Norwegian Air stability through summer?
#211
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 419
I agree. Norwegian are not always in full compliant with the EU regulations on how to accommodate passengers. That is why I would never consider Norwegian long haul - only short haul in Europe, where you always can find a cheap alternative...
#213
Join Date: May 2005
Programs: UA Gold 1MM, WN A-List
Posts: 209
I share most of the views about long term stability of Norwegian and agree with everyone on the need for a plan B. I have done quite a few flights with them with mostly good results.
Did fly them SFO-LGW in Premium this week with a close in booking @ 550 GBP or so. From flightaware this route has been running like clockwork.
Swissport are the handling agents for SFO and the checkin was better than United would have been even with status. No moaning about my obviously overweight carry on on the scale and a PRE BP, so they do pick up Nexus/GE. No lounge on the cheap Premium tickets any more. A huge improvement over OAK though!
Very attentive crew and a fine onboard experience. You do not fly Norwegian for the dining experience but it is better food than United Economy Plus .. but not by much! Wifi (free I think) did not work but it never does on United either. Nice to see that they added it and crew seemed a bit surprised it was busted.
I have not flown United in the new Premium Economy but for sure the seats are better than the equivalent BA WT+ 787 product, which I have done.
For those who have not done LGW, the car rental there is instant in terminal including the cars, so a huge win over LHR.
I have not flown them economy except for intra-Europe but the config on the 787 in economy is the same as everyone else. For anyone who does make sure you fully meet the bag limits or pay up. Expect to pay for everything on board.
My advice would be to enjoy it while it lasts, great premium product for the money! No self control by management and they are stuck with the aircraft, so have to fly them anyway. From the fare matrix, it looks like they are flying LGW-SEA all this month with horrible loads. No interline, so they cannot cancel and reroute the way the legacy carriers would. I am not in the airline business but they really need to focus on the core routes and shrink down if they want to make it through next winter!
Did fly them SFO-LGW in Premium this week with a close in booking @ 550 GBP or so. From flightaware this route has been running like clockwork.
Swissport are the handling agents for SFO and the checkin was better than United would have been even with status. No moaning about my obviously overweight carry on on the scale and a PRE BP, so they do pick up Nexus/GE. No lounge on the cheap Premium tickets any more. A huge improvement over OAK though!
Very attentive crew and a fine onboard experience. You do not fly Norwegian for the dining experience but it is better food than United Economy Plus .. but not by much! Wifi (free I think) did not work but it never does on United either. Nice to see that they added it and crew seemed a bit surprised it was busted.
I have not flown United in the new Premium Economy but for sure the seats are better than the equivalent BA WT+ 787 product, which I have done.
For those who have not done LGW, the car rental there is instant in terminal including the cars, so a huge win over LHR.
I have not flown them economy except for intra-Europe but the config on the 787 in economy is the same as everyone else. For anyone who does make sure you fully meet the bag limits or pay up. Expect to pay for everything on board.
My advice would be to enjoy it while it lasts, great premium product for the money! No self control by management and they are stuck with the aircraft, so have to fly them anyway. From the fare matrix, it looks like they are flying LGW-SEA all this month with horrible loads. No interline, so they cannot cancel and reroute the way the legacy carriers would. I am not in the airline business but they really need to focus on the core routes and shrink down if they want to make it through next winter!
#214
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 3,774
Same here. My biggest complaint is the consistently late departure. We've flown 9 TATL flights with DY in the last 16 months, all in Premium Economy. I think the most timely departure was about 45 minutes late, most are an hour to two hours late. And none have been a result of late incoming aircraft because the plane has always been at the gate when we arrived at the stated boarding time.
Other than that, the flights have been fine, seats / space in premium is comfortable, cabin crew polite and attentive (especially appreciate the water being served multiple times throughout the flight, even at night), food is acceptable even if the presentation is basic (delivered in cardboard boxes). IFE could be better as it is repetitive once one has flown multiple times in a year, but I always have an iPad full of books and downloaded Netflix videos. Nice that they have USB / power connections to keep my device charged. I'm surprised there is no basic amenities kit in Premium (just an eye mask, ear plugs and socks would be nice), but now I know so I take one with me.
I'm really disappointed that all CPH routes to the US are cancelled for the upcoming winter season. The advantage of DY for us has been the direct flights to CPH. That, plus the ability to book one-way flights for the same fare as if booking a return flight. That has been invaluable, as we've had to make a number of trips back and forth without knowing a return date in advance.
I have not found another airline where I can book a one-way ticket in premium (or business) for a remotely reasonable fare.
I hope they survive.
