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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Dec 17, 2017, 12:15 pm
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Last edit by: aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
  • Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
      • Executive Platinum
        • Platinum Pro
          • Platinum
            • Gold
    • Upgrade type
      1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
        • 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
          • 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

      • Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
        • Booking class
          • Time of request"


See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Aug 11, 2018 | 4:54 am
  #466  
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Originally Posted by whackedspinach
Hi, I need to fly from PIT to SIN on or around 10/5. Looking at google flights, it seems I can connect through DFW or ORD, then HKG or NRT. I would like to upgrade to business using miles+copay and I am currently Gold status with $3.5-$4k 12 month EQD. Does anyone have suggestions on which route will be the most likely to clear an upgrade on the trans pacific leg?
The day of week you travel on will be the biggest factor in either helping or hurting your chances. DFW-HKG is one of the toughest routes to clear. If you can shift your travel dates earlier by a few days to leave on Tues or Wed your chances will greatly improve no matter which route you take. If you must travel on that Friday, it will be tough as a Gold, but I'd just pick whichever of the NRT flights with the most empty business cabin.

Also, from PIT it adds an extra connection, but LAX-HKG is generally one of the easier routes to clear on.
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Old Aug 12, 2018 | 5:17 pm
  #467  
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Hi, I’m flying PVG-LAX on 8/16. Requested a mileage upgrade. Only have lifetime gold now as I don’t fly too often anymore. I’ve been watching this flight on EF and it has been very strange. It will change from J1 to J7 to J0 to J6. It’s all over the place. When I first looked and saw J1, the seatmap was showing 10 empty (I know it doesn’t really mean anything), but now it’s J0 and there’s 20 empty. Nothing seems to be making any sense on this one. Any ideas? I’m desperate for an upgrade. Lol Havent flown Y in 20 years on an international like this and it’s freaking me out. Lol

thanks!
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Old Aug 12, 2018 | 7:03 pm
  #468  
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Originally Posted by dugknight
Hi, Im flying PVG-LAX on 8/16. Requested a mileage upgrade. Only have lifetime gold now as I dont fly too often anymore. Ive been watching this flight on EF and it has been very strange. It will change from J1 to J7 to J0 to J6. Its all over the place. When I first looked and saw J1, the seatmap was showing 10 empty (I know it doesnt really mean anything), but now its J0 and theres 20 empty. Nothing seems to be making any sense on this one. Any ideas? Im desperate for an upgrade. Lol Havent flown Y in 20 years on an international like this and its freaking me out. Lol

thanks!
What does coach look like? I've had a few flights over the years like that where the J number moves around a lot and doesn't really seem to match the seatmap load...upgrades have always cleared.
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Old Aug 12, 2018 | 7:27 pm
  #469  
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Ok, thanks for the help and the little light at the end of the tunnel. It does worry me a bit because I cant even purchase a J ticket on the website.
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Old Aug 12, 2018 | 7:28 pm
  #470  
 
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Originally Posted by dugknight
Havent flown Y in 20 years on an international like this and it’s freaking me out.
I'm trying to drum up support for official recognition of this type of stress caused by the uncertainty of upgrades not clearing, especially when it comes to long-hauls. Interest for this in the psychology community seems to be limited for some reason so I imagine those folks must always fly in paid J.

Mrs EnPremiere puts up with the pacing, fretting, refreshing, anguishing, repenting, sacrificial offerings to the RM dieties, and surprisingly it sometimes works out. At the end of a trip, it's like the movie, Groundhog Day, and it all starts again.
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Old Aug 14, 2018 | 12:06 am
  #471  
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Originally Posted by enpremiere
I'm trying to drum up support for official recognition of this type of stress caused by the uncertainty of upgrades not clearing, especially when it comes to long-hauls. Interest for this in the psychology community seems to be limited for some reason so I imagine those folks must always fly in paid J.

Mrs EnPremiere puts up with the pacing, fretting, refreshing, anguishing, repenting, sacrificial offerings to the RM dieties, and surprisingly it sometimes works out. At the end of a trip, it's like the movie, Groundhog Day, and it all starts again.
It's part of the reason I gave up striving for EXP every year and just flying for fun. So fun, but the stress got to me! My flight is back to J0 for Thurs and it really doesn't look good. Weird how it can go from J0 to J7 over night, then back to J1. Coach is pretty damn full too, so that's what worries me.

Any way to upgrade for cash or miles to PE when checking in or anything like that? It's been a while since I've done all this and all the rules have completely changed. I didn't even know they had PE when I booked this flight or I would've booked directly into it. In fact, the only 2 seats left on the whole plain are in W. Ugh.
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Old Aug 14, 2018 | 9:15 am
  #472  
 
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Originally Posted by dugknight
It's part of the reason I gave up striving for EXP every year and just flying for fun. So fun, but the stress got to me! My flight is back to J0 for Thurs and it really doesn't look good. Weird how it can go from J0 to J7 over night, then back to J1. Coach is pretty damn full too, so that's what worries me.

