Coronavirus in Sweden
Aug 13, 2020, 6:20 am
#916
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: CPH, Swedish side of the bridge
Programs: SK*G (EBD)
Posts: 574
I think it is entertaining how many people on FlyerTalk (and all other public forums for that matter) think they know what they are talking about.You don't. I don't either, but I regularly publish in epidemiology journals and my wife is a practicing virologist. Can everyone shut up about whether Sweden is doing the right thing? We will know in 18 months. That is one of Tegnell's strong points - he admits that he doesn't know. Can the FlyerTalk community admit the same thing and shut up? And BTW - for those irritated with the way that Swedes distance (who seem to be mostly Germans) - Berlin is WAY worse than Sweden.
Can we all just agree that no one will know until it is over, and that most of us have no competence in discussing this? I am pining for discussions about 737 vs A320....
Can we all just agree that no one will know until it is over, and that most of us have no competence in discussing this? I am pining for discussions about 737 vs A320....
Aug 13, 2020, 6:34 am
#917
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: CPH, Swedish side of the bridge
Programs: SK*G (EBD)
Posts: 574
Well, that is one way to look at it. Another is to look at the point that the highest ever 7 day rolling average was 1,127, meaning that the infection rate is still running at 25.5% of the infection rate at the worst point in time. So, I am arguing that saying the epidemic is over in all practical senses is a naive point of view. Yesterday was 329 new cases, so there may signs of an upward trajectory again, like in most other countries. The risk of a flare up is still very much there.
No, it does not come as a surprise that we don't see eye to eye on the article.
No, it does not come as a surprise that we don't see eye to eye on the article.
Testing volume influences these numbers.
Aug 13, 2020, 6:40 am
#918
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This is a case where statistics plays tricks on you, while working in the field gives you a better view.
In April, the health care system was so overloaded that they only actually tested those that were hospitalized. And at that time, between 500-600 people were confirmed positive per day. But the real infection numbers were far, far higher.
Now, on the other hand, they don't have so many hospitalized patients, so anybody that wants to get tested can be tested. The number 1,127 that you mention, is from the beginning of June, when they suddenly opened up for everybody and his brother to get tested. So, those cases were mostly asymptomatic or with mild symptoms only. And it's the same with the number of infections today: They're mostly asymptomatic or with mild symptoms.
But the hospitals hardly see any of the new positive cases at all, and that was Doctor Rushworth's point: In March, "Practically everyone who was tested had Covid, regardless of their presenting symptoms ... It is now four months since the start of the pandemic, and I haven’t seen a single Covid patient in over a month. When I do test someone because they have a cough or a fever, the test invariably comes back negative."
In order to get a more correct view of the infection rate, it's better to look at the 7-day average number of dead, to assume a mortality rate of 0.5%, and to assume a one-month period from infection to death. That would give the following numbers:
March 1: 8,200
April 1: 15,600
May 1: 7,800
June 1: 3,600
July 1: 400
In April, the health care system was so overloaded that they only actually tested those that were hospitalized. And at that time, between 500-600 people were confirmed positive per day. But the real infection numbers were far, far higher.
Now, on the other hand, they don't have so many hospitalized patients, so anybody that wants to get tested can be tested. The number 1,127 that you mention, is from the beginning of June, when they suddenly opened up for everybody and his brother to get tested. So, those cases were mostly asymptomatic or with mild symptoms only. And it's the same with the number of infections today: They're mostly asymptomatic or with mild symptoms.
But the hospitals hardly see any of the new positive cases at all, and that was Doctor Rushworth's point: In March, "Practically everyone who was tested had Covid, regardless of their presenting symptoms ... It is now four months since the start of the pandemic, and I haven’t seen a single Covid patient in over a month. When I do test someone because they have a cough or a fever, the test invariably comes back negative."
In order to get a more correct view of the infection rate, it's better to look at the 7-day average number of dead, to assume a mortality rate of 0.5%, and to assume a one-month period from infection to death. That would give the following numbers:
March 1: 8,200
April 1: 15,600
May 1: 7,800
June 1: 3,600
July 1: 400
397 today, increasing number again today in Sweden.
I was reading that a lot of Denmark's increases at the moment is coming from young people, meaning the severity of the cases will be lower, but as they are as contagious the risk remains of getting a spread in to other demographics as we go forward. So no, nothing is over yet, not even basically over. But we are hopefully heading towards over.
Aug 13, 2020, 6:47 am
#919
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: CPH, Swedish side of the bridge
Programs: SK*G (EBD)
Posts: 574
"Assuming a constant fatality rate is quite flawed. There are a number of factors that means the fatality rate will be going down." And what are these factors?
Seriously - can't FTers STFU and talk about aviation? At least then maybe a small fraction know what they are talking about, instead of the zero we see today...
Seriously - can't FTers STFU and talk about aviation? At least then maybe a small fraction know what they are talking about, instead of the zero we see today...
Aug 13, 2020, 6:50 am
#920
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Stockholm
Programs: Various
Posts: 3,369
"Assuming a constant fatality rate is quite flawed. There are a number of factors that means the fatality rate will be going down." And what are these factors?
Seriously - can't FTers STFU and talk about aviation? At least then maybe a small fraction know what they are talking about, instead of the zero we see today...
Seriously - can't FTers STFU and talk about aviation? At least then maybe a small fraction know what they are talking about, instead of the zero we see today...
