Wondering about chances of upgrade to J for AA115 DFW-HNL on 4/19. Booked Y and requested miles+copay to J and was wait listed. No J available on the seat map or for purchase on the app. Currently plat.

Yea, DFW-HNL on 4/19 is currently completely sold out in both business and PE so your chances are not good at all.

Yesterday when the waitlist opened DCA/MIA 738 I was number, no open seats. Possibly because of the travel waiver for DCA (people taking earlier flights) I ended up being upgraded at T-4. My flight left late but arrived only about 25 minutes behind schedule.

What are my chances of getting miles + $$ upgrades for 2 tickets LIS-PHL-PHX on July 19? Would I be better off waiting for a in app upgrade offer (and how common are those)?

At this point it's impossible to say anything more than your chances are "ok". The good news is that you're flying midweek (much better chances) and right now business looks wide open.

Once you purchase the ticket AA will almost certainly offer you an upgrade offer. These are very common. Whether the offer is decent or laughable is anyone's guess.

This is a situation where an ExpertFlyer subscription is worth it's weight in gold. You could buy it but not get on the upgrade waitlist so you can monitor the upgrade offers, while at the same time set up an EF alert if AA were to happen to release any C space between now and then.

This week in domestic upgrades:

DEN-CLT, A321, Sunday, Noon-ish: cleared at 100 hours. (getting pretty tired of the golden chicken or shortrib choice.)
CLT-DCA, A320, Sunday, 6pm or so: did not clear
DCA-ORD, A319 *which somehow turned into a 738 day of departure*, Thursday, 7pm: cleared at ~80 hours
ORD-DEN, 738, Friday, 5:30pm: cleared at 100 hours

12 month rolling LPs are too hard to track, but I'm probably around 240-250K.

4/6:
AA2867, AUS-PHX on 738: #16 out of 34. No one cleared.
AA2664, PHX-TUS on A320: Cleared at T-12 but aircraft changed to A319 so upgrade had to be cancelled. Lots of seat assignments went kaput.

4/8:
AA4817, TUS-PHX on CR7: Cleared at T-48.
AA2892, PHX-AUS on 738: Cleared at T-48

For travel next month, using a SWU, I was able to upgrade to J on AA 106 (JFK-LHR) and also BA 904 (LHR-FRA).
Nice surprise!
It still took 20 minutes on the phone to process the upgrade :eek:

Booked a trip to CLE four days before departure using points.

AA2013, PHLCLE A319 - Cleared at the gate, only waitlist to clear. PDBs and great in-flight service for such a quick flight.
AA899 CLEPHL A319 - Cleared T-100

This was a legacy US A319 and it only has eight seats in FC. The trolleys in the galley were legacy US and even the engineer that came into the flight deck had a US AIRWAYS hat.

Easter Weekend flights

PIA - CLT, CR9, Friday, cleared 100 hours (FC went out with 1 empty seat)
CLT - MLB, CR9, Friday, cleared 100 hours
MLB - CLT, CR9, Monday, Cleared at gate (almost my first missed upgrade on an RJ since getting Platinum Pro last year). 2 cleared at gate
CLT - PIA, CR9, Monday, Cleared 100 hours (one empty FC seat).

Platinum, not sure what my rolling LP was

AA14 4/10/23 OGG-LAX upgraded at the gate about 20 min prior to boarding. 3 seats open when waitlist opened. I was 1st and husband (no status) was second.

Nice one, anyone know how hard it is on the LAX-HNL?

Finishing up a 5 segment, 3 city work trip, cleared 4 of 5 so far.

3/28 AA589 SBA-DFW (cleared at 24 hours) A319, 1 seat left after clearing
3/28 AA2336 DFW-CLE (cleared at 100 hours) B737, 2 seats left after clearing
4/4 AA5358 CLE-DCA (cleared at 100 hours) Piedmont CRJ700, 2 seats left after clearing
4/12 AA803 DCA-DFW (cleared at 48 hours) A321, 1 seat left after clearing, though completely full now < 24 hours before departure
4/12 AA1483 DFW-SBA (still waiting ...)

80% clearance rate on this trip is not too bad. All mid-week flights. I'm EP with approx. 280-300k loyalty points, depending on what has rolled off.

Not too familiar with how this process works but thought I was in really good shape for an upgrade for Friday evening for myself and my Mom as there have been 14 open seats for a while now. 2 came off Monday night which I assume were EXP. At 72 house yesterday it remained at 12 open. What I don’t get now is at 43 hours shouldn’t I get the upgrade as Plat? Or if I’m too low on the board of Plats certainly some seats should be gone from the 12 as there must be some Plats in Y no? Does AA not always do the upgrades right at 72, 48 and 24?

I’m not an expert on how the actual IT system works, but it seems like it’s partially a function I minimum inventory rules that appear to be route and plane-type based, as well as perhaps (though I may be reaching here) based on considerations around whether IROPS could happen. I’ve been upgraded anytime throughout the allotted windows, not just at the 72, 48, 24 hour marks.