wetrat0

I think there's a clear problem from WN's perspective, not necessarily with the number of points that they're giving out, but that a very high % of WN points get redeemed, because they're "too easy" to redeem.

Consider for example Delta's program, which has revenue based earn as well, but has redemptions that require a completely arbitrary large number of miles with really tight capacity controls. While business travelers (especially the valuable high-spend ones) are going to be able to save up enough miles for an award ticket, occasional leisure travelers are just not going to save up 25,000 miles for a domestic award in a reasonable timeframe (and if they do, they'll find out that the flight they want actually requires 40,000 miles or just isn't available). On the other hand, you can redeem RR points in almost any quantity. Moreover, on the legacies, the awards that are really valuable are international J/F, which requires "hoarding" points for that special occasion, whereas on WN, because the points have fixed value, there's no incentive to accumulate a large pile of points. In fact it's the other way around: spend them as quickly as you can before they lose value.

As an example: I recently redeemed about 4,000 RR points for a cheap one-way. On the other hand, I have about 4,000 United miles that I'm literally never going to use, because they'll expire before the next time that I fly United, and the only thing I can redeem 4,000 miles for is a magazine subscription.

FindAWay

Many FTers simply use UA RN dining, the shopping portal, the Chase UA MPE CC, a transfer of points from UR or Points.com, etc. to extend expiration for UA and similar programs. For example, I haven't flown a paid ticket on US Airways in close to a decade, but, I still have 100k+ unexpired miles.

However, I agree with your point that Rapid Rewards disincentives hoarding miles for a "big" redemption...in furtherance of your point, because RR redemptions are based on the Base Fare (exclusive of most taxes/fees), one actually achieves a higher value per point by redeeming for the lowest fares. In contrast, some people may aim for a "premium" award for 100k+ on other carriers and "hoard" miles until then.

wetrat0

Most people are not FTers, and even this FTer does not think it's worth expending effort trying to extend the expiration of a few thousand miles on a carrier that I have flown once ever, because I needed to go to SFO and didn't want to connect. So, the point is that miles on United/Delta/AA/US are much more likely to either expire without being used, or as you say, be hoarded in excess of 100K miles. Time is money (even without devaluation), so the longer you hold the miles, the better it is for them. I would never dream of holding 100K RR points in my account... what would be the purpose? It matters not whether I save them to redeem for 1 big award, or just spend them bit by bit as I acquire them.

FindAWay

I agree: Most people are not FTers (I was merely pointing something out that you may find helpful to avoid letting miles expire).

To each their own - if you want to let your miles expire, it is your choice. However, many here have earned and redeemed miles in (non-WN) programs that they've never flown (BA Avios is probably a common one for many who want inexpensive redemptions on AA or AS short-haul metal). So, I don't understand your continued reference to how many times you've flown UA - one can earn UA miles and use them to fly AC, TK, TG, SQ, LH, LX, OS, etc. And, if you spent 30 seconds going through a UA shopping portal to avoid letting the miles expire, you'd be that many miles closer if you decided to get a UA MPE or transfer miles to UA in the future to fly an award flight on a non-UA *A carrier.


You're really getting at opportunity cost, with which I agree is another valid argument against hoarding miles/points (especially WN RR points). However, many here have over 100k WN RR points simply because of large dumps of points for CP qualification.

texashoser

Speaking about hoarding points, here's another data point. I currently have about 200,000, but the balance is usually around 75,000. Typically these points are used for family flights costing around a total of 75,000 per trip, but I sometimes buy tickets for friends. Sometimes the points just add up faster than I can use them at a given time, otherwise, I'm not hoarding them. I realize the points could get devalued at any time given some warning, but that's not incentive enough for me to burn them on some trip I otherwise wouldn't take.

flyer4512

Exactly, I never let points expire as it so easy to keep them.