Aug 13, 2020, 6:52 am
#921
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Join Date: Aug 2010
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No one knows much about Covid-19 and no one here is pretending to be virologist or specialist. What people are not happy is how the government is handling this - from Skolplikt to elderly care. It takes a lot for Swedes to come out and speak - look at the leading 22 researchers and a letter with 2000+ signatures. Ask small business owners in Sweden if they are doing ok - they are not. It's not just Tegnell - it's the government that people are not happy about. I don't know what's worse - Covid-19 or shootings or burning of schools or 52000 ammo got stolen from a truck.
If distancing doesn't matter, how come FTV in Skane is not open? Just because Berlin is worse doesn't make Sweden any better.
If distancing doesn't matter, how come FTV in Skane is not open? Just because Berlin is worse doesn't make Sweden any better.
Aug 13, 2020, 6:56 am
#922
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: CPH, Swedish side of the bridge
Programs: SK*G (EBD)
Posts: 574
Well. I am a specialist, and my wife is a virologist...But hey - the rest of you are registered FlyerTalk users.
edit: I don't want to pick fights, I just want people to stop the invectives and calm down...
edit:2 : Those 22 "specialists" were idiots. No one except them thinks they know what they are talking about..
edit: I don't want to pick fights, I just want people to stop the invectives and calm down...
edit:2 : Those 22 "specialists" were idiots. No one except them thinks they know what they are talking about..
Aug 13, 2020, 8:45 am
#924
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 46
Well. I am a specialist, and my wife is a virologist...But hey - the rest of you are registered FlyerTalk users.
edit: I don't want to pick fights, I just want people to stop the invectives and calm down...
edit:2 : Those 22 "specialists" were idiots. No one except them thinks they know what they are talking about..
edit: I don't want to pick fights, I just want people to stop the invectives and calm down...
edit:2 : Those 22 "specialists" were idiots. No one except them thinks they know what they are talking about..
Please show us your publications.
Aug 13, 2020, 9:04 am
#925
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: CPH, Swedish side of the bridge
Programs: SK*G (EBD)
Posts: 574
Those 22 were discussed far and wide after their FIRST editorial.I can tell you that it isn't just me who dismissed them...
EDIT: "look at the leading 22 researchers" - the 22 names on there do not even come close to including any of the 22 leading researchers. The biggest name on there is currently at risk of being fired for unethical research behavior. But hey... My only point was that we should stop arguiing about who was right and who was wrong and get back to the topic of the forum. Whoops!
Last edited by JR67; Aug 13, 2020 at 9:25 am
Aug 13, 2020, 3:21 pm
#926
Original Poster
Join Date: May 2008
Location: ARN
Posts: 3,472
I tried to find the text of their editorial, but the only place where it's apparently available, is DN which requires registration. Does anybody know if it's possible to find that text anywhere without having to register?
Aug 13, 2020, 3:24 pm
#927
Original Poster
Join Date: May 2008
Location: ARN
Posts: 3,472
Personally, I think that it's optimistic to think that we'll know in 18 months. I think it'll take 10 years before we have a good perspective on what was the right course of action.
Aug 13, 2020, 6:17 pm
#928
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Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Tokyo
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Posts: 21,183
well. I am a specialist, and my wife is a virologist...but hey - the rest of you are registered flyertalk users.
Edit: I don't want to pick fights, i just want people to stop the invectives and calm down...
edit:2 : those 22 "specialists" were idiots. No one except them thinks they know what they are talking about..
Edit: I don't want to pick fights, i just want people to stop the invectives and calm down...
edit:2 : those 22 "specialists" were idiots. No one except them thinks they know what they are talking about..
Aug 13, 2020, 11:30 pm
#929
Suspended
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Watchlisted by the prejudiced, en route to purgatory
Programs: Just Say No to Fleecing and Blacklisting
Posts: 102,095
Denmark’s unemployment situation is back to its end of March level while Sweden’s unemployment situation remains worse than Denmark’s and isn’t back to the end of March level? Or will a comparative difference like that too have its popular excuses in Sweden, much the same as with Tegnell and his supporters selling excuse after excuse against mask use in public.
Maybe Sweden should thank Denmark for Denmark’s coronavirus response having lead to a decline in firearm-related violence in Malmo for even the summer? I am curious what has gone on with Swedish police doing vehicle stops this year, as it seems that: there are more Swedish police vehicles — marked and unmarked — loitering around on the hunt for speeders; and the number of emergency-responding police vehicles has jumped up over what used to be the case in areas that aren’t classified as “vulnerable”. The coronavirus situation in southern Sweden at least seems to have “freed up” Swedish police resources in ways.
Last edited by GUWonder; Aug 13, 2020 at 11:45 pm
Aug 14, 2020, 1:33 am
#930
Original Poster
Join Date: May 2008
Location: ARN
Posts: 3,472
Why not 100 years?
Denmark’s unemployment situation is back to its end of March level while Sweden’s unemployment situation remains worse than Denmark’s and isn’t back to the end of March level? Or will a comparative difference like that too have its popular excuses in Sweden, much the same as with Tegnell and his supporters selling excuse after excuse against mask use in public.
Denmark’s unemployment situation is back to its end of March level while Sweden’s unemployment situation remains worse than Denmark’s and isn’t back to the end of March level? Or will a comparative difference like that too have its popular excuses in Sweden, much the same as with Tegnell and his supporters selling excuse after excuse against mask use in public.
But right now, it's far too early to draw any conclusions. It's entirely possible that there will be new restrictions in the fall and winter. Plus, the long-term effects of the lockdown haven't been seen yet. It's quite apparent that one long-term effect will be less spending, both by consumers and by businesses, with more hoarding and paying back loans. The results of that effect are not obvious yet and may differ vastly from one country to another.