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Anglo Large Clawed Otter Nov 20, 2008 9:20 am


Originally Posted by Hartmann (Post 10783733)
If you are talking about making tanks and stuff, the auto-industry is different than it was in 1940-1941 and cannot simply "re-tool" to make the military tools we use today.

There is a big delta between an M1A Abrams tank being made in a GM plant vs. a M4 Sherman being made in the same facility.

As the technology in aircraft, tanks, and regular old transport vehicles has increased, the ability of domestic, non-specialized companies to make them has dwindled.

I completely understand collateral in the automakers failing but at the same time, could they not go into bankruptcy, restructure, re-tool, etc. and get back on their feet?

What about the original money given to the auto-industry to retool for more fuel efficient vehicles? That was something like $25B

It's not just the auto plants. It's the huge number of suppliers dependent upon them, that would be able to re-tool their component-parts fabrication processes to supplement the military in time of war.

MBM3 Nov 20, 2008 9:21 am

In regards to the Big 3 automakers being on the brink of failure, there have been some interesting articles on them taking a lesson from the legacy airlines on using bankruptcy as a tool to successfully restructure. All sides of the equation need to take a good hard look on how they are doing things and why...without pointing fingers.

CO 1E Nov 20, 2008 9:21 am

My Wishlist:

Expanded runway at DCA.

DCA-GRU
DCA-SIN
DCA-FRA
DCA-SFO 777
DCA-CLE 777

CO Wishlist:

Downsize to only international flights and feeder flights from lucrative US markets; eliminate reliance on solely domestic traffic.

Anglo Large Clawed Otter Nov 20, 2008 9:22 am

I'm also troubled that we recently became a net food importer. However, the net imports are not really w/r/t staples and necessities. IIRC, the slim net import figures were driven by an increased demand for specialty foods/wines/beers.

If we're ever dependent on trading partners for the very basics of human existence, we're hosed. Farm subsidies are not evil per se.

sbm12 Nov 20, 2008 9:23 am


Originally Posted by MBM3 (Post 10783731)
Is any one else optimistic on how BA will do with the LCY - JFK flight? Yes, I know the potential issues with such a small subfleet, but damn will that be convenient. LCY is such a dream airport - I got from my seat on the AVRO to my client's office in the financial district in under 45 minutes! Even with the gas-n-go in SNN, this has the potential to be a huge time saver for executives who do not have access to private jets.

I don't see it working out. I think that they'll get a lot of business eastbound and very little westbound. That being said, the recent move to open customs screening in SNN on top of immigration which was already there means that the passengers will walk off the plane and be inside the USA already. That does have some value. If the gas-n-go is <=1 hour then it will be a good option. I also wonder what happens if someone gets held at the immigration/customs point. Do they hold the plane? Do they contract with EI/CO for onward transportation to NYC (or AA to ORD)?

Hartmann Nov 20, 2008 9:24 am


Originally Posted by Anglo Large Clawed Otter (Post 10783751)
It's not just the auto plants. It's the huge number of suppliers dependent upon them, that would be able to re-tool their component-parts fabrication processes to supplement the military in time of war.

I can agree with that but even components are highly specialized for military use.

My wife's father works for a company that supplies UPSs to military contract companies. That's all they do. I mean, it's just a UPS, you'd think anyone would be able to do it, but apparently not.

rolov Nov 20, 2008 9:24 am


Originally Posted by CO 1E (Post 10783762)
My Wishlist:

Expanded runway at DCA.

DCA-GRU
DCA-SIN
DCA-FRA
DCA-SFO 777
DCA-CLE 777

CO Wishlist:

Downsize to only international flights and feeder flights from lucrative US markets; eliminate reliance on solely domestic traffic.

might as well add DCA-IAD

COFan Nov 20, 2008 9:25 am


Originally Posted by Anglo Large Clawed Otter (Post 10783765)
I'm also troubled that we recently became a net food importer. However, the net imports are not really w/r/t staples and necessities. IIRC, the slim net import figures were driven by an increased demand for specialty foods/wines/beers.

If we're ever dependent on trading partners for the very basics of human existence, we're hosed. Farm subsidies are not evil per se.

Agreed about this concern, though now some people might look to framing more than to wall street.

Farm subsidies....I dont think I can go into that can of worms...but I will agree with you no evil per se....

