ok thanks for the view - i really made a push to AA from Jetblue beginning April so that's why I figured my rolling is much lower

going forward, I'll likely be willing to pay the $/miles when i can lock in me and companion and roll the dice when solo thanks

This Friday (day after Thanksgiving flying MIA/DFW/PHX and upgrades were looking fairly doubtful. For $76 switched to MIA/LAX/PHX (77W to LAX) and arrive about an hour earlier. Then offered $242 paid upgrade on the MIA/PHX portion, which I took. May have gotten a complimentary upgrade (EXP around $250K 12 month rolling) but decided not to chance it. $49 on the LAX/PHX portion which I also jumped on.

Have my fingers crossed for an SWU miracle on 11/28 AA963 DFW-GRU. Looking pretty full up front!

PPro with 85k LPs this period

11/21/23 LAX-BOS AA2453: Cleared at T-4. 8 on the list with 2 clearing at the gate.

Did not have the best feeling about this one. Was J7 until T-30 before dropping down to J1 at T-24. When the list became available, I saw I was #1 for 1 seat. At T-7, another seat became available and at T-4, a third seat was free. As I was sitting in the AC at this point, I went over to an agent and inquired whether there was any chance I’d get an upgrade before the gate as I wanted Flagship Lounge access. She told me it would probably be a battlefield upgrade, but as I was sitting back down in the AC, I got the notification that I got the upgrade. I’m not gonna lie, it felt pretty good walking across the hall to the Flagship Lounge.

11/22 BOS-PHL AA1114: Cleared at T-27. 6 on the list with 4 clearing at the gate.

Both of these the Saturday after Thanksgiving:

OMA-DFW, 738, Saturday, 5am: complementary cleared at 30 hours prior to departure

DFW-ICN, 789, Saturday: SWU cleared off waitlist at around 26 hours prior to departure - called in when I noticed SWU available showing on AA.com. (I didn't think I was going to clear this one - flight had been around J3 for about a week).

EXP, maybe ~240-250k rolling LPs?

Executive platinum and 100 hour Upgrade - Something you should know
 

This is just some info that might help people out. I recently learned something interesting about AA upgrades and how they work. I'm Executive Platinum status have been for several years now. In past years I was frequently upgraded as soon as I reached the 100 hour window. This year though something new is going on. Although seats in business class are still available in less than 100 hours before my flights, I'm not automatically being upgraded. I called the other day to find out why this was the case and they tell me that when a flight is a popular one they often lock out seats. Meaning although I'm Executive Platinum and there are seats showing available, they don't give them to me automatically or any other way. So the question I have is why do you strive to be Executive Platinum if one of the biggest benefits of that is an upgrade you're probably never going to get?

And don't get me wrong I do understand they're out for the most profits but sorry if you're going to tell a person they get an upgrade automatically at 100 hours and then pull it away without any notice you're doing that, that's not right. I fly often and I'm rarely getting upgraded these days unless it's right before the flight and there's still a seat available.

It's always been like this. There has to be upgrade space. They will upgrade down to the last seat at the gate.

I think you're missing something. There are seats available and they're not upgrading me automatically like they're supposed to be. In past years I've always been automatically upgraded when it hits 100 hours this year I'm not so something has changed. When an upgrade becomes available I'm going to be one of the first people that gets it. If there's still a first class seat available a half hour before the flight I'm first in line for one. But I should have been given that at 100 hours per the Executive Platinum rules.

This how it has worked since day #1
They don't just start upgrading at the elite windows simply because there's an unsold seat. No high level elite would ever purchase First Class.
They manage "freebie" vs "hold for sale" First seats the same way they manage the various fare buckets (where they never sell every seat at the deep discount prices as long as history for a given flight shows that they will probably be able to sell 'x' seats at a higher price closer to day of departure).

At some point on the day of the flight, they will give up on being able to sell the few remaining First seats and will release most (or all) of them for upgrades. The Gate Agent will also process upgrades into any actual remaining seats during boarding. Your Exec Plat will keep you higher on the list than no Exec Plats.

These days, there are more people actually buying First Class, so yes, the chances of getting a free upgrade is getting smaller and they are waiting longer to start giving out a few upgrades.

This is not new. It’s been this way for at least two decades. Upgrade space has always been less than revenue space. Simply having first class seats available has never guaranteed an upgrade at the 100 hour window. More seats are now being held back for revenue tickets and revenue upgrades, but again we’ve never been guaranteed an upgrade simply because seats are still available for sale at the 100 hour window. Never, at least not in my two decades plus of traveling on a variety of airlines, including AA, US, UA, NW, DL, CO and HP.

Hello world, the one big difference these days is that AA is now selling upgrades even before elite upgrade windows open and then they want to trick people into paying for upgrades which is why they won't release upgrade space at the elite windows.

The number of people who seem to not understand the phrase "as early as" is impressive...

How are they tricking people?

In fairness, that's not a phrase that AA itself emphasizes when touting the benefits of elite status . . .

AA has dramatically reduced the available inventory for T-100 upgrades in the last few months, in an attempt to sell them.

On most of the routes I fly, it doesn't seem to be working though, since I still almost always clear in advance (at like T-18 though).

It's irritating, but at the same time, AA is desperately trying to make more money any way they can.