How'd you make out? Was my guess in the ballpark?

I'm an EP and flying with a non status companion on 05/18 JFK to LAX AA 300..
I have had no luck with BXP1 upgrades and EF for the month shows no upgrade availbility on any of their legs
Anyone else experiencing this issue with the JFK to LA Flagship routes? or any luck getting upgraded on those flights especially with a companion?

Miles + $
 

Having descended from EXP -> PPro, my already sketchy upgrade % has declined as has my standing on the wait list. To compensate, I have started applying to be on the wait list for using miles and $, which has been somewhat successful. This morning, I was stunned to see that I had been upgraded from BOS -> PHX on 5/10 (7 days out!). It was a recent booking that priced out at > $1,100, but the seat choices on booking were really slim; only middle seats in coach. On the way out, I am still in 27 E, but delighted to have moved from 16 E - 2 A on the way back. A few days I called to check on upgrading, and was told first was sold out on the flight to BOS, but I could upgrade on the way back for $600. Passed on that, but now have the upgrade for 15K miles + $75.

Got upgraded 3/4 times as PP 5k LP

For what it's worth, I've been noticing much longer upgrade lists on the LAX-JFK/BOS redeyes. Last night, AA28 went out with 20 on the list.

Yup. I was booked on AA300 next Wednesday and had been on the SWU list for a few weeks with no movement. My plans changed and I’m now going JFK -SFO on AA117, and the upgrade cleared right away.

LAX has been much more competitive in the last year or so, to the degree that I’m finding myself often booking into B6 Mint when I find a decent fare.

Got a couple of upgrades recently:

PP ~130k rolling LPs

03MAY RDU-LGA comp upgrade at T-48 (A319 showing J3 at around that time)
06MAY JFK-SFO comp upgrade at T-60 (A321T showing J5 at around that time)

I've been watching an LAX-JFK flight that I am in in Y and currently waitlisted for an E-VIP.

T-8 days
F7A7J6Y7 3 occupied seats in F, 14 occupied seats in J, Y wide open

T-7 days
F0A0J3Y7 3 occupied seats in F, 14 occupied seats in J, Y wide open. F went from 7 to 0 overnight, but only 3 occupied seats still

T-6 days
F0A0J0Y7 3 occupied seats in F, 19 occupied seats in J, Y wide open

I'm thinking J is oversold here by 7??

Tried to check in this AM for AA 2402 and got a message that I needed to check in at the airport. Still had 27E. Called the help desk (1.5 hour wait - used call back). No explanation except to get to the airport earlier. Checked tonight (T 12 hours) and was upgraded to 2 D (!). Still need to check in at the airport, but very grateful. This is a VERY full flight with FC having been full ever since I booked with only 4 middle seats in coach available this morning.

Are my chances of an upgrade less when purchasing basic economy ticket? Flying a not so popular route middle of Labor Day weekend. F currently empty..

I don't believe having a BE ticket changes your position on the upgrade list. You will still have the same chances of clearing, based on your rolling number of loyalty points earned in the previous 12 months.

Your chances remain the same regardless of the ticket you're flying. Case in point, my buddy and I are both EXPs and we recently flew on the same flight. I had a BE ticket and his was regular main cabin. We both cleared, but I cleared first, 24 hours earlier than him.

Thanks for the replies. BE it is.

Just be advised that a BE ticket can't be changed, and you will earn a lot fewer LPs with that ticket. Those are the only real drawbacks.

First year as EXP and I've had a good run until today, clearing all of these:

SFO-PDX both ways on Alaska
SFO-DCA both ways on Alaska
SFO-DFW one way Saturday morning (at ~72 hours)
DFW-CLT one way Friday afternoon (at 100 hours)

My luck seems to be running out today with CLT-SFO, 7/16 on the waitlist at the moment and 0 seats showing up as available.