Other than that, the flights have been fine, seats / space in premium is comfortable, cabin crew polite and attentive (especially appreciate the water being served multiple times throughout the flight, even at night), food is acceptable even if the presentation is basic (delivered in cardboard boxes). IFE could be better as it is repetitive once one has flown multiple times in a year, but I always have an iPad full of books and downloaded Netflix videos. Nice that they have USB / power connections to keep my device charged. I'm surprised there is no basic amenities kit in Premium (just an eye mask, ear plugs and socks would be nice), but now I know so I take one with me.
I'm really disappointed that all CPH routes to the US are cancelled for the upcoming winter season. The advantage of DY for us has been the direct flights to CPH. That, plus the ability to book one-way flights for the same fare as if booking a return flight. That has been invaluable, as we've had to make a number of trips back and forth without knowing a return date in advance.
I have not found another airline where I can book a one-way ticket in premium (or business) for a remotely reasonable fare.
I hope they survive.
#215
Join Date: Jul 2001
Programs: Marriott LT Tit; Hyatt Explorist; Hilton CC Gold; IHG CC Plt; Hertz (MR) 5 star
Posts: 5,536
Another unsubstantiated takeover rumor from another nameless entity. https://www.euronews.com/2019/05/16/...eover-interest
#216
Join Date: Jul 2001
Programs: Marriott LT Tit; Hyatt Explorist; Hilton CC Gold; IHG CC Plt; Hertz (MR) 5 star
Posts: 5,536
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/LNLNB
#217
Join Date: Jul 2001
Programs: Marriott LT Tit; Hyatt Explorist; Hilton CC Gold; IHG CC Plt; Hertz (MR) 5 star
Posts: 5,536
Another unsubstantiated takeover rumor from another nameless entity. https://www.euronews.com/2019/05/16/...eover-interest
#218
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 17,424
The cooling of speculation in the oil market is almost certain to help Norwegian get through the summer and, I suspect, the fall. Fuel is a huge expense for them, and a 15 cent decline in jet fuel prices (which we've seen in the past week) is a big deal for a struggling transatlantic airline. I also suspect the huge demand for summer transatlantic travel will result in more "spillage," as budget conscious consumers will balk at sky-high "last minute" fares from the "full service" carriers.
Norwegian's real problem is the non-peak transatlantic season, which I'd say is about 8 months of the year. There's more supply than demand for coach seats during that time, and the big boys make their money (to the extent they make money) on premium cabin travellers after the summer leisure rush. Coach seats sell cheap during this time period. I just bought seats on DL to Spain for $250 roundtrip for April yesterday. UA, AA and Iberia had similar fares, and it's pretty easy to buy such seats under $400 to most of Europe in winter. This is the fundamental flaw in Norwegian's business model that won't be going away.
Norwegian's real problem is the non-peak transatlantic season, which I'd say is about 8 months of the year. There's more supply than demand for coach seats during that time, and the big boys make their money (to the extent they make money) on premium cabin travellers after the summer leisure rush. Coach seats sell cheap during this time period. I just bought seats on DL to Spain for $250 roundtrip for April yesterday. UA, AA and Iberia had similar fares, and it's pretty easy to buy such seats under $400 to most of Europe in winter. This is the fundamental flaw in Norwegian's business model that won't be going away.
#219
Join Date: Jul 2001
Programs: Marriott LT Tit; Hyatt Explorist; Hilton CC Gold; IHG CC Plt; Hertz (MR) 5 star
Posts: 5,536
The cooling of speculation in the oil market is almost certain to help Norwegian get through the summer and, I suspect, the fall. Fuel is a huge expense for them, and a 15 cent decline in jet fuel prices (which we've seen in the past week) is a big deal for a struggling transatlantic airline. I also suspect the huge demand for summer transatlantic travel will result in more "spillage," as budget conscious consumers will balk at sky-high "last minute" fares from the "full service" carriers.
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In addition, Norwegian has been running nearly nonstop fare sales through the summer. This indicates to me that they are running very low on cash and are struggling to just meet payroll.
Someone's been selling the stock aggressively in the last few weeks.
#220
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 3,774
Norwegian's real problem is the non-peak transatlantic season, which I'd say is about 8 months of the year. There's more supply than demand for coach seats during that time, and the big boys make their money (to the extent they make money) on premium cabin travellers after the summer leisure rush.
That's why it is surprising to me that they are dropping all winter flights from CPH. MCO was always seasonal (summer) and the FLL flight was only twice per week in winter, but was full whenever we took it.
