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Coronavirus in Sweden

Coronavirus in Sweden

Old Apr 14, 2020, 3:47 pm
  #166  
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Originally Posted by Fredrik74
Numbers of dead have been updated now. I checked first seven days of April and 2020 is about 10% higher than the other years. That's even when 7th is quite obviously not fully reported yet.
The total number for March 2020 was 8,219. The average total for March 2015-2019 was 8,297, so March was slightly below.

So far, the total for 1-7 April 2020 is 2,002, while the average total for 1-7 April 2015-2019 is 1,823. That is indeed a 9.8% increase in absolute numbers.

But you also have to factor in that the total population of Sweden has grown since 2015. The average population of Sweden 2015-2019 was 10.105 million, while today's population is probably around 10.358 million. So, if we instead count per million:

The total number for March 2020 was 793 per million. The average total for March 2015-2019 was 821 per million. So, March saw a decrease of 3.4%.

So far, the total for 1-7 April 2020 is 193 per million, while the average total for 1-7 April 2015-2019 was 180 per million. That's an increase of 7.2%.
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Old Apr 14, 2020, 4:17 pm
  #167  
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Hasn’t Sweden’s population inched toward the younger side since say 2014? Yes, I keep hearing the talk that Somalis, Syrians and Iraqis in Sweden are “over-represented” in the count of the dead from this virus in Sweden. And yet the vast majority of the people dead from this virus have a rather traditional Swedish name?
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Old Apr 14, 2020, 5:12 pm
  #168  
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It was reported early on that Somalis were overrepresented among the dead. It's also been reported that suburbs such as Spnga, Kista, Rinkeby and other localities with lots of immigrants had an extremely high number of infected people, while more affluent "Swedish" quarters have a lower number of infected.

I haven't seen any list of names of deceased. I thought that information was confidential.

The immigration has probably led to a decrease in the average age of the population, but the number of elderly people is also constantly on the rise. The proportion of middle aged has probably decreased.
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Old Apr 15, 2020, 3:04 am
  #169  
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Poorer sections of the Swedish cities and towns most commonly have a contingent of poor elderly people who don’t get visually perceived as immigrants and have common Swedish family names and are stuck in more crowded multifamily buildings with other poor people of various backgrounds.

Stuffing people into more dense areas and accommodations may result in increased viral load risk and thus increased likelihood of serious harm and death with the virus.
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Old Apr 15, 2020, 3:07 am
  #170  
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Okay, so here's a chart that I made from statistics that's available from the SCB with number of dead per day:



It shows the average number of dead per day per million of the population. For this purpose, I've chosen to call 1-7 january as week 1, with 26 March - 1 April as week 13 (the last week that we have complete numbers for 2020), and 23-29 April as week 17. I added February 29 in leap years 2016 and 2020 to week 9, so those two weeks actually have eight days. And that's why I chose to present the statistics as an average per day.

I also averaged the figures according to the population per million. I've taken the population figures from end of 2015-2019. Since the population for end of 2020 isn't known yet (for obvious reasons), I've used an expected 1% growth from the 2019 numbers as a basis. (The actual population growth from 2015 to 2019 was between 0.95-1.46%).

When looking at the chart, 2020 appears to be in the higher end of the spectrum, while 2015 and 2018 appears to be in the higher end. And, indeed, when you take the numbers and average them for the entire first 13 weeks of the year, you end up with the following numbers:

2015 26.2 dead per day per million
2016 26.0
2017 26.1
2018 26.2
2019 25.7
2020 25.8

It's still way too early to draw any conclusions, but so far I can't say that I agree with people who claim that watching Sweden today is like watching a horror movie.
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Old Apr 15, 2020, 3:46 am
  #171  
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I actually made a slight mistake in the previous chart by calculating with the population at the end of the year. It's better to use the population at the beginning of each year since we're using figures for the first quarter, and I won't have to estimate the 2020 population figures. The results are anyway almost identical. So, here's the updated chart:



Total for the first 13 weeks:
2015 26.3
2016 26.0
2017 26.1
2018 26.2
2019 25.8
2020 25.8
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Old Apr 15, 2020, 4:46 am
  #172  
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That line graph makes no sense for 2020. The deaths per day per million in recent weeks is not zero.

Given Sweden’s population has been mostly trending downward In age in recent years, the selected death figures would be expected to trend downward anyway because of that.

The graph would tell a more interesting story if it focused on the daily death figures for the population set of 60+ year old people in Sweden.
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Old Apr 15, 2020, 5:17 am
  #173  
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Originally Posted by GUWonder
That line graph makes no sense for 2020. The deaths per day per million in recent weeks is not zero.

Given Swedens population has been mostly trending downward In age in recent years, the selected death figures would be expected to trend downward anyway because of that.

The graph would tell a more interesting story if it focused on the daily death figures for the population set of 60+ year old people in Sweden.
I haven't included week 14 for 2020 because I suspect that the figures for that week have been underreported. So far, the official SCB number for 8 April, the last day of week 14, is 117, and that's an incredibly low number, so I see no reason to include that week until I'm more certain that I have the correct number. The official number for week 15 is right now 27 for the whole week. Week 16 would be 16-22 April, and week 17 would be 23-28 April.

