Last edit by: aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes."New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017
(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
- Elite status
- Concierge Key
- Executive Platinum
- Platinum Pro
- Platinum
- Gold
- Platinum
- Platinum Pro
- Executive Platinum
- Upgrade type
- Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
- 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
- 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)
- 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
- Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
- Booking class
- Time of request"
- Booking class
- Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
- Concierge Key
See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017
Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017
Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)
#692
Join Date: Jan 2012
Programs: AY+ Plat, Marriott Plat, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 2,846
Although I cannot say for sure, I would think that flights with the 77W (aside from DFW-HKG) generally have a relatively good chance of clearing. Aside from that, I would (very generally speaking) look at flights to South America.
#693
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: RDU
Posts: 2,262
The primary issue with the SWU situation is that AA wants to hold onto a possible revenue seat as long as possible before giving it away as an SWU. How do I know this? 1) It's obvious. 2) They've told me.
So there are a few scenarios moving forward:
1) They eliminate the SWU program to avoid frustrating EXP/CK members who demand to be upgraded at time of booking. They let us complain about another devaluation of the program, but at least they don't have to hear us complain about not being able to redeem.
2) They make all SWU's redeemable at time of booking. Sounds great... but this would have an impact on revenue, as well as customer satisfaction for passengers who would otherwise want to book a last-minute (expensive) seat but can't since the cabin is sold out... and yes, there are lots of those people out there
3) They find a solution which involves an immediate redemption option for either 1) booking a minimum fare class in economy, or 2) requiring double SWU's (or some other scenario... like SWU + copay). Without knowing anything about AA's plans, I believe this situation aligns well with AA's behavior and we could see it in some fashion for the future.
I tried to do some very rough math to figure out the situation.
1) AA currently has around 160 'desirable' SWU planes- that is, planes with lie-flat/premium J or F. That includes A330, 757 (some), 767, 777 and 787. Let's assume 10% are not flying for one reason or another.
2) I estimated the number of premium F/J seats at around 30/plane (obviously more on the 777/777W, less on the others).
3) Let's say that each plane does 1.5 international trips/day (Europe flights generally doing 2... Asia flights doing less).
4) Then let's deduct a random 12% for seasonal international routes which go domestic in the offseason.
So that made up math = 2 million 'desirable' seats annually.
I haven't seen an estimated # of EXP/CK in a while, but I'm going to pick 120k as my rough guess. Assuming an average of 5 SWU's per... that would be 600k SWU's out in the wild.
So... if each passenger were to be able to redeem on a premium flight, that would mean about 30% of all premium international seats would be going to SWU's. To be clear, I would love a scenario where I could have instant redemption of SWU's on any trip, but if my math is even close, that would be a hard financial scenario for AA to manage.
So there are a few scenarios moving forward:
1) They eliminate the SWU program to avoid frustrating EXP/CK members who demand to be upgraded at time of booking. They let us complain about another devaluation of the program, but at least they don't have to hear us complain about not being able to redeem.
2) They make all SWU's redeemable at time of booking. Sounds great... but this would have an impact on revenue, as well as customer satisfaction for passengers who would otherwise want to book a last-minute (expensive) seat but can't since the cabin is sold out... and yes, there are lots of those people out there
3) They find a solution which involves an immediate redemption option for either 1) booking a minimum fare class in economy, or 2) requiring double SWU's (or some other scenario... like SWU + copay). Without knowing anything about AA's plans, I believe this situation aligns well with AA's behavior and we could see it in some fashion for the future.
I tried to do some very rough math to figure out the situation.
1) AA currently has around 160 'desirable' SWU planes- that is, planes with lie-flat/premium J or F. That includes A330, 757 (some), 767, 777 and 787. Let's assume 10% are not flying for one reason or another.
2) I estimated the number of premium F/J seats at around 30/plane (obviously more on the 777/777W, less on the others).
3) Let's say that each plane does 1.5 international trips/day (Europe flights generally doing 2... Asia flights doing less).
4) Then let's deduct a random 12% for seasonal international routes which go domestic in the offseason.
So that made up math = 2 million 'desirable' seats annually.
I haven't seen an estimated # of EXP/CK in a while, but I'm going to pick 120k as my rough guess. Assuming an average of 5 SWU's per... that would be 600k SWU's out in the wild.
So... if each passenger were to be able to redeem on a premium flight, that would mean about 30% of all premium international seats would be going to SWU's. To be clear, I would love a scenario where I could have instant redemption of SWU's on any trip, but if my math is even close, that would be a hard financial scenario for AA to manage.
