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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Dec 17, 2017, 12:15 pm
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Last edit by: aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
  • Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
      • Executive Platinum
        • Platinum Pro
          • Platinum
            • Gold
    • Upgrade type
      1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
        • 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
          • 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

      • Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
        • Booking class
          • Time of request"


See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Jul 23, 2018 | 5:16 am
  #421  
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Originally Posted by redtop43
Question about upgrades (I hope this is the right thread):

Suppose I am PlatPro and flying with a non-status companion on the same record on a non-award ticket. Is it true that we will both get upgraded based on my priority, and that if we do I'll have to pay for her upgrade with stickers?

What happens if I'm on a paid ticket and she's on an award ticket? I don't know if PP are even eligible for upgrades on award tix.
If they are both paid tickets then yes, you can upgrade both of you based on your status, with her upgrade paid for using stickers from your account.

PLT Pro is not eligible for sticker upgrades on award tickets. So if you're on a paid ticket and she's on an award, you could only upgrade yourself.
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Old Jul 23, 2018 | 11:32 am
  #422  
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[QUOTE=Uzzar;30001570]
Originally Posted by beachfan
I learned that if you use miles/copay and then board because they said they'd get you, then your chances of upgrading are close to 100%. They got CKs and SWUs users but passed me over to a ExPlat lower on the list relying on complimentary upgrades because the said they didn't have time to process the copay if I've boarded. In spite of telling me they'd get me.
...
[/QUOTE

Was this international or domestic? Also, I don't understand why they cant process all upgrades before boarding apart from waiting for F pax that might have just landed.
Domestic.
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Old Jul 23, 2018 | 8:04 pm
  #423  
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Originally Posted by FlightNurse
As a PLT and based in PHX upgrades are a dream, however, there are some sweet spots, Friday evening, Sat and Sunday mornings PHX-SAN have been upgraded about 80%. I might have found a unicorn PHX-SAF (Santa Fe NM) we have taken this trip 3 times, first time out no upgrade (Mondy flight) return was Sat both us upgraded) We have left Wed and returned Sat (upgraded both times) This is on CRJ-700 only one flight a day, leaves in the late afternoon and returns early evening. With PLT I like that I can choose MCE seats at booking which makes for a nicer ride.
PLT as well and PHX to SLC during week has been 90% upgrade but sucks to use 2 certs for it. Reverse on Sunday is about 80% too unless the 319 in summer then maybe 70%
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Old Jul 23, 2018 | 8:07 pm
  #424  
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Just recently noticed most my requests for upgrades on bookings have been partially wiped away. Some trips only one segment, others the whole trip. Even my upcoming Wednesday trip one segment gone that I should have already been upgraded on given the minimal seats taken.

Anyone having this happen? What is going on with AAs IT?
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Old Jul 24, 2018 | 1:15 pm
  #425  
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Originally Posted by bse118
DEN-CLT-DCA for this coming Tuesday morning cleared at 100 hours (A321/A319).

I continue to clear upgrades on the majority of my domestic flights, with a lot of them coming at 100 hours.
So this DEN-CLT-DCA pairing I was on got FUBARed by weather - so I switched morning of departure to DEN-DFW-IAD.

And ended up clearing the DFW-IAD upgrade (MD80). Second time in the last month I've switched flights due to IROPs and still cleared a last-minute upgrade.

Hard to complain about the domestic upgrade program from where I stand. YMMV.
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Old Jul 24, 2018 | 10:19 pm
  #426  
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PSA: JFK-GIG, MIA-GIG and MIA-GRU has absurd amounts of C inventory open on a lot of days.
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Old Jul 26, 2018 | 3:54 am
  #427  
 
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No status, a family member requested mileage upgrades for me for a PEK-LAX-BOS flight three months ago. LAX-BOS cleared immediately, the PEK-LAX leg cleared now at about a week before for me. There are at least 15 seats still available in J, so I guess they decided I'd waited enough?
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Old Jul 26, 2018 | 6:54 am
  #428  
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AA Gold, DCA->TPA, MIA, CLT, DFW and vice versa have never cleared. Probably a function of DCA elite load.
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Old Jul 26, 2018 | 7:23 am
  #429  
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Recently, have pretty good luck on JFK<->SFO between 2-4 days out. No dice on JFK<->LAX though.
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Old Jul 26, 2018 | 3:53 pm
  #430  
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PLT-$1400 spend-Cleared BWI-CLT at 48 hrs.
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Old Jul 26, 2018 | 8:43 pm
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Originally Posted by bse118
Again - still way too broad. As a relatively low EQD EXP (~$14K), I've been upgraded this year on 737s and A319-A321 on regular weekday daytime flights on: ORD-SEA, DEN-DFW (and the other way round), PHL-DEN, DEN-ORD, MCO-LGA, etc. All midsized/major airports, all during regular "business travel": times. I've missed upgrades on DEN-MIA, MIA-DEN, DCA-CLT, DFW-MCO, and a couple others I don't remember. I don't see much of a pattern there, nor is there enough data to draw any conclusions from.

That's my experience. It's no more indicative of a broad fact pattern that you looking at your most recent few flights. Upgrade experience and success rate is variable based on a host of factors.
I've had pretty good luck this year with upgrades as an low EQD EXP (~15K rolling) based in MIA. My most frequent route is MIA-PHL (and back). Some are during business days, most are Friday/Saturday/Sunday. I think every upgrade has cleared on those, even on the Sunday night flights. Out of approximately 30 segments so far this year, I think I have only missed 2-3 upgrades, one of which was MIA-LAX (I cleared into the last seat at the gate on LAX-MIA). MIA seems underrepresented on FT (just an anecdotal observation, I'm new to FT).

YMMV for sure...I feel bad for the DFW folks who seem to clear few if any upgrades worth getting.
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Old Jul 30, 2018 | 11:10 am
  #432  
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I am flying DFW-MBJ on Wednesday, August 1st. I have not cleared, just yet. What are my odds of seats in Business?
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Old Jul 30, 2018 | 11:46 am
  #433  
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SNA-DFW 27 Jul 12:40p departure... #2 on the list.

I did confirmed stand by to this flight, however. And the EXP agent earlier that morning told me F was sold out.

Then the 11:40a to DFW went MX and was delayed 3 hours and AA bumped a lot of pax to our flight. Even a CK was sitting in the window 14A exit row in front of me. Had a nice Cadillac transfer awaiting him on arrival at DFW, however.
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Old Jul 30, 2018 | 12:28 pm
  #434  
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Originally Posted by ilkhats44
I am flying DFW-MBJ on Wednesday, August 1st. I have not cleared, just yet. What are my odds of seats in Business?
Low probability unless you're a CK or maybe EXP - assuming you're on AA2726, ExpertFlyer is currently showing J1 Y1 which means it's nearly sold-out in both business and coach.
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Old Jul 30, 2018 | 12:36 pm
  #435  
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Originally Posted by aztimm
According to Expert Flyer, there are 6 open seats in F but C=0. In looking at the coach/MCE seatmap, there are some middles open, most aisle/window occupied. It is tough to say if any EXP or PRO's have already been upgraded (or PLAT).

I've sat in 10F on many flights and would argue that it might actually be better than sitting in F. Just grab something to eat at CLT and be prepared to settle in; that seems to be a sure way to get upgraded.
Cleared at T-28. Looks like AA's starting to clear seats T-24 before the first flight, and not T-24 before each segment. That's a change I like.
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