Although the trend perhaps has been downward in age in recent years, as you claim, there was still an overall increase from 2016 to 2017 and 2018.
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Old Apr 15, 2020, 5:29 am
  #174  
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To clarify: There's nothing in this data that supports the notion that we should expect a downward trend due to a supposedly younger population.

If we look at the five years before covid-19, we find two years with an upward trend: 2017 and 2018, and two years with a downward trend: 2016 and 2019. All in all, the five years from 2015-2019 show no downward or upward trend at all. I would say that it is entirely unreasonable to expect a downward trend in 2020 based on this data.
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Old Apr 15, 2020, 6:32 am
  #175  
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A factor driving a trend downward is not the same thing as a uniform trend downward.

Either way, there are various reasons that it makes sense to correct for age to see what has happened to Swedish death rates due to this virus and compare that to death rates for the same age-controlled cohort in prior periods when this virus wasn’t a leading death factor.
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Old Apr 15, 2020, 2:23 pm
  #176  
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Originally Posted by nacho
Some immigrants (I don't think it's right to call them expats) living in Sweden reported that they were allowed to drive through Denmark to Germany.
I understand that is the official policy.

Some of my colleagues briefly considered hiring a car and driving back when it looked as if flights would cease entirely. With KL still offering daily flights to many destinations they were able to fly instead. In other instances my employers had to resort to chartering aircraft to get staff (and, as a courtesy, a single student who had desperately been trying to get home for over two weeks) to or from where they needed to be. To keep the economy from grinding to a complete halt some people actually still need to travel to get the job done.

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Old Apr 15, 2020, 2:35 pm
  #177  
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Originally Posted by GUWonder
the disproportionately higher number of immigrants being killed by this virus in Stockholm.
Not sure what the difference is between an immigrant in quotation marks and one without, but they are indeed dying in disproportionate numbers.

- Somalis in Sweden (apparently overreprensented by something like 700%, which is a horrific figure).

- Blacks in the US.

- Orthodox Jews in the US and Israel.

In the two first instances the wacko woke are of course lining up to shout "racism", but they are wrong as usual.

When Religion and Culture Kill: COVID-19 in the Somali Diaspora Communities in Sweden

Do COVID-19 Racial Disparities Matter?

When it comes to Jews the woke maintain a studious silence, no surprises there either.

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Old Apr 15, 2020, 2:57 pm
  #178  
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Originally Posted by GUWonder
Having relatives and other close acquaintances who are working as doctors in the US, UK and Sweden including in the hot spots in each of these countries many of them call bunk on the claim that all off the dead COVID-19 patients would have been dead in the next 6-12 months even in the hypothetical absence of this novel coronavirus. As a matter of coping with exposure to suffering and deaths, some doctors come up with various rationalizations about people dying in front of them with this virus too. One such coping mechanism: to believe that the dead patients would have died anyway very soon either way.
Calling bunk doesn't prove anything.

As for coping, any doctor who wants to last more than a few weeks in the job will have to learn that in a hurry. A high level of empathy (defined as "feeling with") is not a desirable quality in a doctor, as opposed to compassion (defined as "feeling for").

I'm not a doctor, but I'm pretty sure that my exposure to (mostly violent) death has been considerably greater than what most doctors experience during their entire career. Never lost a wink of sleep, but then coping comes natural to me. Pretty handy, don't need to rationalize anything.

In any case, neither my neighbor or I claimed that "all off the dead COVID-19 patients would have been dead in the next 6-12 months". "Vast majority" means something else.

I'm not going to call this one either way. The jury is out, and mortality stats will provide if not proof, then at least a strong indication in due course.

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Old Apr 15, 2020, 3:11 pm
  #179  
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Originally Posted by Fredrik74
Especially the not Italian countries since all others could see what happened there. Since Sweden looks to somewhat later on the curve I reserve judgement there but so far I'm not sure either way.
There are various ways of looking at this.

The following graph showing deaths per capita puts Sweden at exactly the same spot where Italy was on day 28, measured from the day the 10th fatality was recorded. It also shows a few other countries that have done a lot worse. Will be very interesting to see where it goes from here. (as an aside, the Swedish line is probably that wavy because the country, renowned for its efficient and reliable public management, seems incapable of correctly reporting fatalities over weekends and holidays - sheesh!)

Last edited by johan rebel; Apr 15, 2020 at 4:57 pm Reason: corrected spelling
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Old Apr 15, 2020, 3:24 pm
  #180  
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Originally Posted by GUWonder
Hasnt Swedens population inched toward the younger side since say 2014? Yes, I keep hearing the talk that Somalis, Syrians and Iraqis in Sweden are over-represented in the count of the dead from this virus in Sweden. And yet the vast majority of the people dead from this virus have a rather traditional Swedish name?
That's simply because Somalis make up less than 1% of the population in Sweden. It follows that even with a substantial overrepresentation of Somali casualties the majority of victims will still have traditional Swedish names. Straightforward math. There is no contradiction.

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