wetrat0

I guess I'd better go get to work on the UA shopping portal to keep up my FT cred up . Still, there is an opportunity cost to crediting miles to a program you never fly--- you could have credited those miles elsewhere. In my case, I have balances that are worth maintaining at US/AA and DL. So if I really cared to maximize my awards, I would have to do some serious optimization to decide which shopping portal/dining program/credit card to use for each purchase. UA is just a low priority for me, which is why I used it as an example. And the main point still stands: most occasional travelers are not checking very carefully on their mile expiration, and would probably let 4,000 points lapse, whereas WN makes it easy to redeem for a cheap flight. Ergo, one of WN's problems is that their points are more likely to be redeemed, and quickly.

genotonda

I thought I read it as partner redemptions were not changing. Only flights actually on BA (and Iberia). Is this not the case?

flyer4512

Just an FYI since you mentioned Delta miles a couple times now............DL miles never expire.

My leftover UA miles are from card churning..............the 8K UA I have in my account will soon be 60K thanks to the UA business card.

Chances are I have some miles leftover again and save them for the next card and so on.............

If you know for certain that you will never pay for a UA flight or get a UA credit card again then get magazines or just let them go

nsx

From http://www.britishairways.com/en-gb/...partnerflights

GUWonder

Using miles from many a non-US airline program has been a way around the "late booking" fees beloved by US airlines.

DL migrated away from a late booking fees and eventually toward a huge "late booking" mileage penalty. That has now put an end to the ability to use non-US programs to get around DL's "late booking" penalties.

It will be interesting to see how DL and WN's programs converge, if they converge at all.

Patrickthetiger

I may be wrong, but I'm pretty sure Southwest just launched a new Destination Finder? The new finder displays the estimated RR points needed to book a RT reward flight and allows you to save an aspirational reward flight that you can track within your RR account page.

I figure that that the estimated values on this page will update (increase) on 4/17/15. If you make a note of the current levels, we will be able to get a ballpark estimate of how much RR redemptions will increase, on average. Am I wrong? Or has this function always existed on SW's website and I just never noticed it until today?

Link: New Destination Finder?

EDIT: Ugh... after a little research, its definitely NOT new (I don't think) However, I still think it will be the fastest way to gauge the impact of the devaluation.

luckypierre

I would assume this webpage will be deleted shortly. Unless I misunderstand the whole idea of dynamic pricing being pursued by DL and WN, isn't the notion of "aspirational accumulation" of miles/points a casualty of the process? No longer will a traveler strive towards some award goal-Hawaii, visiting the kids, etc since there is no fixed goal. And since there is no fixed goal, it is to the airlines' advantage to make the award amounts as opaque as possible. Thus, DL removes completely its award charts and presumably WN will follow with this tool (although it may linger on as a not very helpful/truthful guide).

rsteinmetz70112

My take on the Destination Finder is it displays current information about a 30-90 day future window. I find there are often fares available at much lower points totals. I'm not sure the new calculations will change much in how it works.

toomanybooks

Thanks for your AA evaluation. One of these days I will learn enough accounting to tear apart WN's filings with the SEC and discern as much as possible. I have an accountant friend and beer-buddy. Maybe I will print everything out and sit with him for a couple hours and have him help me.

I seem to recall that we had a thread when 2.0 started and concluded pretty quickly that cash-like points were going to bite WN.

One thing they may be thinking is that people redeeming points will bring along family members and pay for their tickets with cash, making the points sort of a loss-leader like milk in a grocery store. If so, bad presumption. I cannot even imagine how many UR and Marriott points are out there, ready to become WN, much less the WN points.

I am not quite in the same boat ex-MDW, but I don't like flying at 5:50 am and availability during the day is usually terrible, so it's almost as bad. If your 1.5s ex-ISP are mostly good for FL and not worth much to you, maybe you could donate them to a charity and help them book flights. Perhaps "Give Kids the World," or "Make-A-Wish" for an MCO trip.

Not tax-deductible, but still feel-good.