Coronavirus in Sweden
Aug 19, 2020, 5:06 am
#961
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While I have no doubt that the SD-supporters from up your way are more likely to be your friends than my friends, I know a thing or two about this. Note that in this thread early on that I mentioned that the JA fans then were split regionally in Sweden when it came to their concerns about the coronavirus handling, with the ones in former Danish territory having a different general level of concern about the handling than those in and closer to Stockholm. Refer to my posts in this thread from the second week of April.
Aug 19, 2020, 5:56 am
#962
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Maybe you're right. I just completed a scientific study of Facebook and found that Anders Tegnell's fan club has 33.6K members, while "Coronaviruset -- Folkets förtroende är förbrukat" (formerly Björn Olsen's fan club) has 6.6K members. My study has not been peer reviewed yet, but it will surely be published soon in some major journal. Maybe I'll even get the Nobel prize in medicine for my study.
I personally know way more Swedes of the Tegnell fan club persuasion than Swedes critical of Tegnell. But then you have probably already figured out that I’m more inside with the Swedish government-supporter types than with the knee-jerk opponents of the Swedish governments of the present and recent past.
Last edited by GUWonder; Aug 19, 2020 at 6:06 am
Aug 19, 2020, 6:21 am
#963
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Swedish housing prices have been rising during much of the coronavirus hit, amusingly with Stockholm over-performing the average, Gothenburg, and in some ways even a bit better than Malmo. Malmo performed better than Gothenburg. In some ways, Malmo housing market has performed about the same as or a bit better than Stockholm during this pandemic.
Here’s one public take on the Swedish housing market prices:
https://valueguard.se/indexes
The unemployment situation in Sweden is going to determine where the market goes, as interest rates and lending criteria are about as low as they can go. Any major housing bubble burst in Sweden at this point would be economically and societally brutal.
Here’s one public take on the Swedish housing market prices:
https://valueguard.se/indexes
The unemployment situation in Sweden is going to determine where the market goes, as interest rates and lending criteria are about as low as they can go. Any major housing bubble burst in Sweden at this point would be economically and societally brutal.
Aug 19, 2020, 1:50 pm
#965
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Aug 19, 2020, 2:21 pm
#966
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People will just look the other way or start asking why those people loaned more money than they could pay interest on.
Aug 20, 2020, 9:00 pm
#967
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First half statistics for Sweden seems to be in.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/20/e...ntl/index.html
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/20/e...ntl/index.html
Aug 20, 2020, 9:40 pm
#968
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TEGNELL I just want to see you as much as I can!
SWEDE As friends? We'd just see a lot of each other as friends, and you'd "take care of me”?
TEGNELL Yes.
SWEDE Why? (No answer) Because I remind you of someone? (No answer) That's not very complimentary. (Pause) And nothing would... happen…
TEGNELL No.
SWEDE That's not very complimentary, either.
SWEDE As friends? We'd just see a lot of each other as friends, and you'd "take care of me”?
TEGNELL Yes.
SWEDE Why? (No answer) Because I remind you of someone? (No answer) That's not very complimentary. (Pause) And nothing would... happen…
TEGNELL No.
SWEDE That's not very complimentary, either.
Aug 21, 2020, 1:09 am
#969
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These numbers have been available since the middle of July.
As always with CNN, they present the numbers in a very biased way. It appears that they're trying to scare people as much as possible. "Sweden records highest death tally in 150 years in first half of 2020." They apparently don't understand that since the population is now larger than ever, it's natural to expect a high death toll. A more reliable news source with more balanced news would present the numbers as per capita and not absolute numbers.
Here's the per capita numbers:
2015 5060.1 dead per million
2016 4836.2
2017 4888.5
2018 4849.2
2019 4486.0
2020 5071.7
So, you could basically say that Sweden 2020 is back to the level of Sweden 2015. Or, in other words, five years of improvement to the mortality rate have been wiped out. That's a more correct way of presenting the statistics than the way that CNN does.
"The country also experienced the lowest population increase since 2005." The CNN makes it sound like this has something to do with the death toll, which is completely untrue. It's because the borders have been closed and potential immigrants are unable to travel from Italy and Greece through Europe to come to Sweden.
"Despite the more relaxed approach, only 7.3% of people in Stockholm had developed the antibodies needed to fight the disease by late April -- well below the 70-90% needed for herd immunity." They present this as a fact in spite of the recent Oxford study which claimed that herd immunity may be reached with as little as 20% antibodies, because there are people who also have immunity through T-cells or previous coronavirus infections.
