That must be it, availability shows C3 but upgrades shows C0.

How does one get this information?

Expertflyer. Under the Flight availability search.

Paid subscription to ExpertFlyer.

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Data point: my wife is Gold. Kid is non-status. They cleared PHL-DFW tomorrow at about 27 hours out (essentially at the 24 hour mark before their regional flight connecting into PHL, which will not clear). Good enough to let them choose their meals in advance, even. It helps that it's a Saturday afternoon, but still great that they both got F for the price of BE. I'm on BOS-DFW for Sunday and haven't cleared yet as EXP but hoping to. (I rolled the dice on these leisure flights instead of paying for it.)

Quick reality check needed: Mrs ConstellationClass (Exec Plat) and I (nothing) are flying DCA-JFK-LHR and return early next year (veeerrrrry low season… JFK-LHR is down to just two round trips each day on AA metal, yes I know BA has numerous flights as well, that’s not the point). We confirmed upgrades to C on the outbound using SWUs (huzzah! A first time for everything). For the return, no C upgrades are available for now.

Just for grins, I called AA to ask about buying an upgrade for the return: $4,XXX per person. No thanks. What about a mileage upgrade? The agent said that upgrades to business can be waitlisted for 57,500 miles per passenger with no cash copay, but 25,000-mile-and-$350-copay upgrades are unavailable “because that’s domestic and this is international.” Not how I’m reading the award chart, but… should I HUACA or am I unclear on the process? Thanks.

I truly wonder if AA has some algorithm that if flying to a Hub they hold upgrades until around T-27, as I've experienced this more and more on empty flights, and even based on your above data points. But when flying the reverse from a Hub to an outstation, getting upgraded at the window opening is more the norm.

Yeah, my BOS-DFW just cleared (as an EXP) at T-27 as well. I've noticed it for a while. It's like I either get it at T-100ish or T-27 (or on rare occasion, T-48). I'm always glad when it comes in early enough for me to pick the meal though.

Agent is incorrect - or seems be mixing miles/copay upgrade and business class award redemptions up. Miles/copay upgrades are 25k + $350 on US/Europe.

But Miles/Copay upgrades come from the same inventory as SWUs. There has to be C upgrade space available for them to clear. If you have SWUs to use, there's no advantage to doing a miles/copay.

Well, finally missed an SWU. Just the 3rd I've missed in 10 years of EXP.

• ICN-DFW, Sunday, 789: SWU did not clear. 3rd of 10 on the list on departure (no-one cleared at the gate). 6 of 7 on SWU's for the year. Slept the flight away in my purchased W seat. Will use the the SWU next year...

Also today:

• DFW-DEN, Sunday, A321, apx 630pm: complimentary, cleared after boarding

EXP, probably somewhere around 250k rolling LP.

According to an AA phone rep I spoke with yesterday, they are apparently waiting until the day before to release C inventory this month due to "holiday season" ... It appears to make sense, because EF now suddenly shows 6 C seats available for tomorrow's AA 281. I checked my own flight and the number of unassigned J-cabin seats is now up to 22 from 20 (on a 787-9). I have my fingers crossed...

The phone rep is just making things up. On a number of AA flights this has been the standard procedure for forever, holiday period or not.

If space isn't released before then you will 100% see it open up about 24-36 hrs. prior, it's been this way for years.

My own personal theory is that there's revenue analyst(s) in Dallas whose job duties every morning when they first log on include a manual review of business space on the next day's long haul flights and the release of C space.

That is why if I'm flying TATL from the US to Europe on say Thursday night, I watch EF like a hawk around 8-9am Wednesday, as that is when things typically open up.

DCA-PIT and PIT-DCA both cleared at T-100.

Some recent ones, EXP with probably ~400k LPs. All AA flights.

DFW-PHL: #3 on list, 2 cleared
LAX-PHL on 787 after Thanksgiving: #1 of >50, 1 cleared
​LAS-LAX around F1: #1 on list, 2 cleared
PHL-TPA: cleared 100 hr
TPA-PHL: #2 on list, 1 cleared after boarding (was CK)
PHL-CDG: SWU cleared 1 month out at booking; cabin seemed to get filled with ~5 nonrevs
LHR-LAX (2x): SWUs cleared 1 month out and 3 months out at booking, respectively; also seem nonrev heavy
LAX-LHR: SWU cleared 3 months out at booking
PHL-LIS: SWU cleared at ~30 hours, the ridiculous thing is the flight was nearly empty in J, was showing I7 for weeks, and still had 10 empty seats when I finally did clear

Also had good success with all my BA LHR-EUR flights clearing.