
#375
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: BDL, JFK
Posts: 658
I am not necessarily saying that it would be cheaper for them to fly, but their calculus of how much it costs to drive isn't even close. Maintenance and depreciation on the car are hidden, but real costs. You cannot drive a car for much less than 40 cents a mile and it is probably closer to 50 cents, depending on how long you keep the car.
That said your point is correct that people perceive driving to be much less expensive than it really is and this should be a limit on how much airlines can charge.
That said your point is correct that people perceive driving to be much less expensive than it really is and this should be a limit on how much airlines can charge.