AA wants $242 much more than it wants to reward your loyAAlty

i'm a newbie here, but will likely get to >300k LP in my first year going for EP - two questions:

- i know it depends on what days, whether i'm flying into hubs, etc, but what a reasonable expectation for upgrades? 50%? Based out of BOS
- for upgrade probabalities, do you think there is much value to stretching from 250k to 300k, after i get my second set of SWUs with 250k? I'm also Mosaic but think I can still attain both, i.e. dont need to flip my spending from AA Citi Executive Card to Barclays Jetblue card in Jan/Feb

appreciaet all the insight from this board!

Should do better out of BOS than DFW for sure, but it depends on your flying patterns. Could be 75%+ if you aren't flying peak biz travel days.

Beyond 250k you're mainly trying to prioritize over other EXPs - really tough to know where the average EXP stands in terms of LP but I would guess that the majority are just barely making it to the 200k or 250k threshold.

I'm not too far behind at 250K LP and without buying F or usually taking an upgrade offer I'd be sitting in Y 50% or less. And I fly at non business peak times. Lots of Saturday, Tuesday and Wednesdays. People are paying to sit up front. "Peak" times are meaningless.

Bangor Maine to DCA today. Cleared at the gate. AA held 8 FC seats for upgrade. Offered it for 97$ for a couple of days with no takers. Flying DCA to ORD on Sunday. 3 of 8 FC seats still open.

Plat, ~110K LP
10/2 AA5486 PHL-DCA cleared at T-5 (was just below 90K LP at the time)
10/20 AA5245 DCA-ALB 3/11 for 0 seats
10/22 AA5245 ALB-DCA 5/10 for 1 seat

Platinum (unsure LPs)
10/21 AA475 LAX-ORD didn't clear - was 3/11 with 1 seat available

10/23 DCA-CLT cleared - was 1/29 with 4 available seats. Must have been a cancellation.
10/23 CLT-GCM currently waiting - 6/28 30 with 0 available seats. 28 30 upgrades to GCM? Sheesh...

So I was wondering your thoughts some input on trying to get to J from MC for LAX-HND & HND-LAX. Not overly enthusiastic about a 788 w/ likely Zodiac seats however I am not sure 12 hours in Y is going to leave me feeling too good. I only want to use 25K miles so basically I want to just do 1 way on the upgrade. If I request it for both whichever hits first will obviously take the 25K at which point I could take off the request and then look for a good in app buy up. What I am noticing now is after adding the upgrade request to the outbound I no longer see any in app upgrades.

Interestingly despite adding the upgrade request to the return last night it must have not been done correctly by the agent as its not there. The in app upgrade to PE is there and I clicked on it and to my surprise once you confirm you want to proceed there is actually an upgrade to J. It is only $700 and I feel like I would be silly not to take it. The J ticket is showing $4400 and I paid $324 for the MC ticket so for $1024 total thats a pretty sweet deal. I know its up to each person to decide if the money is worth it but this does sound like a good to deal to you all? Also, is it cusotmary to see both a PE and J upgrade offer b/c on the first screen it says the upgrade is $350 to go to PE but then if you click that as I said you see the J offer.

It makes me wonder if I should go to the outbound and cancel my upgrade request just to be able to see if they have a great offer up to J.. Btw, whats also weird is the outbound on a Sunday in November has 14 seats left in J but the seat map for the return (9 days later on a Tuesday) has only 3 seats left in J. Just surprised 9 days more out in the future and so many less seats. Yet the flight with only 3 left is showing this great $700 offer which I feel as though I should take b/c my chances of getting the miles & co-pay on that is going to be tough with only 3 left. So maybe smart to take the offer on the return and hope with 14 seats left on the outbound the $350 +25K miles hits.

Additional question that I cant seem to find anywhere.......If I call in and take off my request for a miles + copay upgrade so I can see any current in app offers am I hurting my chances of getting the upgrade if I then have myself put back on the list? The order doesnt have to do with when you put yourself on the list right? I just cant see any of the in app upgrades anymore and at first I thought they were only to PE so I wasnt interested but for my return trip where I did not have the upgrade reqeusted they offered me a really great J buy up and I did it but I cant see anything now as I guess once you put yourself on the miles + copay list the in app upgrades go away.

Reporting back on this. Applied SWUs two weeks ago and got an email promptly at T-104 hours saying complimentary upgrades confirmed for DFW-HNL. I thought it was an IT glitch and called in to extend the instrument to the unconfirmed short-haul leg, and the agent insisted that my comp upgrades cleared before the SWUs so she was going to remove the instruments from the reservation.

PlatPro ~ 120k LPs
10/5 DFW - ANC No upgrade, 2/12 at time of boarding.
10/8 ANC - DFW No upgrade but offered paid upgrade w/ points or cash up to 24h before the flight. This rubs me the wrong way since we're promised upgrade confirmation long before the 24h window.

Huh? No, AA does not promise upgrade confirmation "long before the 24h window". It in fact does not promise upgrade confirmation at all..

You can be "rubbed the wrong way" because AA is seemingly emphasizing selling upgrades over complimentary upgrades. Many are. But upgrades "can clear as soon as the upgrade window opens" should not be understood as "upgrades will be confirmed at the window."

"As early as"

Key words re upgrades.

Upgraded but did not take miles or charge fee
 

@ T 24' CMH -> PHX .

Had requested miles and $ upgrade (X 2 for Mrs R. & me) at booking, on waiting list since Sep 25, 2023. Woke up this morning at 6:30 AM, checked ITN for ou 7:34 AM flight, saw blanks at our seat assigments (were 9C/D), chose "select seats", and was able to select first class seats (together!) AND since it was an T24' +1' able to select our meals. They did not take mile, charge me to fee, or make me call reservations to rebook the flight, which I have had to do in the past when a milage upgrade clears. Thus, it was complementary upgrade for which I & my partner are eligible as PPro.

Nice that complementary upgrade "trumped" miles/fee.

Happy boy.