As a postscript to mine yesterday, this is as unpredictable as it gets. My 19 Jul ORD-DEN 738 connection has shown 1/0/0 of EF for 4 days and 6 of 16 seats unassigned. Got the upgrade an hour ago. Now it is 0/0/0 with 3 unassigned and 6 of 12 exit open. Put another way, i figure a PP or P in one of those seats has a good chance, as I am an average EP for EQD.

OTOH my 1st 19 Jul leg DCA-ORD earlier that day still shows 7/0/4, seats in J still wide open. I have not cleared yet. I think some of this is, as Ive opined before, due to DCA being a hub near lots of convention/special events. Some of those folks buy up to J to make an infrequent trip a bit more special. And Congress, their staffs and the press doing last minute trips midday, so I dont expect to clear until late Wednesday if at all. Dont really care- this is a sort hop, but the longer connection to DEN it is good to be up front.

Probably overthinking this but the intricate plans to travel in and out of Elite hubs and picking the best days is still a crapshoot. But one guy told me on Thursdays in and out of ORD its better to be outbound, since its a major metro area -vs- DEN and the bulk of business traffic will be folks wrapping up a trip rather than starting one, meaning better upgrade chances. Makes sense I suppose.

What I can attest to is: departing from DEN for anywhere but DFW usually no problem clearing early. I dont think DEN has a dense elite AA population.