Dec 17, 2017, 12:15 pm
Last edit by: aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes."New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017
(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
- Elite status
- Concierge Key
- Executive Platinum
- Platinum Pro
- Platinum
- Gold
- Platinum
- Platinum Pro
- Executive Platinum
- Upgrade type
- Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
- 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
- 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)
- 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
- Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
- Booking class
- Time of request"
- Booking class
- Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
- Concierge Key
See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017
Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017
Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)
Aug 17, 2018 | 12:05 pm
#481
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: FL, USA
Programs: AA Plat, Hyatt Explorist, Hilton Diamond, IHG Plat, Marriot Gold
Posts: 1,675
Aug 17, 2018 | 12:16 pm
#482
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: KHOU/KIAH
Programs: AA EXP | Marriott LT Plat | Hyatt Explorist
Posts: 13,296
I flew DFW-HNL and OGG-DFW twice this year and did not receive them. You do get a menu card, slightly different catering and bose headsets though,
Aug 17, 2018 | 12:18 pm
#483
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: FL, USA
Programs: AA Plat, Hyatt Explorist, Hilton Diamond, IHG Plat, Marriot Gold
Posts: 1,675
Cool thanks for the info. I had a feeling it was no but I have come to enjoy the bag I got earlier this year on one flights so was hoping for another.
Aug 17, 2018 | 12:48 pm
#484
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: Cornfields
Programs: AA PPRO, HH Diamond, National EE
Posts: 627
No. Didn't receive anything besides a decent meal and a bigger seat. Completely worth it to me though, especially when you have extra 500 Ms to burn.
Aug 17, 2018 | 8:40 pm
#485
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: FL, USA
Programs: AA Plat, Hyatt Explorist, Hilton Diamond, IHG Plat, Marriot Gold
Posts: 1,675
Aug 18, 2018 | 4:19 am
#486
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Live: IWI; Work: DCA/Everywhere; Play: LAS/SJU/MLE
Programs: AA EXP, DL PM, Hyatt Glob, Marriott Ambassador/LTP, Nat'l Exec Elite, LEYE Gold
Posts: 7,466
Aug 18, 2018 | 7:04 am
#487
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: LA
Programs: AA Plat Pro, SPG/Marriott Titanium, Hilton Gold
Posts: 4,225
As a platinum, my PVG-LAX miles/copay upgrade cleared almost an entire month in advance. I've had really good luck this yr on my trips, both international and domestic.
Aug 18, 2018 | 10:56 am
#488
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: DTW / SJC
Programs: AA EXP, DL DM, Marriott Titanium, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 821
Aug 18, 2018 | 11:34 am
#489
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum/MM, DL Gold/MM, Hilton Diamond, Accor Silver, Hertz Five Star
Posts: 7,494
Trying to gauge UG chances on PHL-DUB on Sep 20 (AA722). 12 of the 20 J seats are empty, MCE is pretty full. Me (EXP) and PPro companion. I've never flown out of PHL. Is this route, or routes out of PHL generally, usually elite heavy? Does J typically sell out? I know routes out of CLT to Europe tend to be tough.
Aug 18, 2018 | 1:27 pm
#490
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Manhattan Beach, California
Programs: BMI Diamond Club Gold forever
Posts: 6,892
Interesting data from LHR-LAX yesterday.
We had bought cheap full J tickets ex-CAI that included this flight and when booking last October EF showed A6 so we grabbed 5 of those for 25k miles each and EF then showed A1 for many months. I set an EF alert and tracked the A and C buckets for kicks. A bucket went to zero and another seat in the F cabin was filled. A month or so later same thing and then F1/A0 until day of departure when the last person got the remaining open seat (by gate upgrade I presume) in row 2. By my count, there was at most one paying F passenger and rest of those eight seats were lowly upgraders. Its slow season in August for premium travel, but still, this is supposed to be the route that makes AA/BA tons of money.
Biz cabin wasnt much better, about a week out it went to C7 and stayed that way until departure and when I asked the purser onboard she said they had a number of empty seats in biz.
While I know AA is pulling in big bucks most of the time on this route, it certainly wasnt the case on the flight yesterday. Worth considering this route for next August if you are looking to use miles or SWUs.
We had bought cheap full J tickets ex-CAI that included this flight and when booking last October EF showed A6 so we grabbed 5 of those for 25k miles each and EF then showed A1 for many months. I set an EF alert and tracked the A and C buckets for kicks. A bucket went to zero and another seat in the F cabin was filled. A month or so later same thing and then F1/A0 until day of departure when the last person got the remaining open seat (by gate upgrade I presume) in row 2. By my count, there was at most one paying F passenger and rest of those eight seats were lowly upgraders. Its slow season in August for premium travel, but still, this is supposed to be the route that makes AA/BA tons of money.
Biz cabin wasnt much better, about a week out it went to C7 and stayed that way until departure and when I asked the purser onboard she said they had a number of empty seats in biz.
While I know AA is pulling in big bucks most of the time on this route, it certainly wasnt the case on the flight yesterday. Worth considering this route for next August if you are looking to use miles or SWUs.
Last edited by stephem; Aug 19, 2018 at 10:18 pm
Aug 18, 2018 | 11:09 pm
#492
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 11,010
The Patented Up-Check™ puts your upgrade odds at 18.62% chance of clearing.
Might have to play the split record game to catch the upgrades if they are released one at a time.
Might have to play the split record game to catch the upgrades if they are released one at a time.
Aug 18, 2018 | 11:10 pm
#493
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 11,010
Trying to gauge UG chances on PHL-DUB on Sep 20 (AA722). 12 of the 20 J seats are empty, MCE is pretty full. Me (EXP) and PPro companion. I've never flown out of PHL. Is this route, or routes out of PHL generally, usually elite heavy? Does J typically sell out? I know routes out of CLT to Europe tend to be tough.
Might have to play the split record game to catch the upgrades if they are released one at a time.
Aug 19, 2018 | 4:49 am
#494
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: HND
Programs: AA EXP, UA 1K
Posts: 1,237
Thinking about changing dates to increase my odds. Any anecdotal evidence to do so? Can go either Friday 12/14 or Saturday 12/15 - there are two flights per day morning and evening NRT-DFW on 772. All things being equal (no C available on anything, loads look similar (i.e., just a few seats taken on the maps and J7)), is one better than another to clear 4 EVIPs (attached to an EXP) and 1 miles plus co-pay (no status)?
Aug 19, 2018 | 9:06 am
#495
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 3,616
Thinking about changing dates to increase my odds. Any anecdotal evidence to do so? Can go either Friday 12/14 or Saturday 12/15 - there are two flights per day morning and evening NRT-DFW on 772. All things being equal (no C available on anything, loads look similar (i.e., just a few seats taken on the maps and J7)), is one better than another to clear 4 EVIPs (attached to an EXP) and 1 miles plus co-pay (no status)?