#221
Join Date: Jul 2001
Programs: Marriott LT Tit; Hyatt Explorist; Hilton CC Gold; IHG CC Plt; Hertz (MR) 5 star
Posts: 5,536
While my data point is admittedly small and anecdotal, having flown transatlantic on Norwegian 9 times in a little over a year, I have not seen a single empty seat in either class (prem or econ) on any flight. This has been all from CPH to Florida (FLL or MCO), but in January (twice), April (twice), May, August, October, November and December. I know they offer premium economy upgrades for a reasonable price close to (or on?) the day of travel, but having booked several of our flights fairly late (i.e. within a few weeks of travel), I can attest that the premium seat map was nearly full when we booked. And they've usually announced during boarding that the flight is full. (Although our last flight at the end of April did have some last-minute bookings by people who were affected by the SK strike.)
That's why it is surprising to me that they are dropping all winter flights from CPH. MCO was always seasonal (summer) and the FLL flight was only twice per week in winter, but was full whenever we took it.
That's why it is surprising to me that they are dropping all winter flights from CPH. MCO was always seasonal (summer) and the FLL flight was only twice per week in winter, but was full whenever we took it.
I stated in the last couple of months that Norwegian needed to raise their ticket prices a minimum of 10% just to get to breakeven and keep operating as a going concern. Instead, they have been having weekly fire sales of their seats through this entire summer. They have essentially put themselves out of business by doing this because they will need an even larger capital raise this fall in order to survive.
To me, it appears that Norwegian management gave up on running an airline and simply decided to make a roulette bet on the price direction of oil by taking such a large fuel hedge position. And at the moment, that bet is going very poorly for Norwegian.
#222
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 3,774
Thank you for that clear explanation, iflyjetz. It's a shame to hear, but understandable. We have been able to fly premium economy, booking one-way fares, this past year+ precisely because the fares have been so reasonable. Sad to realize it will be their demise.
And you are correct, I receive an email several times a week offering sale prices on seats. I hope they find a way to survive while also retaining a competitive price, even if it has to increase somewhat.
And you are correct, I receive an email several times a week offering sale prices on seats. I hope they find a way to survive while also retaining a competitive price, even if it has to increase somewhat.
#223
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 17,424
Oh, jeez, is Norwegian still playing the oil hedging game? I forgot about that. If so, I take back my comments about fuel helping them. These guys manage to get everything wrong. Brent crude fell another 3 bucks today. That will cost them a lot of money.
As far as the planes being full, that's pretty meaningless. Air Berlin's planes were full. As are most failing airlines. Unless you're flying 777s to Peoria, you can usually sell all your inventory. The hard part is selling it for a profit. I also don't understand why an airline would sell at a loss when their planes are full, but it's common.
As far as the planes being full, that's pretty meaningless. Air Berlin's planes were full. As are most failing airlines. Unless you're flying 777s to Peoria, you can usually sell all your inventory. The hard part is selling it for a profit. I also don't understand why an airline would sell at a loss when their planes are full, but it's common.
#224
Join Date: Jul 2001
Programs: Marriott LT Tit; Hyatt Explorist; Hilton CC Gold; IHG CC Plt; Hertz (MR) 5 star
Posts: 5,536
At the end of Q1, Norwegian had 3.1B NOK in equity; bond covenants require a minimum of 1.5B in equity. https://www.norwegian.com/globalasse...rt_2019_q1.pdf
In their end of April traffic report, it showed Norwegian pretty deeply hedged at ~$680/mt of jet fuel. https://www.norwegian.com/globalasse...april-2019.pdf
24 May (from IATA's website) spot price is $641.13/mt of jet fuel, with the price being a bit lower in Europe. https://www.iata.org/publications/ec...ges/index.aspx
At this point, I'd think it's up to the bondholders whether or not Norwegian operates through the summer. At this point, I would think that Norwegian has to get bondholders to accept a debt to equity swap. However, a complicating issue is that a decent amount of Norwegian's assets are impaired in value (Rolls Royce Trent-1000 powered 787s and 737 Maxes). The impairment on those assets alone probably makes Norwegian insolvent, as I suspect they're being marked with a level 3 valuation.
#225
Join Date: Jul 2001
Programs: Marriott LT Tit; Hyatt Explorist; Hilton CC Gold; IHG CC Plt; Hertz (MR) 5 star
Posts: 5,536
Thank you for that clear explanation, iflyjetz. It's a shame to hear, but understandable. We have been able to fly premium economy, booking one-way fares, this past year+ precisely because the fares have been so reasonable. Sad to realize it will be their demise.
And you are correct, I receive an email several times a week offering sale prices on seats. I hope they find a way to survive while also retaining a competitive price, even if it has to increase somewhat.
And you are correct, I receive an email several times a week offering sale prices on seats. I hope they find a way to survive while also retaining a competitive price, even if it has to increase somewhat.
Given how quickly they've been able to burn through their last capital raise, I would think that they'll have an extremely hard time finding an investor willing to throw more money at them.