Well I need to buck up then. At only 13k after last week. And after a flurry of TATL in the next few months I�ll be only 21k or so by year end..

One thing I�ve done is to use the Skiplagged app to source flights with routes I've not used before. On Monday for the first time ever, I am routing thru JFK from DCA to DEN.

Upgraded yesterday. I guess that route is light from New York which of course is stuffed with EXPs. Or those that just buy up. Arrives after 2100 local, but that�s fine with me. Im looking forward to a few hours in JFK again.

I find this very strange. As I've said before my rolling EQD hovers pretty steady around 16-17k and I'm at 83% for the year. At YTD 18k I would guess your rolling is something like 21k, which does not at all seem low tier to me. Obviously the city pairs matter a great deal, and certainly my regional-heavy pattern is pretty favorable. When comparing to previous success of course it matters a ton how far in advance you typically booked before the change. Most business travel isn't booked very far ahead, so if you always booked a month in advance it makes sense for it to drop.

I would be very interested in getting a general sense of what sort of places you usually fly, how far in advance you tend to book, and an estimate of your success rates before and after. Just trying to flesh out a better picture of when and why we clear and don't....

When I first started significant travel for work my first long project was in Quincy (should I type that "Quinzy" ) so I did a bunch of COU-ORD-BOS trips, and occasional COU-DFW-BOS. Once I hit Gold status I requested sticker upgrades every time. They cleared fairly regularly, which at the time I assumed was perfectly normal, but now looking back seems weird. I'd ballpark it at something like 20% success rate, which then climbed to maybe 40% when I got to PLT. I hadn't figured out the game yet so I ended that year (2015) still PLT and flew that status most of 2016, till I hit EXP in September. Not sure what it is about BOS, or whether we're just seeing noise in a small sample, but I definitely feel like I did better there than most other places when I was low status.

$17.5k EQD PPRO BOI-PHX A319 (8 seat F) for tomorrow only had two seats taken as of this morning, just checked and now 7/8 seats are filled per expert flyer. No upgrade, now at T-20. Strange to see so many seats get filled so quick without an upgrade on this route.

Can anyone with an expert flyer subscription do a quick search on AA43 from VCE to ORD on 10/18 and let me know how it's looking as far as remaining j seats and if there is any c upgrades available? Thanks in advance!!

Looks like one unassigned seat. J1 R1 D1 I0 C0.

This week's flights:

DEN-PHX, A321, Tuesday morning, cleared at 100 hours
PHX-ELP, CR9, Tuesday midday, cleared at 72 hours
ELP-PHX, CR9, Friday midday, cleared at 100 hours
PHX-DEN, A321, Friday afternoon, clear at 100+ hours (same time as the prior segment)

I am planning to head to Berlin the third week of April (2019) via London preferably on AA50, but I am of course flexible on this to clear my upgrade. My schedule is flexible enough I can fly out any day Sunday-Tuesday. Is there a day typically better for loads to be able to clear? I am used to flying the JFK-LHR route, and have not missed an upgrade yet, so just curious about this route with less frequency. I would be looking for an upgrade from Y to J.

Booking this far out, all else being equal Tuesday will offer the best chance on virtually all AA longhaul routes.

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/amer...er-thread.html

I just spent some work time browsing this thread, ( I know, very productive) but still felt the need to ask. I hate crystal ball type questions, but here it is anyway. I'm taking Mrs. Tack, LAX-HKG on Sunday 11/4/18. We paid for PE, they had a great fare, and are attempting to use SWU's to upgrade. Usually we just buy the class of service we want for international so this is the first time that I have attempted to use my SWU's on a non domestic ittn. I've set an alert for C availability on Exp Flyer. Anyone have a guess as to the ease or head ache in clearing an SWU on LAX_HKG? My spend over the last 12 months has only been about 15k. I just lost some big trips on QR in September, Just wondering if anyone has had some recent experience Thanks for any guesses. And thanks for these types of threads, great info on this one especially.

Cheers!

LAX-HKG flights have been talked about in this thread, but from what I have seen, seats do open up, now the fun begins.

I am seeing a lot of flights like that. From my understanding when you request the upgrade now matters above status before the list goes to the airlkrrm

Time of request does not matter, unless you and another person with the same status and exact same rolling EQD are competing for a spot. Now, if you book the flight after the upgrade window starts, and you might have been upgraded at the window, or you book after all released R space is filled, then yea the time might matter. But in normal circumstances, time of request in no way matters above status at any point.