FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)
Old Oct 5, 2018 | 4:08 pm
  #617  
HLCinCOU
5 Years on Site
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
Originally Posted by enviroian
that's low tier, very low tier. I"m ytd 18K and that's still low. Didn't even come close to an upgrade today dfw-ewr (#8 on the list). I'm not complaining I'm totally fine in 15A but this is a 16 F seat 738 and am just still amazed how eqd ranking has relegated me to the back of bus more than ever before.
I find this very strange. As I've said before my rolling EQD hovers pretty steady around 16-17k and I'm at 83% for the year. At YTD 18k I would guess your rolling is something like 21k, which does not at all seem low tier to me. Obviously the city pairs matter a great deal, and certainly my regional-heavy pattern is pretty favorable. When comparing to previous success of course it matters a ton how far in advance you typically booked before the change. Most business travel isn't booked very far ahead, so if you always booked a month in advance it makes sense for it to drop.

I would be very interested in getting a general sense of what sort of places you usually fly, how far in advance you tend to book, and an estimate of your success rates before and after. Just trying to flesh out a better picture of when and why we clear and don't....
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