Agree - I too am about 1/3 for upgrades this year - but most of those were at the beginning of the year. I am generally 7 or 8 down the list and have been down to 12. DCA is my base city.
Muliple reasons:
1. AA has lowered the price of F - I even have examples of F being cheaper than a discounted coach ticket.
2. AA pushes the upgrade - sending emails and notes in your reservation on the app. If you purchased a higher fare - then the upgrade cost is lower.
3. Many people are having trouble using their miles - so they use for upgrades or reward travel at the high rate of 100K for one way domestic F.
4. There are many more Elites and top level Elites and under the new system - big spenders will be at the top of the list.
5. More CK's - particularly on high traffic routes.

Upgrade chances vary a lot by location. Are you based out of DFW by chance?

Yep, this is exactly right.

I was no fan of the US/AA merger, but the enhanced monetization of F (and the associated precipitous drop in upgrade success) is an industry trend that would have occurred at AA with or without the merger. You will find the same complaints in the DL and UA forums.

When US existed, I didn't have status with them, but I don't remember any time where I wasn't able to pay the flat $50 fee at the airport to move to F when I wanted to. I think it was because there just weren't that many elites back then.

This is part of your problem. Those days are long gone. More people flying, less frequency, FCM full force among all the big 3 US carriers. I don't enjoy nor expect status at AA for upgrades and haven't in a long time. The FFP among all carriers has been re-written. Status today is for getting a free bag, capturing a coach seat with more legroom, zone 1 boarding to get your bag in an overhead bin, and for some getting coveted system wide upgrades (which to be fair, AA still has the best redeemable option out there compared to United and Delta).

It's 2023 not 2010. FFP's have completely changed and it's here to stay.

This past week the seat availability has been at an all time low in J and F. Even last second award tickets in J or F never ticked below 100K where as the last several months at least one flight a day would always hit sub 50K for J.

I looked up "your complimentary upgrade is confirmed" in my email and I have 32 messages from AA this year alone with that title. Yes, most are short flights: PWM-DCA, PWM-PHL, DCA-SDF, PWM-CLT-RIC, CVG-DCA, YYZ-DCA-PWM, BOS-SDF, and CLE-JFK. But they also include BOS-DFW and BOS-MIA. And those are just the upgrades in advance, which result in the email. I have also gotten a number of battlefield upgrades.

But I've also been paying for F because the flights have just been filling up. Tomorrow's DCA-DFW flights are essentially all full, and F was $534 vs. $342 for coach. Much different than the days of yore when F would have been ~3x coach. I rolled the dice on all of the ones I didn't pay for (including the BOS-DFW and BOS-MIA flights) based on EF... also when the upgrade fee is sub-$100, it's a pretty good sign that the AAlgorithm thinks I'm going to get the freebie anyhow (which so far has always proved true). But if loads look suboptimal and the fare difference isn't large, I am buying F. Wouldn't have been doing that a few years ago.

Capacity is low and all flights are full nowadays. People flying to DC Ofcourse there will be alot of upgrade competition.

Im based in Houston which is an american out station and United hub. I get upgraded like a champ . Imagine being a Delta elite based in DFW or a United elite based in ATL.

I am also PPro. I have been upgraded, though not often. A couple months ago I was 1 away from the upgrade from MCI-DFW, which felt significant on that route!

That said, I am currently being offered an upgrade on a 789 for $97. It's domestic, and I probably won't do it because it's a sub-3 hour flight and I have a seat in the PE section free. But the point is, the upgrades are offered cheaply enough that people buy them.

MCI-DFW always offers me $65. It gets higher as it gets closer, but seems consistent. If they started offering LPs for upgrades, I would do it. That's actually the only reason I don't. The bottom line is like most people are saying, it's the way of the airlines now. I don't love it either, but the other perks (international lounge access, those free MCEs and PE section seats on domestic 787s, and 3 free checked bags, for example) still make it worthwhile.

Seems to me when they made upgrades free for all "elite's" that the lists became long and unattainable for many. Back when only EXP had free upgrades the rest had to pay/earn them. You had to manually request them as part of the reservation process and many simply would not be willing to pay or were far more judicious on using those earned upgrades. (Used to be able to by 4 upgrades for $100 if you didn't have enough stickers :D) Now, everyone with status gets an upgrade auto-request and PLT/PP will rarely see one.

After 3.5MM miles, various stints with EXP/AirPass, I'm way past prime for AA and no longer care as I won't/don't fly enough but if we play the "back in the day" machine I probably went years without ever flying coach. Now, can't crack the top 20 list. The product is such that it is no big deal anymore, so long as I can get exit row.

I can't imagine doing the level of travel I did back then in today's environment. I feel for everyone!

I was starting to think that AA hardcode the upgrade list this year to always have me at available seats +1. I would also agree that I buy F a lot more than I used to

I am to the point of possibly not reaching EXP this year - for the first time in recorded history. In the past I might have bothered with a less convenient connection or a less convenient time. PP is still Emerald for int travel, I requalified for Star Alliance Gold and are about to maintain SkyTeam Elite Plus.

But from a business perspective - AA is probably doing the right thing. The revenue from paid upgrades greatly exeeds the few flights I might have bothered to do on AA to maintain EXP

I've been EP for a couple of years and I've actually been upgraded (once) on a low point award ticket out of DFW. That said, I nearly always fly paid First and in talking to the occasional seatmate, learned that virtually all of them were also paid First or paid Upgrades.

Delta awards MQDs for upgrades, even to extra legroom seats (though same day changes sometimes glitch and don’t automatically credit the additional MQDs). I’d love to see this come to AA. It’s all revenue, after all.

as a long time EXP.. I can tell you that upgrades have steadily been on the decline for a long time now..
when I am being offered paid upgrade offers within the upgrade window and up to 24 hours before the flight,
what does that tell you about AA..
1. the so called published benefits about upgrades being processed as per the status of the passenger are bull
2. AA really doesnt care if you get an free upgrade as your published benefit
3. loyalty really only goes one way...

anyway... back to watching the cricket semi finals

What is different now is 2 things, which people seem to forget:

1.) Status-driven credit card spend, which is making more and more people Executive Platinum, etc.
2.) The Social Media Travel Showcase boom has now made people more and more willing to spend to upgrade, meaning the domestic F cabins fill up quicker. If an A320 holds 138 people in MC/MCE, it's not hard to find 12 people who want to pay more for better