As always with CNN, they present the numbers in a very biased way. It appears that they're trying to scare people as much as possible. "Sweden records highest death tally in 150 years in first half of 2020." They apparently don't understand that since the population is now larger than ever, it's natural to expect a high death toll. A more reliable news source with more balanced news would present the numbers as per capita and not absolute numbers.
Here's the per capita numbers:
2015 5060.1 dead per million
2016 4836.2
2017 4888.5
2018 4849.2
2019 4486.0
2020 5071.7
So, you could basically say that Sweden 2020 is back to the level of Sweden 2015. Or, in other words, five years of improvement to the mortality rate have been wiped out. That's a more correct way of presenting the statistics than the way that CNN does.
"The country also experienced the lowest population increase since 2005." The CNN makes it sound like this has something to do with the death toll, which is completely untrue. It's because the borders have been closed and potential immigrants are unable to travel from Italy and Greece through Europe to come to Sweden.
"Despite the more relaxed approach, only 7.3% of people in Stockholm had developed the antibodies needed to fight the disease by late April -- well below the 70-90% needed for herd immunity." They present this as a fact in spite of the recent Oxford study which claimed that herd immunity may be reached with as little as 20% antibodies, because there are people who also have immunity through T-cells or previous coronavirus infections.
Aug 21, 2020, 1:25 am
#970
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It's interesting to see that the infection is spreading in all the face mask countries, while Sweden sees lower numbers.
Some numbers from 7-day average yesterday:
Germany 1,287 (highest since 1 May)
France 2,921 (highest since 16 April)
Spain had a peak of 4991 five days ago, which was the highest since 2 April, but has since fallen to 3441 yesterday.
Sweden, on the other hand, only had 200 yesterday. It seems that the slight increase that Sweden experienced in the beginning of August is over and we're now back to the level at the end of July.
Some numbers from 7-day average yesterday:
Germany 1,287 (highest since 1 May)
France 2,921 (highest since 16 April)
Spain had a peak of 4991 five days ago, which was the highest since 2 April, but has since fallen to 3441 yesterday.
Sweden, on the other hand, only had 200 yesterday. It seems that the slight increase that Sweden experienced in the beginning of August is over and we're now back to the level at the end of July.
Aug 21, 2020, 1:42 am
#971
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People have been claiming that Sweden will see a great increase in cases in the fall, with school starting again and the public transportation filling up. Now, here's some anecdotal evidence to counter that forecast:
I've been downtown Uppsala a couple of days this week, and my personal impression is that buses and restaurants are less busy now than they were during the summer.
Yyesterday I spoke to a couple of bus drivers that I know about this issue. You could basically say that during the summer, the buses in Uppsala were more crowded than they've ever been. That's partly due to the fact that about 50% of all bus departures are cancelled during the summer, partly because most people had a staycation, partly because they had a lot of free time on their hands, and partly because people have been traveling "for free" due to embarking through back doors. But this week, with the bus schedule back to normal frequency, and with people having less leisure time, the buses actually feel like they're empty compared to the summer.
Most malls in Uppsala have operated with reduced hours since March, but they're also going back to regular hours from 1 September, so I expect that we'll see less crowding there, too, very soon.
I suspect that it's the same all over Sweden. So, me personally, I don't expect the number of cases to rise in the fall.
I've been downtown Uppsala a couple of days this week, and my personal impression is that buses and restaurants are less busy now than they were during the summer.
Yyesterday I spoke to a couple of bus drivers that I know about this issue. You could basically say that during the summer, the buses in Uppsala were more crowded than they've ever been. That's partly due to the fact that about 50% of all bus departures are cancelled during the summer, partly because most people had a staycation, partly because they had a lot of free time on their hands, and partly because people have been traveling "for free" due to embarking through back doors. But this week, with the bus schedule back to normal frequency, and with people having less leisure time, the buses actually feel like they're empty compared to the summer.
Most malls in Uppsala have operated with reduced hours since March, but they're also going back to regular hours from 1 September, so I expect that we'll see less crowding there, too, very soon.
I suspect that it's the same all over Sweden. So, me personally, I don't expect the number of cases to rise in the fall.
Aug 21, 2020, 2:01 am
#972
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I am on a train so I can not post figures, but I encourage you to look into details at the testing numbers and geographical repartition for July August. You will notice a large decrease in testing.
Aug 21, 2020, 2:19 am
#973
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These numbers have been available since the middle of July.
As always with CNN, they present the numbers in a very biased way. It appears that they're trying to scare people as much as possible. "Sweden records highest death tally in 150 years in first half of 2020." They apparently don't understand that since the population is now larger than ever, it's natural to expect a high death toll. A more reliable news source with more balanced news would present the numbers as per capita and not absolute numbers.
