Got email yesterday afternoon that my upgrade (Y-F) is confirmed for the flight tomorrow morning (DFW-SFO). But I've still not received my EF alert notification though. It's like hit-or-miss with these two entities often is the case. But hey, at times, due to the differences with the two synching, I've had some good fortunes booking with SWU's and getting alerts that I was upgraded after the occupied seat shows as available.

Thank you - great point about only changing if we see the confirmable space NRT-LAX. Appreciate it!

Hello - I have read through the forum about seat maps offering a second look at the probability of a SWU clearing (outside of checking for C availability). On an upcoming flight for 11/8, (AA193, LAX - HKG), American has stopped selling anything in business. However, the seat map still shows 5 seats available in J. Is it wrong to assume that people have already booked their ticket and just haven't claimed a seat yet? Or what else would be the cause of those seats appearing unclaimed? Thanks in advance for any input!

It's time for me to start seriously evaluating something.

I will make PP this year with about $12K EQD.

I fly almost exclusively PHL-LAS. On the return I'm often on a redeye. They are LUS321's with 16F seats. Usually a Thursday or Friday night.

I have a pretty strong sense that the LAS-PHL redeyes are not elite-heavy. I have the option of flying LAS-LAX-PHL. The only reason to do it is for 700 extra EQM's, which over the course of a year can add up. However, I would hate myself if I traded a 4-hour trip in F (LAS-PHL) for a 5-hour trip in Y (LAX-PHL).

Are the Th/Fr LAX-PHL redeyes elite heavy? I'm thinking they probably are; that there are road warriors who need the full day in LA. But what is the best way to evaluate my upgrade odds?

I'm thinking I most likely won't spin this wheel. If I want EQM's I would probably buy the occasional F ticket, which also gets me extra EQD's.

But do people have opinions/experience, and is there a way to track this effectively before I start buying tickets for 2019?

Another flight, another Y-->J SWU clearing in advance.

LHR-LAX AA135, 772, Saturday Dec 1 (along with a connecting domestic leg). - so about 3 weeks in advance of departure.

Called in when I saw SWU availability on the AA website.

That's the 10th SWU or BXP3 I have cleared this year, all prior to the gate, and maintains my 100% success rate on international longhaul Y--J SWUs.

I know you posted that for my benefit

I'm wait listed for an SWU upg on flt 101 (LHR-JFK) on 11/26 (two weeks off). EF had been showing J7 (up to 11/9), now it is J5--but the seat map has 17 empty seats(?). I know that seat maps are not a true barometer of real availability, but can there be so many unassigned seats?
I have an EF alert for 101, but there have been instances in the past where my SWU upg without getting an "alert" from EF..,.is AA playing "cat and mouse" with 101?
[After requalifying for EXP and then reaching 150K EQM I was able to use 5 of my 6 SWUs [i]at the time of booking, but at holidays: Thanksgiving eve, Christmas and Easter.]

Who knows. I've seen instances where a seemingly wide open flight in J will drop down below J7 (sometimes to J0), but there ends up being plenty of space and upgrades clear, so it was some sort of inventory glitch or AA removing J seats for sale to protect against an oversold Y cabin, etc. Last year I was on a LHR-JFK that was J0 about a week before the flight in spite of the business seatmap only being 1/2 full, ended up with an op-up at the gate as economy was just oversold.

I cleared DFW-HKG both direction in Jan/Feb 2017; definitely not impossible. As others said, it helps to fly midweek; if you have expertflyer to check J space, so much the better.

Thanks - no Expertflyer here. Our outbound to HKG is on a Wednesday, return is on a Sunday. Guess we'll just keep our fingers crossed!

DFW-PHX continues to be a rough route for domestic UGs. Flew 8:40a to PHX on Sunday morning, was #3 on the list. Agent came to Y and got a CK who was the only one upgraded just before departure.

PHX-DFW last night (Mon) 8:10p departure, #6 on the list. 1 cleared. My rolling EQD is around $20K right now, so not high but also not entirely low, either.

When I looked at both the outbound and inbound 24h before departure on EF, basically every single nonstop (around 8 per day, I think?) was J0. For Sunday and Monday. Wild.

I/m betting more people are paying for F, this could be why your upgrades aren't clearing, when I was flying a lot, my upgrades cleared pretty well.

hell yes that's high. Tell that to the EXP's that were qualifying at 100K EQM'S before the EQD component. They were hitting it with $4K spend. Times have changed! I'm only 17K EQD and I'm in the 4-6 on the upgrade list.

It's not at all high compared to the average.