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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Dec 17, 2017, 12:15 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
  • Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
      • Executive Platinum
        • Platinum Pro
          • Platinum
            • Gold
    • Upgrade type
      1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
        • 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
          • 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

      • Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
        • Booking class
          • Time of request"


See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Jun 20, 2018 | 12:36 pm
  #331  
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Originally Posted by MathMusic
As a Plat Pro with low EQDs you would clear ahead of any Plat members but behind all other Plat Pros. There isn't a zero chance, depending on things at the airport you could clear. I wouldn't hold your breath on the DFW-BOS leg though because of so many Ex Plats out of DFW.
I think the only possibility is if ExPlats were taken care of at T-100 hours with confirmed upgrades already, and then for whatever reason a couple more seats opened up last Friday. About a week ago, there were something like 7 (out of the 16) F seats open so then I thought I might have a shot, -- I don't think there is a way to know how or even when those 7 seats filled though, right.
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Old Jun 22, 2018 | 12:10 pm
  #332  
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I did a same day flight change to an earlier dfw-bos flight today to arrive earlier.
Anyways, 26 people on upgrade list, I was 7 as a plat pro with about 2500 rolling eqds, and nobody on this list cleared. Sitting next to a few exec plats in MCE.
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Old Jun 27, 2018 | 9:34 pm
  #333  
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Does anyone have a sense of how easy of an upgrade PHL-LIS would be in late August? I see some decent C availability in the coming weeks but much less in the last two weeks of August even though many flights are J7 D7 I7. I thought this might be a late August thing but weirdly enough as I move into Sep and Oct, the loads already seem almost completely full, with J<5 in many cases.
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Old Jun 28, 2018 | 1:41 am
  #334  
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AA 192/193 cleared at the time of booking (two weeks out)
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Old Jun 28, 2018 | 4:11 am
  #335  
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Originally Posted by ckx2
AA 192/193 cleared at the time of booking (two weeks out)
What day of the week? J to F?
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Old Jun 28, 2018 | 9:07 pm
  #336  
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Originally Posted by DeepUnderground
What day of the week? J to F?
192 Sunday
193 Friday
Y to J

Was ready to buy J when I saw availability and decided to save a few bucks, as I'm already above and beyond any healthy EQM/EQD point.
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Old Jun 29, 2018 | 4:31 pm
  #337  
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Just took a flight Boston to DFW. Was 16 out of 34 on the upgrade list as low e.q.d. plat pro for a 738. Zero upgrades cleared as first was full. Sat next to two concierge key members this time in mce.
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Old Jun 29, 2018 | 4:39 pm
  #338  
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I flew 76 lhr-dfw yesterday. 12 people were upgraded into J at check in. However it was still C0 on expert flyer.

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Old Jun 30, 2018 | 8:54 pm
  #339  
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I changed my flight AA192 HKG-LAX from a Monday to a Wednesday and my miles upgrade J-F cleared at the time of request.
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Old Jun 30, 2018 | 9:20 pm
  #340  
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Originally Posted by enviroian
I flew 76 lhr-dfw yesterday. 12 people were upgraded into J at check in. However it was still C0 on expert flyer.

IT-wise, how does this happen? Do the GAs open and then immediately fill up the C availability before EF detects it?
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Old Jul 1, 2018 | 9:53 am
  #341  
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Originally Posted by mcrw00


IT-wise, how does this happen? Do the GAs open and then immediately fill up the C availability before EF detects it?
That has been my experience - I have had the same thing happen a few times where I do not get a C alert and get to gate and have been upgraded
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Old Jul 1, 2018 | 2:50 pm
  #342  
 
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I'm looking into flying from NYC to FCO or MXP in middle of September. Looking at ef right now, I don't see any upgrade inventory available on a couple of dates I looked at for either cities. I was thinking of using miles + copay for upgrade. Just wondering if anyone have ideas on what the likelihood of 2 seats becoming available is during that time. So looking at Sep 8 to 15th. Would one be more likely to become available than the other one?
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Old Jul 1, 2018 | 6:20 pm
  #343  
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Originally Posted by tphuang
I'm looking into flying from NYC to FCO or MXP in middle of September. Looking at ef right now, I don't see any upgrade inventory available on a couple of dates I looked at for either cities. I was thinking of using miles + copay for upgrade. Just wondering if anyone have ideas on what the likelihood of 2 seats becoming available is during that time. So looking at Sep 8 to 15th. Would one be more likely to become available than the other one?
Your odds are very good especially if you can depart midweek, i.e. Mon-Wed. Looking at the flights, JFK-MXP looks to be operated with a 45J 772 as opposed to 37J for JFK-FCO. The MXP flights on Sep 10-12 look much less full up front compared to FCO, so that's what I would go with all other things being equal.
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Old Jul 1, 2018 | 7:29 pm
  #344  
 
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Originally Posted by JJeffrey
Your odds are very good especially if you can depart midweek, i.e. Mon-Wed. Looking at the flights, JFK-MXP looks to be operated with a 45J 772 as opposed to 37J for JFK-FCO. The MXP flights on Sep 10-12 look much less full up front compared to FCO, so that's what I would go with all other things being equal.
Thanks a whole bunch.
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Old Jul 2, 2018 | 7:37 am
  #345  
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Originally Posted by mcrw00


IT-wise, how does this happen? Do the GAs open and then immediately fill up the C availability before EF detects it?
Yes. That's likely exactly what happens. EF does sweeps on inventory. The GA can put people into J seats from the UG list without even having to open up some inventory, most likely. Thus evading the EF sweeps.
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