Dec 17, 2017, 12:15 pm
Last edit by: aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes."New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017
(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
- Elite status
- Concierge Key
- Executive Platinum
- Platinum Pro
- Platinum
- Gold
- Platinum
- Platinum Pro
- Executive Platinum
- Upgrade type
- Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
- 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
- 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)
- 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
- Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
- Booking class
- Time of request"
- Booking class
- Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
- Concierge Key
See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017
Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017
Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)
Jul 15, 2018 | 12:04 pm
#391
Original Poster
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: DEN
Programs: AA EXP, AA Million Miles, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 2,926
Okay sure, I will be less blanketed. Upgrades on routes between midsized/major US airports on 73Xs and 319-321s are more myth than fact. If the flight is during the workweek and during the daylight, maybe a CK or high EQD ExPlat has a shot at the maybe 1 open seat. Weekends or weekdays late at night -- upgrades are doable if you are a ExPlat. If you fly those local regional flights on CRJ-700/900 or ERJ-175 with an F cabin (which are outsized compared to the main cabin), I am sure upgrades on those short hops are no problem for a broad swath of elites.
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That's my experience. It's no more indicative of a broad fact pattern that you looking at your most recent few flights. Upgrade experience and success rate is variable based on a host of factors.
Jul 15, 2018 | 4:12 pm
#392
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Stilllwater OK (SWO)
Programs: AAdvantage Plat Pro, World of Hyatt Globalist, plain "member" of Marriott, IHG, enterprise, etc.
Posts: 2,000
Ehhh, I don't have enough data, yours included, to really think otherwise. The unique opportunity of being a low-eqd plat pro like I am is to know where the platpro/plat line is. Which is why I am bothering posting my stats here lately. I don't know where the CK/exec plat lines are or the exec plat/platpro lines are, maybe on these lists the top couple are anywhere from relatively low-EQD exec plats all the way to CKs on each flight. All I know, is that on my flights this summer, the platpro/plat line is something like 20th out of 35 most of the time. (3 out of 12 at best if one of the airports isn't an AA hub. And the number of F seats open are somewhere between 0 and 1). Thus, if a Plat or a Gold here asks the question, what is my chances of clearing an upgrade on a domestic weekday daytime flight between two mid to major airports, my answer is simply that there is no chance in heaven nor hell that that upgrade clears.
Jul 15, 2018 | 6:05 pm
#393
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: DTW / SJC
Programs: AA EXP, DL DM, Marriott Titanium, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 821
I cleared plenty of "domestic weekday daytime flights" as a (low EQD) Gold last year - as you said yourself, you don't have the data to make these kinds of generalizations.
Jul 16, 2018 | 8:56 am
#394
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: DCA | DEN
Programs: AA EXP/2.9mm | Marriott LT Titanium 1.6k nights | NEXUS
Posts: 982
On my routes west, thru ORD, CLT or DFW, the last 4 trips outbound have cleared much later than earlier this year. I leave on 19 Jul again thru ORD and its T-70 - have not cleared. For that 321 EF shows 7/0/4 with 11 not assigned. Of the 20 or 21 exit seats, half are open. I figure 1/2 to 2/3 are elites in exit, so with only half occupied here I would think a PP or even. P would have a shot. I am an average-spend eqd exp with 43 segments. Noticeably later to clear the last 2 months, almost always T-30 or less with capacity like this 3 days before on I leave Thursday.
Last edited by AATrout; Jul 17, 2018 at 8:01 am
Jul 17, 2018 | 7:59 am
#395
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: DCA | DEN
Programs: AA EXP/2.9mm | Marriott LT Titanium 1.6k nights | NEXUS
Posts: 982
As a postscript to mine yesterday, this is as unpredictable as it gets. My 19 Jul ORD-DEN 738 connection has shown 1/0/0 of EF for 4 days and 6 of 16 seats unassigned. Got the upgrade an hour ago. Now it is 0/0/0 with 3 unassigned and 6 of 12 exit open. Put another way, i figure a PP or P in one of those seats has a good chance, as I am an average EP for EQD.