#694
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: New York
Programs: AA, CX, Hyatt, Marriott
Posts: 1,484
I just wrapped up this year's AA metal travel, here are some stats:
Total segment: 22
-Domestic Upgrade: 12/21 (57%)
-SWU/copay: 2/2 (100%, 332 and 757)
Upgrade fail count:
-Thursday afternoon/night: 8/9 (DFW/CLT)
-Friday afternoon/night: 1/9 (ORD)
Delay 30+ mins (2/22)
- ex-ORD (1/2)
- ex-DEN (1/3)
Total segment: 22
-Domestic Upgrade: 12/21 (57%)
-SWU/copay: 2/2 (100%, 332 and 757)
Upgrade fail count:
-Thursday afternoon/night: 8/9 (DFW/CLT)
-Friday afternoon/night: 1/9 (ORD)
Delay 30+ mins (2/22)
- ex-ORD (1/2)
- ex-DEN (1/3)
#695
Original Poster
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: DEN
Programs: AA EXP, AA Million Miles, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 2,581
The primary issue with the SWU situation is that AA wants to hold onto a possible revenue seat as long as possible before giving it away as an SWU. How do I know this? 1) It's obvious. 2) They've told me.
So there are a few scenarios moving forward:
1) They eliminate the SWU program to avoid frustrating EXP/CK members who demand to be upgraded at time of booking. They let us complain about another devaluation of the program, but at least they don't have to hear us complain about not being able to redeem.
2) They make all SWU's redeemable at time of booking. Sounds great... but this would have an impact on revenue, as well as customer satisfaction for passengers who would otherwise want to book a last-minute (expensive) seat but can't since the cabin is sold out... and yes, there are lots of those people out there
3) They find a solution which involves an immediate redemption option for either 1) booking a minimum fare class in economy, or 2) requiring double SWU's (or some other scenario... like SWU + copay). Without knowing anything about AA's plans, I believe this situation aligns well with AA's behavior and we could see it in some fashion for the future.
So there are a few scenarios moving forward:
1) They eliminate the SWU program to avoid frustrating EXP/CK members who demand to be upgraded at time of booking. They let us complain about another devaluation of the program, but at least they don't have to hear us complain about not being able to redeem.
2) They make all SWU's redeemable at time of booking. Sounds great... but this would have an impact on revenue, as well as customer satisfaction for passengers who would otherwise want to book a last-minute (expensive) seat but can't since the cabin is sold out... and yes, there are lots of those people out there
3) They find a solution which involves an immediate redemption option for either 1) booking a minimum fare class in economy, or 2) requiring double SWU's (or some other scenario... like SWU + copay). Without knowing anything about AA's plans, I believe this situation aligns well with AA's behavior and we could see it in some fashion for the future.
A) AA does not change the policy at all. Advance C space continues to be determined by whatever method RM uses today.
(because a few people complaining on FT doesn't actually indicate how AA's overall customer base is feeling)
B) AA formally/officially restricts SWU policy so that SWUs only clear at the gate or within T-24. No advance clearing.
Neither of these would make me miss a beat. 4 years of being an EXP and I've never missed a SWU/copay/BXP request on Y-->J longhauls. YMMV
Advance clearing is nice - but by no means is it the end all / be all of the program.
Last edited by bse118; Oct 27, 2018 at 3:46 pm Reason: typos
#696
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: san francisco
Posts: 236
As an EXP my SWU's have failed to clear 3 times SFO-JFK. So for those of you that have 100% luck - good for you. But experience proves that SWU upgrades are far from a sure thing. And for Dave_261 - I'm not asking for a third of biz class seats to be open, but really... maybe 2 openings a week on each route? Is that a ridiculous ask?
#697
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
As an EXP my SWU's have failed to clear 3 times SFO-JFK. So for those of you that have 100% luck - good for you. But experience proves that SWU upgrades are far from a sure thing. And for Dave_261 - I'm not asking for a third of biz class seats to be open, but really... maybe 2 openings a week on each route? Is that a ridiculous ask?
For the record, I've used 7 SWUs out of 8 attempts; none were available at booking. One gate cleared, most a few days out, and the LAX-AKL rt I haven't flown yet cleared a month ahead. I think SFO-JFK is likely very difficult, both because of the clientele's buying patterns and the equipment involved. Mine have all been spent over an ocean on either 777 or 789 equipment. I've never flown SFO-JFK, but I did successfully do a miles+copay on SJC-JFK the one time I flew that route.
#698
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: New York
Programs: AA, CX, Hyatt, Marriott
Posts: 1,484
As an EXP my SWU's have failed to clear 3 times SFO-JFK. So for those of you that have 100% luck - good for you. But experience proves that SWU upgrades are far from a sure thing. And for Dave_261 - I'm not asking for a third of biz class seats to be open, but really... maybe 2 openings a week on each route? Is that a ridiculous ask?
