Rapid Rewards devaluation coming April 17, 2015
Apr 10, 2015, 9:28 pm
#376
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 6,607
I am not necessarily saying that it would be cheaper for them to fly, but their calculus of how much it costs to drive isn't even close. Maintenance and depreciation on the car are hidden, but real costs. You cannot drive a car for much less than 40 cents a mile and it is probably closer to 50 cents, depending on how long you keep the car.
That said your point is correct that people perceive driving to be much less expensive than it really is and this should be a limit on how much airlines can charge.
That said your point is correct that people perceive driving to be much less expensive than it really is and this should be a limit on how much airlines can charge.
Even using 40 cents a mile (2400 miles $960) it's still cheaper than flying for 4 people BEFORE you factor in the rental car which they will need for a week from once they arrive. A full size rental ( big enough for 4 people plus bags) in prime season in Florida can easily run $400 with all the crazy taxes and airport fees they charge.
They also live an hour from the airport in CT or NY so if you fly you have to add those miles @ 40 cents a mile and of course airport parking for a week which even offsite is $100 in CT or NY.
You are correct in that most people only see the gas and toll expenses when in reality the cost is more but I think even 40 cents a mile is high at the current gas prices.
Personally I would never drive but then again I haven't paid for a flight in 10 years.
Last edited by flyer4512; Apr 10, 2015 at 9:45 pm
Apr 10, 2015, 10:09 pm
#377
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: PHL
Programs: AAdvantage Platinum, Hilton HHonors Diamond
Posts: 1,203
As you said, if you are mostly flying domestic, then it doesn't favor AA. If you have to spend $13,000 to get 13,000 miles and 13,000 bonus miles (effectively 2 miles per $1), there is a lot of the time that will get you one domestic one-way on AA. $13k of spend on the SWA VISA will (at least at the moment) give you almost every possible one-way flight if you book on the WGA fare. Even if the points for a particular flight are going up on SWA, it still seems like $1 of spend gets you further on SWA than on AA, domestically.
So I think it depends what you need and want your miles for. I use mine primarily to fly my wife and daughter with me on vacations. I'll use miles for myself when I have enough. That is mostly domestic. I also have CP for this year, so it is in effect buy two (with points or cash) and get one free. That balance still favors SWA.
However, if we start to see a different experience ... too many points to get from here to there, I will have to look at other options. But, with AA, UA and F9, the problem is that they will charge you bag fees, change fees, etc. so when I add that in, even a bit higher point redemption is still going to favor SWA.
Any devaluation sucks ... and it would seem that we are in for more devaluations, both on April 17 and at some point in the future. After we see how bad this is, I will adjust to optimize for whichever airline gives the best deal.
So I think it depends what you need and want your miles for. I use mine primarily to fly my wife and daughter with me on vacations. I'll use miles for myself when I have enough. That is mostly domestic. I also have CP for this year, so it is in effect buy two (with points or cash) and get one free. That balance still favors SWA.
However, if we start to see a different experience ... too many points to get from here to there, I will have to look at other options. But, with AA, UA and F9, the problem is that they will charge you bag fees, change fees, etc. so when I add that in, even a bit higher point redemption is still going to favor SWA.
Any devaluation sucks ... and it would seem that we are in for more devaluations, both on April 17 and at some point in the future. After we see how bad this is, I will adjust to optimize for whichever airline gives the best deal.
Apr 11, 2015, 12:41 am
#378
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: SEA
Programs: HH Silver
Posts: 2,400
No, one way. I thought you were referring to the 17,500/one way points.
Apr 11, 2015, 9:25 am
#379
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 3,975
Round trip? If so, wow
Apr 11, 2015, 11:56 am
#380
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: PHL
Programs: AAdvantage Platinum, Hilton HHonors Diamond
Posts: 1,203
Interesting that you say "wow," since WOW Air www.wowair.us shows $207 one-way BWI-Berlin SXF.