OTOH my 1st 19 Jul leg DCA-ORD earlier that day still shows 7/0/4, seats in J still wide open. I have not cleared yet. I think some of this is, as Ive opined before, due to DCA being a hub near lots of convention/special events. Some of those folks buy up to J to make an infrequent trip a bit more special. And Congress, their staffs and the press doing last minute trips midday, so I dont expect to clear until late Wednesday if at all. Dont really care- this is a sort hop, but the longer connection to DEN it is good to be up front.
Probably overthinking this but the intricate plans to travel in and out of Elite hubs and picking the best days is still a crapshoot. But one guy told me on Thursdays in and out of ORD its better to be outbound, since its a major metro area -vs- DEN and the bulk of business traffic will be folks wrapping up a trip rather than starting one, meaning better upgrade chances. Makes sense I suppose.
What I can attest to is: departing from DEN for anywhere but DFW usually no problem clearing early. I dont think DEN has a dense elite AA population.
OTOH my 1st 19 Jul leg DCA-ORD earlier that day still shows 7/0/4, seats in J still wide open. I have not cleared yet. I think some of this is, as Ive opined before, due to DCA being a hub near lots of convention/special events. Some of those folks buy up to J to make an infrequent trip a bit more special. And Congress, their staffs and the press doing last minute trips midday, so I dont expect to clear until late Wednesday if at all. Dont really care- this is a sort hop, but the longer connection to DEN it is good to be up front.
Probably overthinking this but the intricate plans to travel in and out of Elite hubs and picking the best days is still a crapshoot. But one guy told me on Thursdays in and out of ORD its better to be outbound, since its a major metro area -vs- DEN and the bulk of business traffic will be folks wrapping up a trip rather than starting one, meaning better upgrade chances. Makes sense I suppose.
What I can attest to is: departing from DEN for anywhere but DFW usually no problem clearing early. I dont think DEN has a dense elite AA population.
Jul 17, 2018 | 9:14 am
#396
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Santa Barbara, CA, Park City, UT
Programs: AA EXP, Delta Silver, Marriott Plat,Hilton Diamond, Hyatt Globalist, IHG Plat, AF plat
Posts: 1,002
LAX to MCO in October
Booked in N economy, Plat Pro. Was considering using miles for upgrade but currently not available. If waitlisted for mileage upgrade is that any different priority than for a complimentary upgrade? With such a long flight I’m happy to pay the miles and $75 but not waste them.
what are the chances of complimentary upgrade on that route? Wednesday, 8:10am, 738 aircraft.
Booked in N economy, Plat Pro. Was considering using miles for upgrade but currently not available. If waitlisted for mileage upgrade is that any different priority than for a complimentary upgrade? With such a long flight I’m happy to pay the miles and $75 but not waste them.
what are the chances of complimentary upgrade on that route? Wednesday, 8:10am, 738 aircraft.
Jul 17, 2018 | 10:05 am
#397
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Los Angeles& Telluride
Programs: UA1K, 1MM,AA Exec. Platinum, Global Entry, Nexus
Posts: 733
As an Exec Plat, I've seen my free upgrades diminish. I seem to end up #1 on the list. Fly LAX-IND and scored an upgrade at T24. Not bad for an 8 seat F cabin on A319. Prior to this year, I would say my upgrade percentage was about 60%. Primary markets I fly domestic are LAX- DFW, ORD, SFO and an occasional JFK.
Jul 17, 2018 | 10:25 am
#398
Suspended
Join Date: May 2013
Location: NYC
Programs: DL Diamond, AAdvantage EXP, Hyatt Explorist, HHonors Diamond, Avis First
Posts: 7,344
There must be a couple conferences going on in Chicago this week because most of the ORD-LGA flights tomorrow are all sold out in FC.
Jul 17, 2018 | 1:20 pm
#399
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,158
LAX to MCO in October
Booked in N economy, Plat Pro. Was considering using miles for upgrade but currently not available. If waitlisted for mileage upgrade is that any different priority than for a complimentary upgrade? With such a long flight Im happy to pay the miles and $75 but not waste them.
what are the chances of complimentary upgrade on that route? Wednesday, 8:10am, 738 aircraft.
