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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Dec 17, 2017, 12:15 pm
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Last edit by: aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
  • Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
      • Executive Platinum
        • Platinum Pro
          • Platinum
            • Gold
    • Upgrade type
      1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
        • 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
          • 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

      • Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
        • Booking class
          • Time of request"


See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Oct 16, 2018 | 1:35 pm
  #631  
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Originally Posted by DMPHL
Time of request does not matter, unless you and another person with the same status and exact same rolling EQD are competing for a spot. Now, if you book the flight after the upgrade window starts, and you might have been upgraded at the window, or you book after all released R space is filled, then yea the time might matter. But in normal circumstances, time of request in no way matters above status at any point.
What if you book with $15K rolling EQD but at departure you have $5K rolling? Do you still qualify at the original value?
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Old Oct 16, 2018 | 1:53 pm
  #632  
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Originally Posted by BLazarus22
What if you book with $15K rolling EQD but at departure you have $5K rolling? Do you still qualify at the original value?
I don't have a source for it immediately handy, but my understanding is the EQD is calculated at every sweep. So if they open up C space a month in advance like they did for my LAX-AKL, they'll calculate it for the twelve months up to that moment. Then if they open up some more right before flight time, they'll do it again and your EQD number and thus place in line might well be significantly different.
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Old Oct 17, 2018 | 5:30 am
  #633  
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This may be covered elsewhere, and if so, apologies.

C4 for my flight Friday (so <100 hours out) per EF. Im still listed as upgrade requested.

I called EXP desk and was told its not about whether C fare is available. Is that correct?
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Old Oct 17, 2018 | 5:43 am
  #634  
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Originally Posted by tismfu
This may be covered elsewhere, and if so, apologies.

C4 for my flight Friday (so <100 hours out) per EF. Im still listed as upgrade requested.

I called EXP desk and was told its not about whether C fare is available. Is that correct?
That depends, are you waitlisted for a SWU or your EXP complimentary domestic sticker upgrade (UDU)?

Complimentary domestic sticker upgrades pull from different inventory (R), this clearing has no correlation with C space being available. So the agent was correct.

But SWUs and miles/copay pull from C, if you're waitlisted for a SWU and see C space open, definitely HUCA.
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Old Oct 17, 2018 | 5:44 am
  #635  
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Originally Posted by tismfu
This may be covered elsewhere, and if so, apologies.

C4 for my flight Friday (so <100 hours out) per EF. Im still listed as upgrade requested.

I called EXP desk and was told its not about whether C fare is available. Is that correct?
If you're talking about complementary upgrades, then yes it is correct. The space you need is R, which is not viewable on EF.
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Old Oct 17, 2018 | 5:50 am
  #636  
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Thank you! Very helpful.
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Old Oct 18, 2018 | 7:02 pm
  #637  
 
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Hoping for some color here. EXP on a Premium Economy seat, trying to use SWU to get to business. Looked on Monday, and there were 5 first class seats, and 4 business class seats available. Looked yesterday and there was only 1 first class seat left, and only 2 business class left.

Is it correct to assume 4 of those 1st class were taken by Business people upgrades? I did notice that as that happened during the week, more business class seats opened up. However, I'm a bit surprised my upgrade didn't clear, as that would have meant at 1 point there were approximately 8-9 business class seats available. I can't imagine for this 1 flight there were 7 people with higher status/EQD than me, so is it safe to assume these were just last minute business class seat purchases? Or possible someone from another business class flight changed to this one?

Only 2 business class seats left, so I'm thinking I have ZERO chance AGAIN :-/
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Old Oct 18, 2018 | 7:24 pm
  #638  
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Originally Posted by shadymg
Hoping for some color here. EXP on a Premium Economy seat, trying to use SWU to get to business. Looked on Monday, and there were 5 first class seats, and 4 business class seats available. Looked yesterday and there was only 1 first class seat left, and only 2 business class left.

Is it correct to assume 4 of those 1st class were taken by Business people upgrades? I did notice that as that happened during the week, more business class seats opened up. However, I'm a bit surprised my upgrade didn't clear, as that would have meant at 1 point there were approximately 8-9 business class seats available. I can't imagine for this 1 flight there were 7 people with higher status/EQD than me, so is it safe to assume these were just last minute business class seat purchases? Or possible someone from another business class flight changed to this one?

Only 2 business class seats left, so I'm thinking I have ZERO chance AGAIN :-/
It's possible that all of them were upgrades, but I wouldn't say it's necessarily likely that they were. After that, even if they were upgrades, that doesn't mean that the available seats would be released to C inventory for SWU. They may have been purchased with cash, or may have been available to book with miles.

