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-   -   Chance of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2023 Master Thread) (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage/2106380-chance-upgrade-clearing-availability-2023-master-thread.html)

Carrera2 May 12, 2023 5:44 pm

How can one know their rolling 12-mo LP's ?

I seem to be at the top of the upgrade list routinely but not sure how my LP status will trend in EXP the next few months.

TIA

lowkeyflyer May 12, 2023 5:54 pm

What can I expect as EXP with 0 LP on this itinerary?

SNA->PHX
PHX->IAD or DCA

Leaving Monday morning or Sunday night.

GNRMatt May 13, 2023 7:21 am


Originally Posted by Carrera2 (Post 35245735)
How can one know their rolling 12-mo LP's ?

This is not displayed anywhere. You need to calculate it yourself.

Carrera2 May 13, 2023 7:28 am


Originally Posted by GNRMatt (Post 35246729)
This is not displayed anywhere. You need to calculate it yourself.

That's what it looks like to me too. That stinks. No time to keep that calc going. Just add LPs as fast as I can.

Thanks for the note.

EXP100 May 13, 2023 8:37 am

I've been finding upgrades are becoming a bit easier. Let's see what summer brings but I have to wonder about the sheer number of Americans maxed out on credit cards and now back to living life "more simpler."

enviroian May 13, 2023 10:21 am


Originally Posted by lowkeyflyer (Post 35245749)
What can I expect as EXP with 0 LP on this itinerary?

SNA->PHX
PHX->IAD or DCA

Leaving Monday morning or Sunday night.

You can expect to be sitting coach.

lowkeyflyer May 13, 2023 10:24 am


Originally Posted by enviroian (Post 35247063)
You can expect to be sitting coach.

:o

That's about what I figured... Thanks for the confirmation bias

ghsbass0406 May 13, 2023 10:32 pm

EXP
5/7 SNA-PHX, paid ticket, first flight of day, purchased 10 days out, cleared at T-48- 18 on the list with 1 clearing DOD.


5/7 PHX-DFW, award ticket, last flight of day, purchased 48 hours out, cleared at T-36. 16 on the list and 3 clearing DOD.

enviroian May 14, 2023 12:23 pm

My first flight out of TPA since moving here...upgraded to AUS tomorrow on a 319 no less.

TarsTarkas May 14, 2023 12:43 pm


Originally Posted by lowkeyflyer (Post 35245749)
What can I expect as EXP with 0 LP on this itinerary?

SNA->PHX
PHX->IAD or DCA

Leaving Monday morning or Sunday night.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but the only way you could be an EXP with 0 rolling LPs on May 12th 2023, is if you achieved EXP somewhere in April 2022 and then entirely stopped earning LPs for the next 12 months up to the date of your post.

Is that accurate?

Gary2T May 15, 2023 9:01 am

After lurking here for years, I'll jump in. First year ever having status. Lowly Gold with ~10k LP so quite surprised this past week with getting my first upgrades.

Gold - traveling with one other person.
5/10 ABE-CLT CRJ900, 1 of 2 (my companion) on the waitlist. 1 seat available. Claimed it at the counter.
5/10 CLT-MCO A321, both cleared at T-24.

5/14 MCO-CLT A321, both cleared at T-24.
5/14 CLT-ABE CRJ900, both cleared at T-24.

Didn't keep track of any waitlists after clearing.

newsmanhoss May 15, 2023 5:48 pm


Originally Posted by Gary2T (Post 35251267)
After lurking here for years, I'll jump in. First year ever having status. Lowly Gold with ~10k LP so quite surprised this past week with getting my first upgrades.

Gold - traveling with one other person.
5/10 ABE-CLT CRJ900, 1 of 2 (my companion) on the waitlist. 1 seat available. Claimed it at the counter.
5/10 CLT-MCO A321, both cleared at T-24.

5/14 MCO-CLT A321, both cleared at T-24.
5/14 CLT-ABE CRJ900, both cleared at T-24.

Didn't keep track of any waitlists after clearing.

Thanks for the data points! That's a great success rate, especially as a Gold with a companion!

ryanbriar May 15, 2023 9:21 pm

Rundown from the beginning of this week:

BOS-ORD Sunday night A321: ended up paying the $69 to up-fare as it was J4 a few days out and I wanted to lock in the extra space. List was about 25 deep prior to the flight being delayed 3+ hours. Suffice it to say, I think eight seats ended up open for upgrades when it actually took off.

BOS-ORD early Monday 738: Grabbed the last seat in J given the Sunday delay and we went out with around 20 on the list.

ORD-BOS Monday evening 738: purchased around 3.5 days out and immediately cleared — flight was wide open. Went out with 18 on the list with two clearing.

ORD-DCA Monday evening 738: Was originally going to be on this before a change in plans. Cleared at the EP window.

lowkeyflyer May 15, 2023 9:29 pm


Originally Posted by ryanbriar (Post 35252886)
Rundown from the beginning of this week:

BOS-ORD Sunday night A321: ended up paying the $69 to up-fare as it was J4 a few days out and I wanted to lock in the extra space. List was about 25 deep prior to the flight being delayed 3+ hours. Suffice it to say, I think eight seats ended up open for upgrades when it actually took off.

BOS-ORD early Monday 738: Grabbed the last seat in J given the Sunday delay and we went out with around 20 on the list.

ORD-BOS Monday evening 738: purchased around 3.5 days out and immediately cleared — flight was wide open. Went out with 18 on the list with two clearing.

ORD-DCA Monday evening 738: Was originally going to be on this before a change in plans. Cleared at the EP window.


List was about 25 deep prior to the flight being delayed 3+ hours. Suffice it to say, I think eight seats ended up open for upgrades when it actually took off.
If I'm following correctly, is this because the people didn't want to wait for 3 hours so just left the airport? And as a result there were 8 seats open in J?


​​​​​​​purchased around 3.5 days out and immediately cleared — flight was wide open. Went out with 18 on the list with two clearing.
​​​​​​​And how about this one?

jamabam May 15, 2023 9:33 pm


Originally Posted by ryanbriar (Post 35252886)

ORD-DCA Monday evening 738: Was originally going to be on this before a change in plans. Cleared at the EP window.

Whenever I have to last minute change in plans after already clearing an upgrade, I think to myself "well I'm about to make someone's day!"


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