What's the route and date?

With that many J seats open it's definitely likely that the upgrade will clear, however if space hasn't opened up by now then it almost certainly won't open up until about 24-36 hrs before your flight.

If you get an EF alert then call AA and ask them to process your upgrade. It should happen automatically eventually however sometimes there can be a lag between C space opening and the waitlist processing, as they are separate processes.

​​​​​​​DFW-ICN, Dec. 12

More and more I'm either buying F outright when the price is right or on the lookout for a decent buy up on the app. I'm also seeing more and more people boarding with Group 1 schleping back to coach (often with that defeated look on their face that I know well) as I take the F seat I paid for an upgrade. The airlines are conditioning us away from complimentary upgrades.

I'm EXP (probably only around 125k rolling LP though), flying JFK to LAX Tuesday night at 8pm, landing around midnight. There are 4 business class seats available for purchase. I got an offer to upgrade for $400 which seems fairly reasonable. If I knew I wouldn't get upgraded I would consider paying it, but of course don't want to if I have a decent chance of the upgrade clearing. My only personal data point is that on a similar flight this time last year, as PP I cleared right at the 72-hour window. Any advice?

Like JJeffrey said, it should clear given the wide open cabin. It should start opening up 2 days or so before. Keep an eye out until then.

Probably pretty good but it will be much closer to departure. Unless it's a 787-8, where there are only 20 seats in J, 20 open seats is generally not enough for them to release upgrades 2 weeks out, at least in my experience. A lot of business class gets sold in that time, although not as much as pre-Covid. You can look at the number of occupied orange seats in Y, as those are your competition. And if you do get an EF alert you should call in. Eventually AA will match up the C inventory with upgrade requests but it is not instant.

Take it you're going to be likely the last EXP in line for an upgrade. Not to mention how many other paxs are getting that offer, or even something lower?

Yeah, that's what I was figuring. Was hoping that on a Tuesday night there wouldn't be many EXP (few business travelers). In any case, there's one fewer seat now, and the offer is up to $800 (it previously went up to $600 while there were still 4 seats available). Too rich for me so at least I don't have to make a decision now. But probably should have jumped on the $400 offer....

J6 DEN-LAX, which with competition and timings, I assumed would be an instant UG at the T-100 window. Nope, seems AA is trying to squeeze any residual $$ amount ex-DEN, since T-100 are a thing of the past leaving DEN. But any flight going to DEN, is almost always at T-100.

First time requesting a mileage upgrade. PHL-ZRH on Dec 26. EF shows C3, called to request and was put on waitlist. My group is 3 people, Any reason why they wouldn’t clear it directly or EF is incorrect on availability?

Sounds like you might have been searching under "Flight Availability" and not "Awards and Upgrades" and found revenue C space and not upgrade C space.

Yup.
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...bf77780379.png

Yea, using the "Awards & Upgrades" search you'll see that PHL-ZRH on 12/26 is J3C0. As noted above you must search using the "Awards & Upgrades" search at EF and you must search segment by segment to see the true availability.

This.

Flight availability shows C3 J3 R3 D3 I1 , however, upgrade C is 0. With a flight being J3 with nearly a month to go and you needing 3 seats, OP will likely end up in the back.