Plat:
8/18/23 LAX-JFK AA10 A32T:Cleared into J at T-27 (Award)
8/19/23 JFK-BOS AA4363 E75: Cleared at Window (Award)
8/21/23 BOS-CLT AA1449 737: Finished 7/20 on list, 1 cleared at the gate
8/21/23 CLT-IAH AA1840 Cleared at Window, missed to due MX delay
8/22/23 CLT-IAH AA1478 7M8 Rebooked into F due to IROPS, 31 left on the list

PlatPro:
9/1 trips on same itinerary
AA2420 IAH-DFW 737-800, cleared T-26
AA1039 DFW-LAX A321, cleared T-27
AA2205 LAX-HNL A321neo, ??cleared timing (all domestic first class seats were full at T-24 on expertflyer), but got seat assigned after calling PlatPro desk at T-8 as well as email confirming 15k mile upgrade redemption after my call

(I believe there were at least 12 on waitlists for each leg as well)

For AA2205- I also called reservations a week ago to waitlist myself for miles+copay upgrade (15k+$175 in my case).
First two legs were complimentary, last leg was interesting for me at least because not sure when the upgrade cleared exactly.
I had a MCE 17F seat selected on the last leg but then after I woke up this AM, no more seat assignment showing up online/on AA app for that leg. After checking in at IAH I got printed boarding passes that showed showed my 17F seat on AA2205.
Fast forward to when I am boarding AA1039 and I recheck expertflyer then, I see that there are new 2 first class seats open. At which point when I call PlatPro line, they said I actually got cleared for the business class upgrade last night but not sure why I didn’t get a seat assignment. Thankfully the desk said they could (and did) assign me one of the two empty seats. I was not able to get my new boarding pass printed though until I asked an AC agent to help sort things out (and apparently swipe my credit card for the $175 portion of copay)

9/9-9/10
AA683 HNL-PHX, waitlist #3 of 12, no one got upgraded
AA2983 PHX-IAH, waitlist #6 of 13, no one got upgraded

Man, I haven’t flown a ton this year but 0 for 10 on upgrades as an EXP. Flying on a Saturday from DFW to FLL and shocked to see myself number 8 on the list - I guess if you want it, you got to buy the $140 in app upgrade.

The change to the upgrade releases has affected me most with flying with my SO or family. Previously J6 at T48 would clear both of us without incident. However, the last 2 flights went down to J1 overnight with me at #1.

In both flights, I cleared at the gate as the only one (split). I didn't split the record locator as we were mule-ing 8 bags between 3 of us and needed the baggage allowance.

Definitely a change that may need a different strategy going forward.

EP, approx. 200,000 rolling LP:

Cleared 3/4 already for a mid-week trip next week. Note that these were complimentary upgrades, not mileage, and some cleared BEFORE T-100, which is really strange. 2 upgrades on my return flight on 9/7 cleared at the same time as a standard T-100 upgrade on my outbound:

9/6, PIT-ORD AA30, J3 (still waiting)
9/6, ORD-ROC AA3410, cleared at T-100 still at J7
9/7, ROC-DCA AA5351, cleared at T-124 still at J7
9/7, DCA-PIT AA4421, cleared at T-124 still at J7

Rolling 12 month loyalty point count
 

I’m up to almost 300K LPs in the last six months and have been getting lots of upgrades - I’m assuming from my 12 month rolling LP count. I don’t expect to earn as many in the next six months. Did I do a disservice to myself by front loading the LP earning?

9/1 - PHX to ATL: upgraded T-48
9/6 - ATL. to PHX: upgraded T-8

Not bad for a lowly platinum!

My guess is the upgrade percentages will be good for the next 60 days - we're now in the lull between labor day and thanksgiving. ENjoy!

A321T op-ups are fairly common. It's about 50/50 that I've purchased J and sat in J. I've been double-upgraded once. Almost always upgraded from Y to J, and often upgraded from J to F. I once requested a SWU as part of an international J connection through JFK, and they did an op-up before they even processed my SWU. AA tends to oversell J and Y and will bump based on priority. Over July 4th weekend, I was on a flight with 8 F seats and 6 J seats open AFTER all the upgrades processed.

Flying PBI-CLT-MKE tomorrow midday, PBI-CLT is J3, and CLT-MKE is J4. These are both 2-hr legs, no meal service (I feel like shorter legs tend to have more generous ug clearing parameters). They really have become stingy to not clear us! In reading posts, maybe I should look to be cleared around T-12?

PPRO - 47K Rolling Loyalty Pts
8/31 am PIT - CLT: 5/14 on list, no upgrade
8/31 am CLT - ATL: 3/6 on list, no upgrade
9/3 pm ATL - CLT: upgraded T70 hrs with companion, 1 of 9 cleared at gate
9/3 pm CLT - PIT: upgraded T70 hrs with companion, 1 of 13 cleared at gate

I find these statistics quite interesting, particularly the 8/31 CLT-ATL where you were 3/6 and didn’t get the upgrade. I interpret these “small” upgrade lists where a PPro doesn’t clear to mean that there are a lot of people buying the in-app upgrade offers.

Seems like a bit of speculation. Truly we can’t know. The cabin could’ve just been sold out the old fashioned way. After all, he was still 3/6 on the list as a PPro, so 2 people were ahead of him. Could’ve been seats open earlier and a couple of EPs cleared or something.

agreed! Could’ve been a bit of both, the buy upgrade was as low as $54 that I saw and thought the ATL - CLT was a slam dunk for upgrade a few days out but no luck

Perfect 2023 record destroyed last week...

AUS-JFK booked 5 days out before EXP window opened. 3 F seats on an A319 were open at that time. Down to 1 by T-24, then that filled a few hours before flight. Ended up #2 on the list, but no one cleared. Had an exit row window with middle unoccupied, and free wine and fruit+cheese plate, so I think I may have come out ahead.

LGA-DTW booked at the last minute. Normally that flight is an easy upgrade but F was full when booked and it stayed that way. Was #1 on the list. Sat in 8F on the E175 with no one next to me so, again, I was fine with the no upgrade.