oliver2002

Because they are out and about in the sunny nice weather. Just wait till the weather goes back to normal fall and everyone rubs shoulders in crowded places.

CPH-Flyer

The naivity of the "Corona is over in Sweden" statement is just so staggering. I am feeling less and less confident in the medical profession in Sweden. Not the first quote from a doctor to that extend I have encountered. I guess 288 new infections per day as rolling 7 day average is the same as completely over.

oliver2002

I lke to refer to the FT death rate (vs normal years). The level in Sthlm clearly shows there are higher death rates even today... not as high as in spring, but still higher...

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service...ext&width=1260

nacho

Someone wrote that she went to a public clinic wearing a mask, a nurse immediately came over and asked if she is ill. She said no, she is wearing a mask to protect the others. The nurse said to her that if she is ill the mask should be put the white side out and the opposite if not. I have never heard of that in my life.

This dude again - no wonder he is a junior doctor.

This is what FHM wants us to think - number of cases are dropping so it's over. No need to worry about packed buses and trains, everything is on as usual. I guess Swedish schools start next week so it will be interesting to see the figures 2-3 weeks from now.

CPH-Flyer

What am I to do with my masks that are white on both sides? LOL.

There are differences in masks whether they are supposed to keep things out, or things in. Surgical masks are typically meant to keep things in.

But I have never heard that you can change that effect just by flipping them over. Somehow I am sure you should wear the mask as it was designed to be worn.

Fredrik74

I would have preferred to hear from more senior doctors at Danderyd. Or preferably Karolinska or Huddinge. Reason for that is whilst I'm not 100% certain of the geographic distribution of their respective patients I know that Danderyd is located in the wealthy North-East and the other big hospitals serve the bigger immigrant areas.

nacho

Exactly - that's why we were shocked to see that post!

I don't like he is using his "impression" rather than supporting with facts - Sweden is much more than just Stockholm.

Fredrik74

What do you mean? Yes, you can travel to Åre, VIsby, Båstad and Österlen. We all know that. Just make sure to go when the others are going too. That doesn't mean that those who live there and their opinions or experiences really count.

Right?

In a way this is typical. Inner city Stockholm(including Bromma) and the nice suburbs to the East and Northeast are the only ones that count. The rest is flyover country.

nacho

I mean if he thinks his hospital/department has no case of Covid-19 doesn't mean it's over in Sweden - his statement makes himself sounds like an idiot: I'm glad that the language and literature department at University of Gothenburg has decided to move all courses online this term:

The very interesting part is they are following FHM's recommendation.

GUWonder

I give it 5-8 weeks from Tuesday for the real hit from this month’s vacations endings

Junior or senior, doctors thinking like that are anything but rare in Sweden. The Swedish doctors in my social circle find me mostly to be an outsider to their thinking. The American, Asian and other European doctors in my family are somewhere between curious and concerned about me in Sweden and what comes next for Sweden at this time.

GUWonder

Danderyd’s maternity ward frequently has people staying there who are from the poorer outskirts of Stockholm too. Skarholmen is pretty far away from being like the better parts of Danderyd.

RedChili

It may not come as a surprise that I actually liked his article very much. It made a lot of sense.

But, no, he didn't say that it was "completely over," as you claim. He said: "Basically, Covid is in all practical senses over and done with in Sweden." And I really agree. You're talking about 288 new infections as a rolling 7 day average. That's less than 0.003% of the population. If so few are infected, there's no pandemic anymore.

Have I understood correctly that you claim that 0.003% is an "exceptionally high proportion of the population"?

Here's an updated graph for mortality per day per million for all of Sweden, for the months of January-June 2015-2020. As you can see, from about May 21, we've had completely normal numbers in Sweden.

fassy

Well, not trying to fuel the discussion too much, I (as a data guy) have to at least argue that that graphs/figure violate the most basic principle of scientific data display. Which is: if you show data from different series which should be used for comparison, show them using the same scaling. Obviously most people will argue that of course the absolute number of Brazil are different than the numbers in Sweden. But then comparing absolut numbers is not the way of doing it. More useful would be per capita for example.

And yes, I also belong to those people who think that the whole crisis management has taken a very wrong path in the last few months. There is no strategy in most countries, there is panic reaction going one way or the other. Which is not helping too much.

CPH-Flyer

Well, that is one way to look at it. Another is to look at the point that the highest ever 7 day rolling average was 1,127, meaning that the infection rate is still running at 25.5% of the infection rate at the worst point in time. So, I am arguing that saying the epidemic is over in all practical senses is a naive point of view. Yesterday was 329 new cases, so there may signs of an upward trajectory again, like in most other countries. The risk of a flare up is still very much there.

No, it does not come as a surprise that we don't see eye to eye on the article.

RedChili

This is a case where statistics plays tricks on you, while working in the field gives you a better view.

In April, the health care system was so overloaded that they only actually tested those that were hospitalized. And at that time, between 500-600 people were confirmed positive per day. But the real infection numbers were far, far higher.

Now, on the other hand, they don't have so many hospitalized patients, so anybody that wants to get tested can be tested. The number 1,127 that you mention, is from the beginning of June, when they suddenly opened up for everybody and his brother to get tested. So, those cases were mostly asymptomatic or with mild symptoms only. And it's the same with the number of infections today: They're mostly asymptomatic or with mild symptoms.

But the hospitals hardly see any of the new positive cases at all, and that was Doctor Rushworth's point: In March, "Practically everyone who was tested had Covid, regardless of their presenting symptoms ... It is now four months since the start of the pandemic, and I haven’t seen a single Covid patient in over a month. When I do test someone because they have a cough or a fever, the test invariably comes back negative."

In order to get a more correct view of the infection rate, it's better to look at the 7-day average number of dead, to assume a mortality rate of 0.5%, and to assume a one-month period from infection to death. That would give the following numbers:

March 1: 8,200
April 1: 15,600
May 1: 7,800
June 1: 3,600
July 1: 400