Booked in N economy, Plat Pro. Was considering using miles for upgrade but currently not available. If waitlisted for mileage upgrade is that any different priority than for a complimentary upgrade? With such a long flight Im happy to pay the miles and $75 but not waste them.
what are the chances of complimentary upgrade on that route? Wednesday, 8:10am, 738 aircraft.
Jul 18, 2018 | 12:56 pm
#400
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: ALC
Programs: AA PP, DL PLT, Bonvoy LT Titanium, HH LT Diamond, National Executive Elite
Posts: 13,370
As a PLT and based in PHX upgrades are a dream, however, there are some sweet spots, Friday evening, Sat and Sunday mornings PHX-SAN have been upgraded about 80%. I might have found a unicorn PHX-SAF (Santa Fe NM) we have taken this trip 3 times, first time out no upgrade (Mondy flight) return was Sat both us upgraded) We have left Wed and returned Sat (upgraded both times) This is on CRJ-700 only one flight a day, leaves in the late afternoon and returns early evening. With PLT I like that I can choose MCE seats at booking which makes for a nicer ride.
Jul 18, 2018 | 10:34 pm
#401
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: NYC
Programs: AS, AA, UA, Hilton, Marriott, Caesars DE
Posts: 2,542
I posted this incorrectly in another thread, so hoping I have more luck here. Mods not sure if its possible to delete other post to keep this one if its a better thread for.
I am booked on a flight tomorrow night that has 7 F seats available, almost 24 hours before check in, so I assume it is a pretty elite light flight, also considering MCE is 85% empty. I do not want to use my 500 Mile stickers, since it would take 4 to upgrade and buying them outright would cost as much as upfaring. I know AA sells F T-24 to non-elites, is there any way to buy up as an elite with the same cost? Pretty annoying we have to use stickers, when upgrade costs are cheaper in cash for non-elites.
I am booked on a flight tomorrow night that has 7 F seats available, almost 24 hours before check in, so I assume it is a pretty elite light flight, also considering MCE is 85% empty. I do not want to use my 500 Mile stickers, since it would take 4 to upgrade and buying them outright would cost as much as upfaring. I know AA sells F T-24 to non-elites, is there any way to buy up as an elite with the same cost? Pretty annoying we have to use stickers, when upgrade costs are cheaper in cash for non-elites.
Jul 18, 2018 | 10:43 pm
#402
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: DTW / SJC
Programs: AA EXP, DL DM, Marriott Titanium, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 821
I posted this incorrectly in another thread, so hoping I have more luck here. Mods not sure if its possible to delete other post to keep this one if its a better thread for.
I am booked on a flight tomorrow night that has 7 F seats available, almost 24 hours before check in, so I assume it is a pretty elite light flight, also considering MCE is 85% empty. I do not want to use my 500 Mile stickers, since it would take 4 to upgrade and buying them outright would cost as much as upfaring. I know AA sells F T-24 to non-elites, is there any way to buy up as an elite with the same cost? Pretty annoying we have to use stickers, when upgrade costs are cheaper in cash for non-elites.
I am booked on a flight tomorrow night that has 7 F seats available, almost 24 hours before check in, so I assume it is a pretty elite light flight, also considering MCE is 85% empty. I do not want to use my 500 Mile stickers, since it would take 4 to upgrade and buying them outright would cost as much as upfaring. I know AA sells F T-24 to non-elites, is there any way to buy up as an elite with the same cost? Pretty annoying we have to use stickers, when upgrade costs are cheaper in cash for non-elites.
Jul 19, 2018 | 12:39 am
#403
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: HND
Programs: AA EXP, UA 1K
Posts: 1,237
Any recent data points on waitlisted SWU upgrades clearing NRT-DFW?
Jul 19, 2018 | 5:21 am
#405
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: HND
Programs: AA EXP, UA 1K
Posts: 1,237
Very jealous - flying December 15 and has been C0 for two months now. Have EF alerts set up but still check everyday hoping to spot something...