What route are you flying? If it's any of the South American routes that uses the 77W (DFW-GRU, JFK-GRU, MIA-GRU, MIA-EZE), I'd be surprised these days for an EXP not to clear a SWU, but still possible. If it's DFW/LAX/JFK/MIA-LHR, it's entirely possible that those seats are all purchased, or that only a couple SWUs clear, and that J and F tickets get purchased close in. Same with DFW-HKG. LAX-HKG should be easier, but depends on the day of the week/season/is still unpredictable.
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Old Oct 18, 2018 | 7:48 pm
  #639  
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DFW-OAK and back this week no upgrade for me. F cabin was zeroed out for days. I have to tell myself before this EQD ranking I would have cleared F days out. Generally speaking is AA selling cheaper F fares? FWIW the folks sitting down weren't biz folks at all and they all looked like they fly NK once a year to visit grandma in Melbourne Beach.
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Old Oct 18, 2018 | 7:53 pm
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Originally Posted by DMPHL
It's possible that all of them were upgrades, but I wouldn't say it's necessarily likely that they were. After that, even if they were upgrades, that doesn't mean that the available seats would be released to C inventory for SWU. They may have been purchased with cash, or may have been available to book with miles.

What route are you flying? If it's any of the South American routes that uses the 77W (DFW-GRU, JFK-GRU, MIA-GRU, MIA-EZE), I'd be surprised these days for an EXP not to clear a SWU, but still possible. If it's DFW/LAX/JFK/MIA-LHR, it's entirely possible that those seats are all purchased, or that only a couple SWUs clear, and that J and F tickets get purchased close in. Same with DFW-HKG. LAX-HKG should be easier, but depends on the day of the week/season/is still unpredictable.
Thx for reply. It's HKG-LAX :-/
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Old Oct 18, 2018 | 7:57 pm
  #641  
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Originally Posted by enviroian
WIW the folks sitting down weren't biz folks at all and they all looked like they fly NK once a year to visit grandma in Melbourne Beach.
Seriously? Because you can tell what a passenger does or what they paid by how they look.

And if you could, guess what - folks flying to see family in Florida have as much right to be on the plane as you do.
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Old Oct 18, 2018 | 8:16 pm
  #642  
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Originally Posted by bse118
Seriously? Because you can tell what a passenger does or what they paid by how they look.

And if you could, guess what - folks flying to see family in Florida have as much right to be on the plane as you do.
lighten up frances

It was a joke and I thought it to be funny.

A little serious are we?

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Last edited by enviroian; Oct 18, 2018 at 10:18 pm
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Old Oct 19, 2018 | 11:36 am
  #643  
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Cleared LAX-AKL AA83 as ExP T-45 Days with Miles & $$. But didn't clear the MIA-LAX segment.... 20+ seats available. Looks like return SYD-LAX only has 3 seats available so if anything happens, it'll be at the airport......
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Old Oct 19, 2018 | 10:52 pm
  #644  
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Originally Posted by enviroian
DFW-OAK and back this week no upgrade for me. F cabin was zeroed out for days. I have to tell myself before this EQD ranking I would have cleared F days out. Generally speaking is AA selling cheaper F fares? FWIW the folks sitting down weren't biz folks at all and they all looked like they fly NK once a year to visit grandma in Melbourne Beach.
Many flights to/from the Bay Area on AA completely sell out in F before the upgrade window, in my experience. I don't find the fares to be that cheap on my routes (usually to/from SFO, DL and UA are about $100 cheaper than AA one-way).

Originally Posted by bse118
Seriously? Because you can tell what a passenger does or what they paid by how they look.
Basically agree with the above... I'd be cautious about any preconceived notions about who has the ability to afford paid F -- particularly in the Bay Area, there are plenty of younger individuals who have the necessary funds, whether work or personal.
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Old Oct 20, 2018 | 9:42 am
  #645  
 
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Originally Posted by HLCinCOU
I don't have a source for it immediately handy, but my understanding is the EQD is calculated at every sweep. So if they open up C space a month in advance like they did for my LAX-AKL, they'll calculate it for the twelve months up to that moment. Then if they open up some more right before flight time, they'll do it again and your EQD number and thus place in line might well be significantly different.
The AA system takes into account some changes over time, but not all. In particular, changing status after a reservation is made can cause a glitch. Here are the particulars: Last year I dropped from EXP to PLT, then this year worked my way back to EXP. I was therefore sometimes making a reservation at one status level and flying at a higher one. Having reached EXP recently, I was surprised this week when for a wide open flight my upgrade cleared at 72 hours, not at 100 hours. Sure enough, when I called the EXP desk they could see me as EXP in the system, but the upgrade request was listed as PRO for the next domestic leg in the reservation. For another upcoming reservation, three legs were shown as PRO and one, the under 500 mile leg, at just PLT. Worth watching for if you are climbing the status ladder. The fix is easy: I asked the agent to clear out the upgrades and then reload them - they now all show EXP in the system.
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