Any way to upgrade for cash or miles to PE when checking in or anything like that? It's been a while since I've done all this and all the rules have completely changed. I didn't even know they had PE when I booked this flight or I would've booked directly into it. In fact, the only 2 seats left on the whole plain are in W. Ugh.
Depending on your budget, you could call and see if you can upfare to W ahead of any visit the airport. In the same call you ask about confirmable mileage space just in case they see it. It may help to inquire at every step along the way too (from airport check-in to lounge to gate).
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Old Aug 14, 2018 | 1:31 pm
  #473  
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Just cleared a Y-->J SWU for LAX-HND for this Friday (3 days from now). Continuing my streak of never missing a SWU while EXP.
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Last edited by bse118; Aug 14, 2018 at 1:47 pm Reason: typo
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Old Aug 15, 2018 | 12:29 am
  #474  
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Originally Posted by bse118
Just cleared a Y-->J SWU for LAX-HND for this Friday (3 days from now). Continuing my streak of never missing a SWU while EXP.
Nice! I had good luck with LAX-NRT on the way out here too. It seems flights to Japan are much easier than PVG. When I looked for my flight to NRT, it was C6. I noticed a lot more availability for the outbound than my return from PVG, unfortunately. Even when it was J7, they never seem to allocate any C. For good reason, I guess, since it is now full anyway!
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Old Aug 15, 2018 | 7:31 am
  #475  
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I am eyeing FCO at the end of September... anyone have insight on DFW-FCO vs ORD-FCO for a SWU upgrade? Am eyeing these two and would prefer to avoid JFK and CLT if at all possible.

Will be checking EF as well. Just curious if anyone had experience or thoughts on these.
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Old Aug 15, 2018 | 9:06 pm
  #476  
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When I checked in last night, they offered PE for $399. Very tempting, but if my C clears, that’d be another $350. looks like It went from W1 to W7 this morning. I’ll never understand how this works. No upgrades have cleared because it’s still J1, same as it has been for last day or two.

Ill try try and ask them if I can still upgrade to PE if J doesn’t clear for me. I can expense one, but definitely not both.
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Old Aug 16, 2018 | 3:19 am
  #477  
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Originally Posted by Antarius
I am eyeing FCO at the end of September... anyone have insight on DFW-FCO vs ORD-FCO for a SWU upgrade? Am eyeing these two and would prefer to avoid JFK and CLT if at all possible.

Will be checking EF as well. Just curious if anyone had experience or thoughts on these.
For DFW-FCO: We (2 pax, both EXP) flew in late April, both got cleared with SWU at T24. Flight went out with full J cabin. On the return, we got no love, ended up in PE.
No experience with ORD-FCO.
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Old Aug 16, 2018 | 9:33 pm
  #478  
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So I had posted up thread about my Hawaii trip and decided that I would just pay for premium economy on the way back since I really wanted the meal service and better seat but just for giggles I decided to request s 500 mile upgrade ( which I was told here was nearly impossible to get) for my LAX-HNL flight tomorrow and lo and behold, it just cleared within the last hour. I did have to pay $240 as I don't have any stickers to my name. I'm actually sorta excited to try it out although yes I did read that it is nothing special but I am connecting at LAX from East Coast so after 5 hours in economy even though got MCE, figured it be worth the price to have a wider more comfortable seat for the next 5 hours and a meal. So yeah, it looks like there is still upgrade space available on EF.
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Old Aug 17, 2018 | 6:03 am
  #479  
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Originally Posted by miadukes
So I had posted up thread about my Hawaii trip and decided that I would just pay for premium economy on the way back since I really wanted the meal service and better seat but just for giggles I decided to request s 500 mile upgrade ( which I was told here was nearly impossible to get) for my LAX-HNL flight tomorrow and lo and behold, it just cleared within the last hour. I did have to pay $240 as I don't have any stickers to my name. I'm actually sorta excited to try it out although yes I did read that it is nothing special but I am connecting at LAX from East Coast so after 5 hours in economy even though got MCE, figured it be worth the price to have a wider more comfortable seat for the next 5 hours and a meal. So yeah, it looks like there is still upgrade space available on EF.
I've actually cleared this route twice as a low level gold. Just luck of the draw.
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Old Aug 17, 2018 | 10:15 am
  #480  
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Originally Posted by hawkfan7314
I've actually cleared this route twice as a low level gold. Just luck of the draw.
When I flew DFW-KOA-DFW two weeks ago, everyone on the upgrade list (including me) cleared each way. Of course, there are plenty of Hawaii flights that are full up front with paid fares.
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