MBM3 Nov 20, 2008 9:25 am


Originally Posted by CO 1E (Post 10783762)
My Wishlist:

Expanded runway at DCA.

:D

Imagine a T7 running the river approach from the west! Man, what a ride!

Heck, why you are at it, why not add DCA to BKL or CGF? :)

Hartmann Nov 20, 2008 9:26 am


Originally Posted by Anglo Large Clawed Otter (Post 10783765)
I'm also troubled that we recently became a net food importer. However, the net imports are not really w/r/t staples and necessities. IIRC, the slim net import figures were driven by an increased demand for specialty foods/wines/beers.

If we're ever dependent on trading partners for the very basics of human existence, we're hosed. Farm subsidies are not evil per se.

Yep, this is one of those topics that is rarely discussed and to me it's a bigger issue than the Big 3 tanking.

Maybe it's a cue for people to get back to basics of subsistence farming and local markets. Of course, most of that will never happen on a large scale...

Time to start looking at property in New Mexico to buy ;)

Anglo Large Clawed Otter Nov 20, 2008 9:26 am


Originally Posted by COFan (Post 10783776)
Farm subsidies....I dont think I can go into that can of worms...but I will agree with you no evil per se....

The way they are set up now is far from ideal. I merely intended to make the point that protectionist measures favoring domestic production of necessaries/staples aren't necessarily a bad thing.

Hartmann Nov 20, 2008 9:27 am


Originally Posted by MBM3 (Post 10783777)
:D

Imagine a T7 running the river approach from the west! Man, what a ride!

Heck, why you are at it, why not add DCA to BKL or CGF? :)

Think about the short finals that some of the CRJs pull. I'd love to see a 777 try that!

Anglo Large Clawed Otter Nov 20, 2008 9:27 am


Originally Posted by Hartmann (Post 10783772)
I can agree with that but even components are highly specialized for military use.

My wife's father works for a company that supplies UPSs to military contract companies. That's all they do. I mean, it's just a UPS, you'd think anyone would be able to do it, but apparently not.

If we ever (God forbid) find ourselves in a WWIII situation that lasts more that 15 minutes, I think the government would do all it could to speed up the permitting process.

sbm12 Nov 20, 2008 9:28 am


Originally Posted by MBM3 (Post 10783759)
In regards to the Big 3 automakers being on the brink of failure, there have been some interesting articles on them taking a lesson from the legacy airlines on using bankruptcy as a tool to successfully restructure. All sides of the equation need to take a good hard look on how they are doing things and why...without pointing fingers.

When the airlines have done such restructuring it has been largely at the expense of the union employees as those contracts were trashed. Some leases were also restructured, but the auto industry capital costs are very different in that they buy raw materials more than lease aircraft. It seems to me that the union contracts/benefits and the costs to maintain those are the reason (at a very simplistic level) that the auto industry finds itself in the position it is in. If they just slash the union contracts and start paying lots less and killing the long-term benefits (like free health insurance for life) what is the long term economic impact? I can't imagine that it is particularly good that way, either.

CO 1E Nov 20, 2008 9:31 am


Originally Posted by COFan (Post 10783749)
You raise valid concerns and I hear what you are saying. We are in a deep problem right now, however giving a bailout may only...(some would think will only) delay the inevitable; already we are seeing massive distrust and erosion of consumer confidence in this industry and in GM.

There is no easy way out of this mess, we are in tough times and will be for a while. I don’t think that pushing taxpayer money into these corporations is the right way to go. Remember we are talking about a product that no one likes, or wants…so why enable the problem more? I don’t want to sound callous and we ought to go about in a measured fashion, but the market needs to bear this out.

So it was ok to give $350 billion (plus another $350 billion in the near future) to a bunch of i-bankers and other finance professionals who recklessly gambled everything away away over the past two years, with no strings attached (allowing them to acquire other banks instead of providing more market liquidity through increased lending), but it's not ok to give $25 billion to another industry that, just like finance, makes up a large amount of US GDP because people don't like their products and they take corporate jets to Washington? I don't really see why the auto industry should be treated any differently, at this point. If the rest of the economy were not in crisis, I would agree with not giving the auto industry a bailout. When the choice is bailout vs. depression, however (which I believe it is), there is no choice at all. Do what it takes to stop a depression now, and worry about the management and building cars that people like later. That's not even taking into account the fact that no one will buy cars from a bankrupt manufacturer.


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