Here's the per capita numbers:
2015 5060.1 dead per million
2016 4836.2
2017 4888.5
2018 4849.2
2019 4486.0
2020 5071.7
So, you could basically say that Sweden 2020 is back to the level of Sweden 2015. Or, in other words, five years of improvement to the mortality rate have been wiped out. That's a more correct way of presenting the statistics than the way that CNN does.
"The country also experienced the lowest population increase since 2005." The CNN makes it sound like this has something to do with the death toll, which is completely untrue. It's because the borders have been closed and potential immigrants are unable to travel from Italy and Greece through Europe to come to Sweden.
"Despite the more relaxed approach, only 7.3% of people in Stockholm had developed the antibodies needed to fight the disease by late April -- well below the 70-90% needed for herd immunity." They present this as a fact in spite of the recent Oxford study which claimed that herd immunity may be reached with as little as 20% antibodies, because there are people who also have immunity through T-cells or previous coronavirus infections.
As always with CNN, they present the numbers in a very biased way. It appears that they're trying to scare people as much as possible. "Sweden records highest death tally in 150 years in first half of 2020." They apparently don't understand that since the population is now larger than ever, it's natural to expect a high death toll. A more reliable news source with more balanced news would present the numbers as per capita and not absolute numbers.
Here's the per capita numbers:
2015 5060.1 dead per million
2016 4836.2
2017 4888.5
2018 4849.2
2019 4486.0
2020 5071.7
So, you could basically say that Sweden 2020 is back to the level of Sweden 2015. Or, in other words, five years of improvement to the mortality rate have been wiped out. That's a more correct way of presenting the statistics than the way that CNN does.
"The country also experienced the lowest population increase since 2005." The CNN makes it sound like this has something to do with the death toll, which is completely untrue. It's because the borders have been closed and potential immigrants are unable to travel from Italy and Greece through Europe to come to Sweden.
"Despite the more relaxed approach, only 7.3% of people in Stockholm had developed the antibodies needed to fight the disease by late April -- well below the 70-90% needed for herd immunity." They present this as a fact in spite of the recent Oxford study which claimed that herd immunity may be reached with as little as 20% antibodies, because there are people who also have immunity through T-cells or previous coronavirus infections.
Though in some ways, you might have expected the Spanish Flu to have given a higher absolute number, as the options for medical care and recovery were not as good as they are now. Though I wont say I studied the Spanish Flu, just a now busted preconception of mine.
Aug 21, 2020, 2:50 am
#974
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It's interesting to see that the infection is spreading in all the face mask countries, while Sweden sees lower numbers.
Some numbers from 7-day average yesterday:
Germany 1,287 (highest since 1 May)
France 2,921 (highest since 16 April)
Spain had a peak of 4991 five days ago, which was the highest since 2 April, but has since fallen to 3441 yesterday.
Sweden, on the other hand, only had 200 yesterday. It seems that the slight increase that Sweden experienced in the beginning of August is over and we're now back to the level at the end of July.
Some numbers from 7-day average yesterday:
Germany 1,287 (highest since 1 May)
France 2,921 (highest since 16 April)
Spain had a peak of 4991 five days ago, which was the highest since 2 April, but has since fallen to 3441 yesterday.
Sweden, on the other hand, only had 200 yesterday. It seems that the slight increase that Sweden experienced in the beginning of August is over and we're now back to the level at the end of July.
There are plenty of countries doing worse than Sweden at the moment, there are plenty of countries doing better than Sweden at the moment. There is no doubt that Sweden has come to a much better situation by now, that right now the numbers are looking a lot better than they have been looking. My objection at this point is that there is a tendency to say "case closed, epidemic is over" in Sweden, which I believe is seriously premature. I'd only be happy if it was the case, I'd only be happy f there were no more flare ups, in Sweden or anywhere else. The risk by declaring victory too early is that people will let down their guard, and create the basis for bigger clusters to emerge.
Not to toot the horn for New Zealand's approach, as I do actually think they took it too far in terms of lock down and by having an absolute zero target for infections, but look at how rapidly it could suddenly reenter society after 100 days of zero local transmissions.
The herd immunity remains a very open question, there are studies that show more positive or show more negative tones on that topic. The jury is still very much out on that one. It is interesting that one of the arguments from Tegnell on not taking various steps to curb the spread is that there was no scientific evidence that they would work (how could there be for a newly discovered virus), but he is happy to talk about herd immunity for which there is still zero scientific evidence. One point he made on Danish television was "all diseases have herd immunity", well let's discuss that with Ebola, Anthrax, and HIV/AIDS. Why is it that herd immunity does not require scientific evidence to be an option in his play book, but other options do?