#699
Join Date: Jan 2012
Programs: AY+ Plat, Marriott Plat, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 2,846
As an EXP my SWU's have failed to clear 3 times SFO-JFK. So for those of you that have 100% luck - good for you. But experience proves that SWU upgrades are far from a sure thing. And for Dave_261 - I'm not asking for a third of biz class seats to be open, but really... maybe 2 openings a week on each route? Is that a ridiculous ask?
#700
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Hoboken, NJ
Programs: AA Gold
Posts: 194
Cleared at T-48 for Tuesday’s AA2719 BOS-DFW.
After not clearing anything until late September, I’ve been on a nice streak lately... Mostly because I’ve been flying at off-peak times, I think.
After not clearing anything until late September, I’ve been on a nice streak lately... Mostly because I’ve been flying at off-peak times, I think.
#701
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: san francisco
Posts: 236
If I were purchasing the SFO-JFK tickets myself, I would just purchase J and be done with it... but it is business travel so I don't get that option.
For JFK-LHR there is availability on A all over the place - so maybe I'll purchase the biz fares and upgrade to first. AA first does not get rave reviews, but I'd still like to try it.
For JFK-LHR there is availability on A all over the place - so maybe I'll purchase the biz fares and upgrade to first. AA first does not get rave reviews, but I'd still like to try it.
#702
Join Date: Jan 2012
Programs: AY+ Plat, Marriott Plat, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 2,846
If I were purchasing the SFO-JFK tickets myself, I would just purchase J and be done with it... but it is business travel so I don't get that option.
For JFK-LHR there is availability on A all over the place - so maybe I'll purchase the biz fares and upgrade to first. AA first does not get rave reviews, but I'd still like to try it.
For JFK-LHR there is availability on A all over the place - so maybe I'll purchase the biz fares and upgrade to first. AA first does not get rave reviews, but I'd still like to try it.
If you are purchasing J on AA, particularly to Europe, I would check AAVacations. Sometimes you can find a good deal.
#703
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: PHX & AGP
Programs: AA Lifetime PLT, Bonvoy Lifetime Titanium, Hilton Gold
Posts: 11,449
As an EXP my SWU's have failed to clear 3 times SFO-JFK. So for those of you that have 100% luck - good for you. But experience proves that SWU upgrades are far from a sure thing. And for Dave_261 - I'm not asking for a third of biz class seats to be open, but really... maybe 2 openings a week on each route? Is that a ridiculous ask?
Admittedly, probably part of the reason my SWU success rate was 100% is because, where possible, I deliberately chose less popular travel times and flights to maximize my chances of clearing. The problem with SFO/LAX-JFK in particular, I believe, is that recently J pricing has become more reasonable to the point that I would just outright purchase J instead of playing the upgrade roulette. I'm thinking I'm not alone in that regard.
#704
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: SFO
Programs: UA 1K, AA EXP, Hyatt Glob, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Plat, Total Wine & More Reserve
Posts: 4,483
If I were purchasing the SFO-JFK tickets myself, I would just purchase J and be done with it... but it is business travel so I don't get that option.
For JFK-LHR there is availability on A all over the place - so maybe I'll purchase the biz fares and upgrade to first. AA first does not get rave reviews, but I'd still like to try it.
For JFK-LHR there is availability on A all over the place - so maybe I'll purchase the biz fares and upgrade to first. AA first does not get rave reviews, but I'd still like to try it.
Last edited by econ; Oct 30, 2018 at 12:45 am
#705
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Chicago
Programs: AA- EXP UA - Silver SPG- PLT Marriott- PLT
Posts: 755
I've never missed a SWU in 8 years. But can definitely feel the squeeze, as they are eliminating chunks of their premium cabins.
One of the big benefits I see of it clearing early, even if only a few days, is if something happens and you need to be rebooked- if you are already cleared in business, your upgrade willl be maintained. We had a flight from Paris cancel earlier this year, thankfully our upgrades had already cleared prior to the cancellation, so we could easily rebook into J. If not, we would have definitely missed the upgrade, since J was all but sold out everywhere.
One of the big benefits I see of it clearing early, even if only a few days, is if something happens and you need to be rebooked- if you are already cleared in business, your upgrade willl be maintained. We had a flight from Paris cancel earlier this year, thankfully our upgrades had already cleared prior to the cancellation, so we could easily rebook into J. If not, we would have definitely missed the upgrade, since J was all but sold out everywhere.