It's time for me to start seriously evaluating something.

I will make PP this year with about $12K EQD.

I fly almost exclusively PHL-LAS. On the return I'm often on a redeye. They are LUS321's with 16F seats. Usually a Thursday or Friday night.

I have a pretty strong sense that the LAS-PHL redeyes are not elite-heavy. I have the option of flying LAS-LAX-PHL. The only reason to do it is for 700 extra EQM's, which over the course of a year can add up. However, I would hate myself if I traded a 4-hour trip in F (LAS-PHL) for a 5-hour trip in Y (LAX-PHL).

Are the Th/Fr LAX-PHL redeyes elite heavy? I'm thinking they probably are; that there are road warriors who need the full day in LA. But what is the best way to evaluate my upgrade odds?

I'm thinking I most likely won't spin this wheel. If I want EQM's I would probably buy the occasional F ticket, which also gets me extra EQD's.

But do people have opinions/experience, and is there a way to track this effectively before I start buying tickets for 2019?