Apr 11, 2015, 2:26 pm
#381
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Houston (HOU/IAH)
Programs: WN, UA, DL, AA, Chase UR, Amex MR
Posts: 2,269
Interesting that you say "wow," since WOW Air www.wowair.us shows $207 one-way BWI-Berlin SXF.
Apr 11, 2015, 3:05 pm
#382
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: San Diego, Ca
Programs: AA 2MM LT PLT; AS MVP Gold75k; HHonors Diamond; IHG PLT
Posts: 3,502
From a practical perspective, WN has been devaluing award redemptions for some time. We are considering a leisure trip SAN-LAS for a long weekend in early October, using RR points. AT fare is approximately 20k points, WGA fares during the week start at less than 5k, most midday flight are over 7k. For a Sunday return, WGA fares for some reasonable departure times have already disappeared, those remaining are on the order of 10k.
Again using my earlier Avios reference, I can go from SAN to MRY, SJD on AS, PHX to US for less than 5k Avios on the SAME DATES.
From a practical perspective, this is the only leisure route I would consider using WN, as all other options can be booked using awards on full service carriers. Despite what some may claim, we are typically successful finding award redemptions to desired destinations, timing.
IS WN SUGGESTING THIS WILL GET WORSE AFTER APRIL 17???
Again using my earlier Avios reference, I can go from SAN to MRY, SJD on AS, PHX to US for less than 5k Avios on the SAME DATES.
From a practical perspective, this is the only leisure route I would consider using WN, as all other options can be booked using awards on full service carriers. Despite what some may claim, we are typically successful finding award redemptions to desired destinations, timing.
IS WN SUGGESTING THIS WILL GET WORSE AFTER APRIL 17???
Apr 12, 2015, 4:03 pm
#383
Join Date: Oct 2001
Programs: LTP, PP
Posts: 8,700
From a practical perspective, WN has been devaluing award redemptions for some time. We are considering a leisure trip SAN-LAS for a long weekend in early October, using RR points. AT fare is approximately 20k points, WGA fares during the week start at less than 5k, most midday flight are over 7k. For a Sunday return, WGA fares for some reasonable departure times have already disappeared, those remaining are on the order of 10k.
Again using my earlier Avios reference, I can go from SAN to MRY, SJD on AS, PHX to US for less than 5k Avios on the SAME DATES.
From a practical perspective, this is the only leisure route I would consider using WN, as all other options can be booked using awards on full service carriers. Despite what some may claim, we are typically successful finding award redemptions to desired destinations, timing.
IS WN SUGGESTING THIS WILL GET WORSE AFTER APRIL 17???
Again using my earlier Avios reference, I can go from SAN to MRY, SJD on AS, PHX to US for less than 5k Avios on the SAME DATES.
From a practical perspective, this is the only leisure route I would consider using WN, as all other options can be booked using awards on full service carriers. Despite what some may claim, we are typically successful finding award redemptions to desired destinations, timing.
IS WN SUGGESTING THIS WILL GET WORSE AFTER APRIL 17???
Apr 13, 2015, 8:33 am
#385
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Chicagoland, IL, USA
Programs: WN CP, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 14,192
Apr 15, 2015, 10:50 am
#387
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 6,286
I upload the pics to tinypic.com (it's free), and then copy and paste the links here as images.
Apr 15, 2015, 11:09 am
#389
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: ORD/MDW
Programs: AA EXP, DL-Plat, WN-CP | Hotels: Choice-Gld, IHG-Plt, Rad-Gld, HH-Dia, Hyatt-Glob, Marriott-LtPlt
Posts: 2,889
Since I have a gmail account, I use picasaweb/google photos for free.
Apr 15, 2015, 11:13 am
#390
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: HOU
Programs: WN CP, A+, UA Sil, MR Amb LTP, Hyatt Plat, HH Dia, National EE
Posts: 466
use http://www.imgur.com/ it's easy.